Tony Evans: Change at Arsenal now a bigger risk than when Manchester United replaced Sir Alex Ferguson

The best argument for Arsene Wenger to remain at the Emirates in recent years has been stability. Arsenal were predictable.

They would have spells in the season when they looked like potential champions, get knocked out of the Champions League at the knockout round and any title bid would fizzle out as spring arrived. But a top-four finish was inevitable.

Stan Kroenke was the invisible owner and the boardroom was quietly complacent. There were even a couple of FA Cups in the trophy room to assuage any supporters who were old-fashioned enough to want to win things. All was well at Arsenal. No one seemed to notice that the empire was in decline.

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The realisation is dawning too late. Wenger came out fighting on the final day of the season, claiming that he needs to keep this squad together because they are potentially a title-winning team. The Frenchman is delusional.

Things are unravelling at the Emirates. The board, who have for so long allowed the manager to rule the club unchecked, are beginning to wonder whether they took the policy of “in Wenger we trust” too far. The minority shareholder, Alisher Usmanov, has made a very public offer to buy the club. The timing is crucial. The Uzbek’s power play is an indication that Arsenal are no longer stable. Against Everton, the fans sang “Kroenke, get out of our club”.

Things were a lot more simple when it was just “Wenger out”. The manager has been let down by his board. The 67-year-old has had an almost free rein and the club has come to exist in his image. The only infrastructure is Wengerstructure. It is a dangerous situation and one that is rebounding on the manager. Thoughts about a succession plan have only begun to germinate recently.

The majority of decisions — even those about his own future — have been left to Wenger. When things were going well the manager enjoyed this status. When they are going wrong he feels isolated, lacking support from the board. Putting all the onus on the manager to determine whether he stays or goes leaves Wenger as a lightning rod for criticism.

Yesterday he talked about the “psychological environment” being “horrendous” for the players. Surely Wenger could have dispelled the uncertainty by ending the speculation about his future? The flip side of complete control is it’s hard to complain when you are making the decisions.

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At this juncture it is almost impossible to imagine Arsenal with a new manager next season. Wenger wants to stay. The board have few options.

A change of regime when the team are not involved in the Champions League would be even more dangerous than when Manchester United replaced Sir Alex Ferguson with David Moyes. The capacity for chaos is bigger, the upsides smaller. Arsenal need to create an environment where any new man could thrive.

The nightmare scenario is that Chelsea rout the Gunners in the FA Cup Final. If that happens, the Emirates will be a toxic place next season.

And even if they win the trophy, it will only bring salvation in the short term. Whatever the result, the board meeting after the season will be difficult.

Wenger needs to cede some authority but he will not do it lightly. After having things his own way for so long any checks on his power will feel like treason. The fault lies with Kroenke.

He has let Arsenal and the cash registers tick over without understanding there was a clock ticking on Wenger. What happens on the pitch is a symptom of what is occurring in the boardroom. Arsenal’s indolence has caught up with them. With or without Wenger, there are testing times ahead for the club.