Ukrainian counter-offensive against Putin’s army ‘is coming’ and may break Russian defences, western officials say

The Ukrainian counter-offensive “is coming” but Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals are waiting for the “best military moment” to launch it, western officials said on Thursday.

They stressed the Ukrainians had now built up enough forces for a major attack which may “succeed against Russian defensive positions”.

Operations to “shape” the battlefield and potentially force Russia to move troops around along the 1,000km (620 miles) frontline are already underway.

“We assess that the forces that the Ukrainians have reconstituted, ready for the counter-offensive, are now either in or likely to be soon moving to assembly areas which would give them access in reasonably short order to where they actually want to have their axes of attack,” said one western official.

Pressed on the meaning of “reasonably short order, “ he added: “All of the signs are that this is within weeks rather than within months,” though stressing that Ukrainian troops were not yet in “jumping off points”.

Ukrainian units were also said to be “well postured” to protect defensive lines in the north east and other parts of the country.

“The Ukrainian operation and campaign very much their operation, very much for them to decide when the time is right,” said the official.

“What I would say, and would not be controversial, is that the Ukrainians have now, in our assessment, amassed forces that are equipped with western equipment, they have trained personnel ready.

“They have got the range of enablers that potentially would enable them to attack and potentially succeed against Russian defensive positions.”

While these defences were “potentially formidable”, he added, they depended on Russian troops, often with low morale, being committed to fighting to protect them.

He added: “Overall, our assessment would be that, yes, the counter-offensive is coming.

“The Ukrainians certainly have the means and the intent, and we are seeing that.”

He added that the Ukrainian armed forces and political leadership would be looking for the “best military moment” for the counter-offensive amid clashes between the Russian military top brass and Wagner Group leadership.

The weather, though, had been bad over eastern Ukraine recently which can hamper “rapid ground manoeuvre”.

Western officials also now estimated that the Wagner and Russian forces suffered some 60,000 casualties in the year-long battle for Bakhmut, with around a third of them being fatalities as troops were “mown” down in waves of First World War-type attacks.

Putin’s military has recently launched 21 nights of air strikes on Ukraine, mainly using Iranian-supplied “kamikaze” drones, including an attack with long-range missiles on Kyiv on Thursday which killed three people, including a young girl.

The action is believed to be aimed at degrading Ukrainian air defences but Kyiv is said to have adapted tactics to use less expensive air defence systems to shoot down the drones.

Russian attempts to target Ukrainian forces gathering for the counter-offensive are also reported to have had limited success, partly down to poor use of intelligence and inability to strike mobile units.

Drone attacks on Moscow and strikes by anti-regime forces in western Russia across the border from Ukraine, and by Ukranian forces in other parts of the war-torn country, are believed by western officials to be having a “psychological” impact on Putin’s military, and lowering morale.

The “shaping” attacks by Ukrainian forces along the frontline were also aimed at making it harder for the Russian command and control system to prepare to respond to the counter-offensive when it is launched.

Meanwhile, Mr Zelensky pressed his case for Ukraine to be part of the NATO military alliance as he joined European leaders on Thursday in Moldova ahead of the expected counter-offensive against Russia's invasion.

He also called for a coalition of powers to supply Patriot air defence systems and fighter jets to Ukraine to help fend off Russian forces.

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki of Poland, a staunch ally of Ukraine, said at the closing news conference that his country would help Ukraine train F-16 fighter pilots but that Warsaw had too few Patriot batteries to supply any to Kyiv.

Joe Biden has announced another huge US military aid package for Ukraine.

In his nightly address, Mr Zelensky had stressed: “We are working to make the second half of this week meaningful for our relations with partners. Our international team is doing everything to ensure that this week ends with the news Ukraine needs.

“And now I thank the United States of America, President Biden personally, both parties of Congress and every American - everyone who values freedom - for a new defence package for our warriors. Missiles for Patriots, rockets for HIMARS, artillery and other strongly needed weapons. Needed right now!”