Whether you’re for or against U.S. President Donald Trump, there’s money to be made in the world of political betting.
Ireland-based betting group Paddy Power has several bets offered on the Trump administration. Bets through the world’s second-largest gambling company are restricted to residents of several countries, including Canada and the United States. But that doesn’t make the odds any less interesting.
In the first few hours after it was reported that Trump asked former FBI Director James Comey to shut down the investigation into Trump’s alleged Russian ties, bettors placed more than £5,000 (about $8,809) on Trump leaving the presidency early, Reuters reports. In total, people have bet $365,000 on whether Trump will make an early exit, with another $649,000 on the year it will be.
Here’s a look at what the odds are on some of the top questions many people are asking about the Trump presidency.
What year will Trump cease to be president?
2020 or later: 11/10
Will Trump complete his first term in office?
Will Trump serve a second term?
Will Trump resign?
If you haven’t already placed a bet on the longevity of the presidency, though, it may be too late. According to Fortune the U.K.-based betting site Ladbrokes, owned by Betfair, bettors see a 60 per cent chance that Trump will not last his first term in office, making for some pretty poor betting odds.
“There’s virtually no one betting on him to not be impeached — in total, literally a single figure amount,” wrote Lee Price, a representative for Betfair.
A bet in November right after the elections would have seen a bettor get $16 for every $1 bet that Trump would be impeached. Now, someone who bets that trump will be impeached is likely to break even instead, getting back about $1 for every $1 they put down.
Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes, says that the betting isn’t a great indicator of whether or not an impeachment will actually take place, however.
“There’s been a lot of talk of removing the sitting president,” Shaddick told Fortune. “[Bettors] are likely overreacting to the latest piece of news.”
Even if it’s no longer worth betting on the longevity of the U.S. presidency, there is still plenty of other aspects to bet on. Paddy Power is also offering bets on some less conventional bets:
Trump to announce that alien lifeforms exist: 20/1
Canada to be the next country that Trump bans: 33/1
Trump to convert to scientology: 25/1
Trump to commission his own face to be added to Mount Rushmore in 2017: 100/1