UBS Fights Harry the Otter for Soccer Prediction Crown

UBS analysts are cranking up their spreadsheets to get ahead of the biggest event this summer: The soccer World Cup.

The Swiss giant is putting its money on Germany lifting one of sport’s most prestigious prizes for the 5th time.

UBS's model uses the outcomes of the previous five World Cups and carries the disclaimer that "past performance is no guarantee of future results."

The Swiss bank gives an almost one in four chance of Germany lifting the trophy.

But as with financial markets, banks don't always get it right.

Predictions from Goldman Sachs' economics team for the last World Cup were less accurate than those made by now-departed cephalopod Paul the Octopus.

This time round, the British Broadcasting Corp. is touting Harry the Otter as the go-to sporting soothsayer. The Russia-based animal predicted the Sochi Winter Olympics with an accuracy of 75%, by grabbing pins that represented competing athletes.

Goldman Sachs carefully calibrated statistical model—based on data gathered from international football matches since 1960—was confounded by the unpredictable 2014 World Cup.

Goldman's model scored only a 36.11% success rate in predicting scores.

UBS also got that cup wrong, predicting Brazil would win. The country was beaten 7-1 by Germany in the tournament’s semi-finals.

That miskick hasn't stopped UBS throwing its research efforts into forecasting this year's tournament, which takes place in Russia.

Brazil and Spain are the second- and third-most likely teams to triumph, UBS said. Fourth place is ceded to England, who created soccer but haven't won a major tournament since 1966.

UBS suggests its report is pertinent to the global economy.

"Russia is one of the biggest emerging markets and the third one in a row [after South Africa and Brazil] to host the World Cup; we're interested in what it means economically speaking," said Tilmann Kolb, an analyst at UBS Wealth Management and one of the report's authors.

Mr. Kolb highlighted that banking is a business with a lot of data and model-building.

“We can make some of that data more exciting for our customers," he said.

Write to David Hodari at david.hodari@wsj.com