Trump is president. Here's what happens next

Donald Trump now occupies the White House. He has a lot of big plans. So now what?

Trump has handily outlined the things he hopes to accomplish during his first 100 days in office, so Yahoo Finance has assembled a field guide to Trump’s economic agenda, with our own handicapping on how likely he is to succeed on several key initiatives. Here’s what to watch for:

Renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement

Outlook: Likely soon

Trump can do this right away, on his own, with no need for Congressional action. He could also withdraw the United States from the treaty, effective six months after giving notice–or by mid-summer, if Trump acts right away. Trump seems likely to do something along these lines, since this pledge was one of his core campaign promises. The real question is whether Trump’s action on NAFTA will be symbolic or substantive. He could threaten to withdraw, for instance, as a way of gaining leverage over US companies he wants to do more American hiring—then back away from the bluff once concessions on jobs allow him to declare victory. That might not be disruptive at all. But if Trump were to go the distance and pull the United States out of NAFTA, it would depress corporate profits, shock markets and augur even more severe consequences on trade disputes with China.

Rolling back regulations

Outlook: Likely soon, with minimal impact

Trump can do much of this by executive order as well, with no need for Congress. But there aren’t a lot of federal regulations Trump can repeal that will boost the economy or hiring any time soon. Many of the regulations businesses complain about most are state and local rules on things such as permitting, which Trump can’t control. Over time, he could roll back some federal oversight on energy firms, utilities, food and drug makers and other types of companies in ways that could make them more productive. But that will require time-consuming bureaucratic work by agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency, Food and Drug Administration and Federal Trade Commission.

Taking on China

Outlook: Right after NAFTA

Trump also seems determined to rework trade terms with China, much as he plans to do with Mexico. And he has said he’ll declare China a currency manipulator right off the bat. That actually wouldn’t change much, unless Trump followed through with additional threats to levy tariffs on Chinese imports and pursue other punitive measures. As with Mexico, the real question is whether Trump’s moves on China will be for show or for real. If he goes as far as tariffs, China has more leverage than Mexico does to retaliate, which could harm the US economy and damage investor confidence.

Passing sweeping tax cuts

Outlook: Maybe later this year

Congressional Republicans agree with Trump about cutting corporate and personal income-tax rates. But the details will probably take a lot longer to work out than many believe. The tax plan Trump promoted while campaigning would add roughly $7 trillion to the national debt, which won’t fly with deficit hawks, especially in the House. And Trump didn’t specify any spending cuts to offset revenue lost from tax cuts. So he has a lot of negotiating to do with members of the House and Senate about how to cut taxes without running up the national debt. It could take until summer or fall for a clear plan to emerge, and it might not go into effect until next year.

Lifting restrictions on US energy production

Likely this year, with minimal impact

One of the biggest changes under Trump could come at the EPA, which he has pledged to make much friendlier toward the energy industry. But some regulatory rollbacks will be challenged in court, while others could be replaced by stricter rules at the state or local level. Finally, energy firms aren’t likely to produce more oil or gas unless they can sell it profitably, which depends on global prices and markets, not American energy policy. And right now, there’s a glut in energy markets.

Repealing and replacing Obamacare

Outlook: Could dog Trump for years

Trump wants to jump on this right away, but the details are agonizingly complex. Trump has promised “insurance for everybody,” which is way more ambitious than what the Affordable Care Act passed under President Obama offered. If that’s really what he has in mind, it will be way more expensive, too. Meanwhile, it seems unlikely Trump will simply kill Obamacare and leave the 20 million people who gained insurance under the law with no coverage. So while it would be legislatively easy to repeal Obamacare, it could take years for Congress to muster a replacement that meets Trump’s goals while also appeasing Congressional Republicans. This could drag on throughout Trump’s presidency.

Building a ton of new roads and bridges

Outlook: This one could fade

Many people in both parties favor more infrastructure spending—until you have to figure out who will pay for it. Trump’s campaign plan called for a massive $1 trillion in new infrastructure spending—but with one huge catch. Most of that would be private funding, which only works on projects with tolls or user fees—and Americans aren’t about to tolerate new tolls on every highway. Trump, meanwhile, has proposed no new infrastructure spending from the usual source, taxpayer funds. That’s not something Congressional Republicans favor, either. So at the moment, there’s no infrastructure plan on the table that seems plausible and has meaningful political support. Maybe next year.

Rick Newman is the author of four books, including Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success. Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman.