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A value alternative to Jose Mourinho in the Premier League sack race

  • It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
    1/5

    A value alternative to Jose Mourinho in the Premier League sack race

    It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
  • It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
    2/5

    A value alternative to Jose Mourinho in the Premier League sack race

    It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
  • It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
    3/5

    A value alternative to Jose Mourinho in the Premier League sack race

    It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
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  • It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
    4/5

    A value alternative to Jose Mourinho in the Premier League sack race

    It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
  • It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
    5/5

    A value alternative to Jose Mourinho in the Premier League sack race

    It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 6/4 suggest.
Ross Clarke

It seems inevitable that Jose Mourinho will be sacked at some point this season but there could be value in taking the view that his departure may not be as imminent as odds of 4/7 suggest.

When attempting to focus on a value alternative, it’s worth taking a look at recent Premier League history. Eight of the last 11 managers to earn the dubious honour of being the first to depart their club in a given season were in charge of teams struggling towards the foot of the table.

Of the others, Roberto Di Matteo was sacked by Roman Abramovich just six months after guiding Chelsea to Champions League glory and Brendan Rodgers was fired after a disappointing 18 months in which Liverpool went from just missing out on the title to languishing in tenth place and Alan Curbishley resigned after a fallout with West Ham’s Icelandic owners over transfer policy.

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Curbishley must have spent a decade regretting that decision as he not found gainful employment  since.

It’s worth remembering that this market is settled on the first managerial departure by any means, so a resignation is treated identically to a sacking. So, taking that into account along with poor runs of form, transfer flops and trigger-happy chairmen, this season’s batch of Premier league managers can be split into four distinct groups.

Alan Curbishley has been without a job since leaving West Ham nearly ten years ago - Credit: Glyn Kirk/AFP/Getty Images/AFP
Alan Curbishley has been without a job since leaving West Ham nearly ten years agoCredit: Glyn Kirk/AFP/Getty Images/AFP

The unsackables

Pep Guardiola (250/1)  There should really be an extra zero in this price as there is no way Guardiola will be leaving Manchester City after a record-breaking Premier League success and ambition trained on Champions League glory.

Jurgen Klopp (150/1) Having reached the Champions League final last season and being in with a superb chance of leading Liverpool to their first title since 1990,  it’s impossible to envisiage Klopp leaving his post any time soon.

Unai Emery (100/1) After Arsenal started the season with defeats against Chelsea and Manchester City, a few people were beginning to draw parallels between Emery’s position and that of David Moyes after he succeeded Sir Alex Ferguson at Manchester United. However, Arsenal are now up to fourth in the league and have shown superb attacking flair to win nine straight games in all competitions.

Eddie Howe (66/1) There is something to be said for consistency. Bournemouth sit fifth in the league this season under Howe, who is the Premier League’s longest-serving boss after rejoining the club six years ago. The manager also has a great relationship with chairman Jeff Mostyn, who has described Howe as “a local messiah”. It must be difficult to sack “the anointed one”.

On solid footing

Maurizio Sarri (100/1) There is only one reason why Sarri does not take a deserved place in the unsackables and that’s Roman Abramovich. The Chelsea chairman has a habit of making quick sackings - Luiz Felipe Scolari and Andre Villas Boas were both sacked during their first seasons in charge at Stamford Bridge.

Mauricio Pochettino (66/1) Tottenham chairman Daniel Levy rewarded Pochettino with a bumper five-year contract worth £8.5 million per year in May. The only way the strength of that contract will be tested is if Real Madrid come calling after sacking under-fire manager Julen Lopetegui.

Wolves manager Nuno Espirito Santo celebrates victory against Crystal Palace  - Credit: Sam Bagnall - AMA/Getty Images/Getty Images Europe
Wolves manager Nuno Espirito Santo celebrates victory against Crystal Palace Credit: Sam Bagnall - AMA/Getty Images/Getty Images Europe

Nuno Espirito Santo (66/1) In the past decade only three promoted teams have managed to finish in the top half of the Premier League - Birmingham (ninth in 2009-10), West Ham (tenth in 2012-13) and Newcastle (tenth) last year. Wolves could aim higher than those with European qualification far from unattainable.

Chris Hughton (50/1) Brighton chairman Tony Bloom and Hughton became Freemen of the City after reaching the Premier League and the manager was rewarded with a contract extension until 2021 after he guided the team to safety with seven games to spare last season. Another steady start has cemented his position.

Marco Silva (50/1) Silva has had to contend with a huge injury list and a Premier League inquiry into allegations he was tapped up by his new club as he attempts to make his mark at Everton. However, wins over Fulham and Leicester, allied to the faith and financial backing provided by owner Farhad Moshiri, means he is one to avoid in this market

Sean Dyche (33/1) Delivering European football after a seventh-place league finish last season was always going to mean that Burnley’s small squad would be tested by the number of games at the start of the season. An early Europa League exit now means the team will play mostly once a week and Dyche should steer them to safety.

Must do better

Manuel Pellegrini (33/1)The new West Ham manager has some excellent attacking players at his disposal at West Ham after a summer of investment and could be considered to be underachieving. However, he is reportedly one of the highest-paid managers in the league and is probably in the fortunate position to be too costly to be sacked.

David Wagner (33/1) Despite overseeing a run of just one win in 18 league games since March, Wagner may have less to fear than some of his counterparts. Having exceeded expectations in guiding Huddersfield to safety last season, he has earned the right to take them down this time around.

Watford manager Javi Gracia attempts to get his point across to his players - Credit: Richard Heathcote/Getty Images/Getty Images Europe
Watford manager Javi Gracia attempts to get his point across to his playersCredit: Richard Heathcote/Getty Images/Getty Images Europe

Javi Gracia (40/1) Watford have made a decent start to the season and Gracia is about to be rewarded with a new three-year contract. However, given chairman Gino Pozzo has hired seven managers in six seasons since taking over the club, is any coach at Vicarage Road able to sleep comfortably at night.

Heading towards the exit

Claude Puel (20/1) Always in the frame when this market is discussed, Puel is fighting against board expectations at Leicester after their Premier League success three years ago. His team are wildly inconsistent and are below Wolves and Bournemouth in the table. A heavy defeat at arsenal in the first game after the international break could leave him in trouble.

Rafa Benitez (12/1) If Benitez is to leave Newcastle, the sense is it will be as a result of his resignation rather than being told to go. Benitez is hugely popular with the Toon Army and his sacking could create more problems than it solves for under-fire chairman Mike Ashley.

Roy Hodgson (33/1) Crystal Palace supporters turned on the team at Selhurst Park last week after seeing their team go four games at home without scoring and being outplayed by Wolves. Palace face Everton, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham and Manchester United in their next five Premier League games and a poor run of results could leave Hodgson under pressure

Mark Hughes (16/1) Let’s face it, Hughes is always on the verge of being sacked. He has won just five of his 19 matches since taking charge of Southampton and sold arguably his best player in Dusan Tadic during the summer. A lacklustre display at home to Chelsea last Sunday will not help his cause and his side’s next three games against Bournemouth, Newcastle and Leicester may decide his fate.

Fulham manager Slavisa Jokanovic is under pressure - Credit: Alex Livesey/Getty Images/Getty Images Europe
Fulham manager Slavisa Jokanovic is under pressureCredit: Alex Livesey/Getty Images/Getty Images Europe

Call me a taxi

Slavisa Jokanovic (16/1) Fulham were fourth-favourites to be relegated at the start of the season, but many experts expected better after a net spend of close to £100 million in the summer. A cavalier style of play has led to a terrible defensive record and chairman Shahid Khan is not afraid of wielding the axe, hiring five managers in as many years since assuming control in 2013. Jokanovic looks big value at 16-1.

Neil Warnock (7/1) Cardiff probably have no chance of survival under Warnock – they probably have no chance of survival under anyone - and their next match against Fulham should be labelled El Sackico, with the man on the losing side likely to be looking for a new job.