Warren Gatland's tactical plan in 2024 and why they lost every Test match they played

In the midst of maybe the longest six-day turnaround of Warren Gatland's career, the Wales coach stumbled upon something of a realisation last week

Speaking about the pressure building upon his future, he said: "There obviously seems to be a bit of a divide, doesn't there? You know, ‘go or stay’."

Make no mistakes, as Gatland's squad and coaches were filing out of the Vale Resort on Sunday morning after another disappointing campaign, upstairs was an indication of the profile of that latter camp.

From the floor of the Welsh Rugby Union's Annual General Meeting, the support for Gatland from the majority of the member clubs in the room was clear to see. One question about 'Mr Gatland' shouldering too much of the blame was met with applause. His bosses, WRU CEO Abi Tierney and chair Richard Collier-Keywood, were equally effusive on his credentials.

With the campaign over, Gatland's attention will turn to reflecting on the past month or so, if for nothing else but to ensure he gets through the WRU's review process with his job.

The tea leaves are pointing towards Gatland staying, after a week when he started it looking like a broken man. But, a winless 2024 means there's little room for error moving forward.

The end of the Test year in Wales brought with it unwanted history. Through no fault of the 56 players to pull on the jersey at various points, this has been a 12 months with few redeeming qualities.

11 Tests played, 11 defeats - with the margin of defeat being an average of 15 points. There have been close games, but, on the other end of the scale, there have been hammerings and humiliations.

In six of those matches - Scotland, Ireland, Italy, Australia in Melbourne and Cardiff, and South Africa - Wales have conceded at least 17 points before troubling the scorers themselves. Unsurprisingly, Gatland's side have scored the fewest points out of the world's top 12 sides in the first-half this year. They've also conceded more points in the final quarter (121) than any other Tier One side in 2024.

Those are as damning statistics as any. With the dust settling on a dismal 2024, what can we learn from a painful year?

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Breaking down the narrative

Let's start with the squad composition, given barely a week has gone by without the loss of experience felt by Wales in the last year.

In Wayne Pivac's final year in charge in 2022, the average number of caps of the 53 players used that year was around 38. Then, in Gatland's first year back, it dropped slightly to an average of 35 across the 59 players who pulled on the jersey.

Of course, when you factor in the retirements of Alun Wyn Jones, Ken Owens, Justin Tipuric, Dan Biggar and Leigh Halfpenny among others - as well as the departure of Louis Rees-Zammit, the average number of caps of players available beyond 2023 was actually around 28.

Now, heading into 2025, it's at around 20 caps per player. So yes, there has been an undeniable drop-off in experience.

Of the 54 players used this year who are still available for selection, 24 have less than 10 caps. Just seven players have more than 50 caps. That could become eight with Taulupe Faletau once he's back fit, who would be the only player with over 100 caps available to Gatland - some 20 months since the Wales coach fielded four centurions in Paris.

The defeat to South Africa marked the first time in his 149 Tests that Gatland had picked a matchday 23 with no player boasting over 50 caps. In fact, he's always had at least one player with more than 60 caps in every matchday squad - until this autumn.

That's had an effect. Gatland is used to drip-feeding youth into teams full of experience. This is something new, but there's perhaps a sense that opportunities were missed at times in order to stem the negativity - certainly at the start of the year, while the relative success of the World Cup was fresh in the memory, but even this autumn with selection decisions that went awry.

For all the loss of experience, Wales had at least three players with 50 caps or more in each of their Six Nations matchday squads. At most, they had six players against Italy in the final game.

Yet did they utilise that experience enough, with Wales' confidence knocked week on week with a confused way of wanting to play. The day before Wales' first Test of the year against Scotland, one of the coaches told me that they were looking to play an exciting brand of attacking rugby.

That hasn't exactly materialised, as the losses have piled up.

An identity crisis

From that initial attacking intent, that didn't start in earnest until Scotland were 27-0 at the Principality Stadium, Wales have looked bereft of a clear identity.

The fundamentals of a Gatland side are there in some ways. In all but three of their Test matches this year, they have made more tackles than their opposition - often, particularly in the latter half of the year, significantly more.

Of course, while there's a willingness to make those tackles, Gatland will argue - having lost a lot of personnel from the World Cup, when the national team have the longest time with players - the conditioning levels simply aren't good enough.

There's a desire to be hard to beat, as Gatland teams have been in the past, but clearly that's not really worked out - perhaps because Wales, in some ways, have wanted to have their cake and eat it too.

In certain matches, Wales have done decent jobs of drawing up little nuances to target certain weaknesses. Against France in the Six Nations, they had some success with causing France problems by holding onto the ball for five or more phases.

Against a possession-heavy team like Ireland in Dublin, with their multi-faceted attack, they limited the damage with a relatively passive defence.

But none of that has been enough - with their own identity beyond one-off plans harder to discern. And, certainly in more winnable games than those three, Wales have perhaps been caught between different schools of thought.

That desire to be an attacking team resulted in Wales averaging the second highest average passes per match with 168, while they were also second with their pass to kick ratio - kicking once every 6.2 passes.

Only Ireland passed more per kick. Wales were top for percentage of passes over 10 metres, with 15.8 per cent being over that distance - all pointing to an ambitious gameplan. The fact they didn't even attempt a kick at goal in the opening three matches spoke of an almost carefree mindset - one that soon dissipated on the way to a first wooden spoon in over two decades.

With that, Gatland offered up his resignation post-match - hardly boosting the confidence around what he was building. Heading into the summer, there was a greater emphasis on taking positive steps forward with a clearer identity.

Wales weren't indulging in the basketball style of rugby they attempted in the Six Nations, but there was still a sense they wanted the best of both worlds. While in Australia, their coaches spoke of wanting to be a territory-based team, but also play to space.

Most of their entry points came from their kicking game off nine, as well as their strong maul, but there was still a desire to keep ball - sometimes around midfield when there was little on.

That dichotomy has carried on into the autumn. Selection, in some ways, has boosted their prospects - with Ben Thomas at 12 more suited to their desire to play to space than Mason Grady. But it felt a little bit like going back to square one again.

Another campaign, another slight difference in direction. Again, with the attacking ball they did have, Wales didn't really show enough on either front.

Against Fiji, the early promising attacking shape fizzled out with Grady's injury, while they failed to cause the Fijian back-three problems by opting against kicking on the edge more often.

Then, against Australia, they had decent success with the aerial game, largely in part to Tom Rogers, but their phase play still had issues.

Intriguingly, this autumn has seen Wales kick further per kick than each of their opponents in all three matches - seemingly moving away from kicking to compete. In fact, only France kicked further per kick this November.

On the other side of the ball, a slightly soft underbelly was exposed against Fiji and Australia. Caleb Muntz' try came from cutting back against the grain and exposing Welsh forwards in the middle of the pitch, while Australia nearly scored from something similar when the Welsh pack failed to fold around the corner.

Against South Africa, Wales stood up well with double tackles, as you'd expect, but struggled when the Springboks showed any real signs of variation.

A lack of confidence, detail and the big gainline problem

Looking at this autumn more closely, the early dominance against Fiji - when the attacking shape looked promising and Wales were playing with speed and intent - seems a long time ago.

As the autumn went on, it was clear that confidence in what Wales were trying to do was waning. For all the talk of effort - and that was obvious to see - you'd be harder pressed to say there's a tangible belief in what the coaches want to do.

Forwards are carrying so far behind the gainline on phase play - a sure sign of a lack of confidence. For all the talk of Wales' relative lack of ball carriers compared to other nations, it ultimately doesn't matter if your best carriers are starting so far back.

And, for all the talk of conditioning, it's easier to stave off the nagging pangs of fatigue when you're clearing out rucks in front of you, rather than having to trudge backwards phase after phase. Just look at where Wales end up kicking away possession from where they started it...

It was a similar story against Fiji, with Wales slipping into the comfort zone of playing so far off the gainline as the match reached its climax.

Heading into the South Africa match - a Test which will have hardly moved the dial in a positive way given they only gained 84 metres - Wales were getting over the gainline five per cent less than the international rugby average. In fact, they were also going backwards five per cent more than the average Test side.

In their own half, they went backwards seven per cent more than the average - again pointing to the habit of overplaying and then being unable to kick on their own terms.

One former Wales international, who has played under Gatland with Wales, recognises this whole horrible cycle - having played in similar. They note that you end up playing the pictures you think the coaches want you to see, rather than what you actually see.

They add that there appears to be a lack of accountability, with everything seeming outcome-based. The players, they believe, look lost on direction and decision-making, with their intentions appearing clouded.

There have been reports of the young squad asking for more detail from the coaching ticket this autumn, while there's been the odd murmur about frustrations rising over the tactical direction.

Ironically, at the start of the year, when Wales reverted to a kick-heavy conservative gameplan from the off against Scotland, Gatland spoke about simplifying the message to his players.

Ultimately, as a former international suggested this week, detail isn't so important when you've got power and pace. And that, particularly given how Wales seemingly want to play with a foot in each camp with neither an abundance of power or pace, is an issue.

Where do Wales go next?

There's a nucleus of a side there which is almost certainly better than these results and performances suggest. The backline, with a bit more experience and Test knowledge, has a decent mix of ball-players and pace, if all a little on the small side.

You sense, on that front, there could be an overreliance on the likes of Grady and Max Llewellyn to counter-balance that. But when it worked, as it did on occasion against Fiji, there's certainly potential to be explored.

The pack isn't blessed with size either, but has a maul that has been described by some opposition coaches as one of the best in the world.

There's also, in Jac Morgan, Dewi Lake, Aaron Wainwright and James Botham, some punchy carriers who can provide real impetus. Although, what good are carriers like that if they're not given a chance to get near the gainline...

Normally, a Gatland side would find a way of accentuating all of those strengths as flashpoints within the parameters of a clearly defined plan.

Think Shane Williams' freedom to roam in the early years of Gatland's first reign, the obvious backline power of that middle period of that stint or, maybe most suitably to this current crop, the slightly more precise attacking game of his last tilt at the World Cup that negated the loss of some of that brawn.

We've seen elements of that in Gatland's second time around, relying on strike moves and smart carrying in the tight - springing backs around the fringes - to make up for Wales' continual lack of pure size in 2023. But that's been missing this year, with Wales yet to figure out how they make this team greater than the sum of their parts.

Setting out in realistic terms how Wales will manage that in 2025 will likely determine how Gatland's review goes in the coming days.