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UK's coronavirus R rate remains above one, Sage reveals

REUTERS
REUTERS

The range of the UK's coronavirus R rate remains above one, latest Government data shows.

Data released on Friday by the Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) shows the estimate for R across the UK is between 0.9 and 1.1.

If the R rate reaches one or above, the disease can spread exponentially and infect more and more people.

The growth rate of coronavirus transmission, which reflects how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, has shifted slightly.

Scientists say there have been indications that these values may be increasing, with estimated ranges rising slightly from previous publications.

For the whole of the UK the latest growth rate is between minus 2 per cent and plus 1 per cent per day - a slight change from between minus 3 per cent and plus 1 per cent last week.

The growth rate means the number of new infections is somewhere between shrinking by 2 per cent and growing by 1 per cent every day.

The most likely value is towards the middle of the range, experts say.

In England, the R is between 0.9 and 1.1, and the growth rate is minus 2 per cent to plus 1 per cent.

Recent changes in transmission are not yet fully reflected in the estimates because the data used to calculate R and growth rate reflect the situation from a few weeks ago.

A man wearing a face mask walks by a social distance sign in Liverpool (REUTERS)
A man wearing a face mask walks by a social distance sign in Liverpool (REUTERS)

Epidemiological data, such as hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths, usually take two to three weeks to reflect changes in the spread of disease.

This is because of the time delay between initial infection and the need for hospital care.

Therefore, the figures published on Friday more accurately represent the average situation over the past few weeks rather than the current situation.

But models that use Covid-19 testing data, which have less of a time delay, indicate higher values for R in England, the Sage statement said.

Local lockdowns still remain in areas of the north-west(AFP via Getty Images)
Local lockdowns still remain in areas of the north-west(AFP via Getty Images)

It added: “For this reason, Sage does not have confidence that R is currently below 1.0 in England.

“We would expect to see this change in transmission reflected in the R and growth rate published over the next few weeks as we gain more certainty of what is currently happening.”

The scientists warn that estimates of R and growth rate per day are less reliable and less useful in determining the state of the epidemic when disease incidence is low, or where there is significant variability in the population, for example during local outbreaks.

A coronavirus test is diposited into a box at a drive-in centre (PA)
A coronavirus test is diposited into a box at a drive-in centre (PA)

They say when this is the case, estimates of R and growth rate become insufficiently robust to inform policy decisions.

In the East of England, the growth rate is unchanged at between minus 3 per cent and zero, and the R number is 0.8-1.0.

In London, the growth rate is unchanged at between minus 2 per cent and plus 1 per cent, and the capital’s R rate is also unchanged at 0.9-1.1.

The Midlands has a growth rate of between minus 3 per cent and plus 1 per cent, a change from between minus 4 per cent and zero, and an R number has increased slightly from 0.8-1.0, to 0.8-1.1.

In the North East and Yorkshire, the growth rate is between minus 3 per cent and plus 1 per cent, with an unchanged R number of 0.8-1.0.

The growth rate in the North West is between minus 3 per cent and plus 1 per cent, a slight change from between minus 2 per cent and plus 1 per cent. The R value here is unchanged at 0.9-1.1.

In the South East, the growth rate is between minus 2 per cent and plus 1 per cent, a change from between minus 4% and zero last week.

The R value in the region is up from 0.8-1.0, to 0.9-1.1.

The South West has a growth rate of between minus 2 per cent and plus 2 per cent, compared with between minus 1 per cent and plus 2 per cent last week. Its R value is 0.9-1.1.

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