UFC Fight Night 231 predictions: Who’s picking Derrick Lewis to upset Jailton Almeida in Sao Paulo?

matt erickson

Fri, 3 Nov 2023, 2:40 pm·4-min read

The UFC is back in Brazil this week with a pair of heavyweight bangers at the top of the bill.

UFC Fight Night 231 takes place Saturday at Ginasio Do Ibirapuera in Sao Paulo. The event streams on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

Get pick results from our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers, as well as additional analysis, below.

Armen Petrosyan vs. Rodolfo Vieira

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – JUNE 17: (R-L) Armen Petrosyan of Russia punches Christian Leroy Duncan of England in a middleweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on June 17, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Records: Petrosyan (8-2 MMA, 3-1 UFC), Vieira (9-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC)
Division: Middleweight
Betting odds: Petrosyan (-110), Vieira (-110)
Junkie pick results: Petrosyan 9, Vieira 2

Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – APRIL 29: (R-L) Caio Borralho of Brazil punches Michal Oleksiejczuk of Poland in a middleweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on April 29, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Records: Borralho (14-1 MMA, 4-0 UFC), Magomedov (25-5-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC)
Division: Middleweight
Betting odds: Borralho (-290), Magomedov (+240)
Junkie pick results: Borralho 10, Magomedov 1

Don'Tale Mayes vs. Rodrigo Nascimento

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 17: (R-L) Rodrigo Nascimento of Brazil punches Tanner Boser of Canada in a heavyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on September 17, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

Records: Mayes (10-5 MMA, 3-3 UFC), Nascimento (10-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC)
Division: Heavyweight
Betting odds: Nascimento (-205), Mayes (+170)
Junkie pick results: Nascimento 11, Mayes 0

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby

Records: Bonfim (15-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC), Dalby (22-4-1 MMA, 6-3-1 UFC)
Division: Welterweight
Betting odds: Bonfim (-625),s. Nicolas Dalby (+455)
Junkie pick results: Bonfim 11, Dalby 0

Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis

May 13, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Jailton Almeida (blue gloves) reacts after defeating Jairzinho Rozenstruik (red gloves) in a heavyweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Records: Almeida (19-2 MMA, 5-0 UFC), Lewis (27-11 MMA, 18-9 UFC)
Division: Heavyweight
Betting odds: Almeida (-485), Lewis (+370)
Junkie pick results: Almeida 10, Lewis 1

Preliminary card picks

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – JULY 01: (L-R) Rinat Fakhretdinov of Russia punches Kevin Lee in a welterweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on July 01, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Although fights on the prelims don’t count toward the standings in the MMA Junkie staff picks, we still pick each fight. Here are some key results:

Of note, though it was set to open up the main card and not part of the prelims, Ismael Bonfim (19-4 MMA, 1-1 UFC) was a 10-1 pick from our staff members for his lightweight fight against Vinc Pichel (14-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC). Bonfim was a heavy favorite in the fight, but the bout was scrapped after he missed weight by 3.5 pounds.

Daniel Marcos (15-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) was a 9-2 pick from our crew for his bantamweight fight against UFC newcomer Victor Hugo (24-4 MMA, 0-0 UFC), but Hugo missed weight by 2.5 pounds and that fight was scrapped, as well.

Our lone unanimous pick on the prelims is Rinat Fakhretdinov (22-2 MMA, 3-0 UFC), more than a 3-1 favorite for his welterweight fight against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (24-7 MMA, 10-3 UFC).

Check out all the main card picks below.

UFC Fight Night 231 main card picks

	Almeida vs. Lewis	G. Bonfim vs. Dalby	Mayes vs. Nascimento	Borralho vs. Magomedov	Petrosyan vs. Vieira
MMA Junkie readers’ consensus picks 179-99	almeida2023 Almeida (67%)	gbonfim2023 G. Bonfim (84%)	nascimento2023 Nascimento (79%)	borralho2023 Borralho (79%)	petrosyan2023 Petrosyan (63%)
Nolan King @mma_kings 180-98	almeida2023 Almeida	gbonfim2023 G. Bonfim	nascimento2023 Nascimento	borralho2023 Borralho	petrosyan2023 Petrosyan
Simon Samano @SJSamano 178-100	almeida2023 Almeida	gbonfim2023 G. Bonfim	nascimento2023 Nascimento	magomedov2023 Magomedov	petrosyan2023 Petrosyan
Ken Hathaway @kenshathaway 177-101 trophy copy 2018, 2022 Champion	lewis2023 Lewis	gbonfim2023 G. Bonfim	nascimento2023 Nascimento	borralho2023 Borralho	vieira2023 Vieira
George Garcia @MMAjunkieGeorge 177-101	almeida2023 Almeida	gbonfim2023 G. Bonfim	nascimento2023 Nascimento	borralho2023 Borralho	vieira2023 Vieira
Mike Bohn @MikeBohn 176-102 trophy copy 2014 Champion	almeida2023 Almeida	gbonfim2023 G. Bonfim	nascimento2023 Nascimento	borralho2023 Borralho	petrosyan2023 Petrosyan
Brian Garcia @thegoze 169-109 trophy copy 2017 Champion	almeida2023 Almeida	gbonfim2023 G. Bonfim	nascimento2023 Nascimento	borralho2023 Borralho	petrosyan2023 Petrosyan
Matthew Wells @MrMWells 168-110	almeida2023 Almeida	gbonfim2023 G. Bonfim	nascimento2023 Nascimento	borralho2023 Borralho	petrosyan2023 Petrosyan
Matt Erickson @MattE 167-111	almeida2023 Almeida	gbonfim2023 G. Bonfim	nascimento2023 Nascimento	borralho2023 Borralho	petrosyan2023 Petrosyan
Farah Hannoun @Farah_Hannoun 166-112	almeida2023 Almeida	gbonfim2023 G. Bonfim	nascimento2023 Nascimento	borralho2023 Borralho	petrosyan2023 Petrosyan
Abbey Subhan @kammakaze 165-113	almeida2023 Almeida	gbonfim2023 G. Bonfim	nascimento2023 Nascimento	borralho2023 Borralho	petrosyan2023 Petrosyan
Danny Segura @dannyseguratv 159-120	almeida2023 Almeida	gbonfim2023 G. Bonfim	nascimento2023 Nascimento	borralho2023 Borralho	petrosyan2023 Petrosyan