Week 14 NFL DFS Strategy: Picks, advice, values for DraftKings, FanDuel

Mike Lovetro from RotoQL breaks down his top Week 14 NFL DFS picks and provides strategy advice for finding the best sleepers and values in DraftKings and FanDuel contests.

Daily fantasy football has been a wild ride this year, but I can’t stress enough how much I appreciate you all riding along with RotoQL each week as I try to find the best value picks for your lineups. We’ve had a lot of wins, and a few losses, but overall, helping you all achieve the NFL DFS results you want to see has been extremely rewarding. Thank you for your continued support. Now, let's take down some Week 14 DraftKings and FanDuel contests!

With only a few weeks left, it’s time to go for it all! So, while these value articles are often about finding the players we believe will pay of their price tag, we’re making a slight shift as we try to win a tournament, looking for value plays with opportunities to not just meet their value but smash their ceilings, elevating you to the top of the leader board.

Before we break down this week's picks, we always point out that this article should be just one component of your daily fantasy research. The top DFS players get knowledge from multiple sources before locking in their lineups. I also suggest checking out RotoQL's NFL lineup optimizer, which, as always, played a big role in the picks below. RotoQL’s top-of-the-line fantasy football packages are absolutely packed with statistics and user-friendly DFS tools. Good luck finding anything better.

WEEK 14 DFS:
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If you're searching for more DFS advice -- NBA, NFL, MLB, whatever you need -- follow me on Twitter (@MLoveDFS).

WEEK 14 RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

NFL DFS Picks Week 14: Quarterback values

DeShone Kizer, Browns vs. Packers (DraftKings: $4,900; FanDuel: $6,400)

The season is winding down, and if you aren’t trying to take down a tournament and land yourself a big check, you’re doing it wrong. So, let’s take some risks and put it all on Kizer this week! Kidding. But look how cheap Kizer is for this matchup with a Green Bay defense ranked 21st in team DVOA. People aren’t talking about him, but outside of a matchup with the Jaguars, which seems to be a common phrase when analyzing fantasy football, Kizer has been playing well since regaining the starting job, and it’s not like these were all cupcake matchups. Kizer has still produced decent fantasy points against good pass defenses like the Chargers, Bengals, and Vikings. The Packers are a massive matchup upgrade, and one that almost any quarterback in the league could take advantage of. At this price, it’s not going to take much for Kizer to pay off, especially with him picking up extra points on the ground.

People overlook the fact that Kizer quietly has five rushing touchdowns on the season, and he has no problem lowering his shoulder and taking a hit to get the Browns a score. If he happens to find himself in the end zone, you’re almost guaranteed that Kizer returns value. Even if he doesn’t get in with his legs, I still think Kizer gets it done through the air. Don’t overlook how important it is for Kizer to get Josh Gordon back on top of just getting Corey Coleman back from injury. All of a sudden this offense has some weapons, and they are way underpriced. I’m just saying, it all lines up, and it’s not the craziest place to look for discounts.

Other Options: Tom Savage, Blaine Gabbert

WEEK 14 RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

Daily Fantasy Football Week 14 Advice: Running back values

Lamar Miller, Texans vs. 49ers (DraftKings: $5,800; FanDuel: $6,600)

Using the RotoQL quick pick tools, you will see that Miller has one of the highest value ratings on the slate in a matchup with the 49ers on Sunday. This shouldn’t surprise you. Since the start of last season, the 49ers have been the premier spot to attack for running back fantasy production, consistently allowing top performances to RBs. I understand that Miller’s touches have never been consistent and sharing time in the backfield will push some people away from him, but even with Miller seeing less snaps, he’s still getting nearly 20 touches a game. Honestly, that could be enough to do significant damage in this matchup.

Add in the three or four receptions he gets nearly every game, and that is plenty of opportunity to pay off his price tag. I don’t think you need to get cute here, as there’s not a ton of value-priced backs that can be relied upon. I’m going to trust a process that has worked out for the better more often than not and continue to play a fairly priced back against the 49ers defense.

Other Options: Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, Alfred Morris, Jerick McKinnon

MORE: Build your perfect lineup with RotoQL

Week 14 Daily Fantasy Football Picks, Values: Wide receiver

Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals vs. Titans (DraftKings: $6,500 FanDuel: $7,600)

Despite another monster performance, Fitzgerald is sitting at a very fair price for a matchup against a struggling Titans secondary. Since Blaine Gabbert has taken over, Fitzgerald has seen the offense move through him, averaging an elite 10.5 targets per game. Outside of the difficult Jaguars matchup, Fitz has had at least nine receptions and 90 yard with each game with Gabbert as his QB. This isn’t surprising, as Gabbert has consistently favored the middle of the field throughout his career, and when you have a legendary wide receiver, who usually has the best matchup on the field in the slot, utilizing your strengths here is a no-brainer. I expect Fitzgerald to continue to see this type of usage, and because of this consistency, he can be used in all formats Sunday.

Josh Gordon, Browns vs. Packers (DraftKings: $5,500; FanDuel: $6,700)

Gordon can still play football. Believe that. I’ll admit, I was hesitant to roster Gordon in his first game back, but after seeing the Browns force him the ball with a team high 11 targets, it’s hard not to think we’re getting a steal at this price tag. But not only do the Browns believe Gordon is as talented as ever, apparently elite lockdown corner Casey Hayword also does, too. Hayward said earlier this week that Gordon was his toughest matchup all year. Hayward has faced the likes of Odell Beckham Jr., Dez Bryant, Brandin Cooks, Tyreek Hill, and more this season, so I’m while I don’t want to read into it too much, it is somewhat reassuring to hear that from a neutral party who has nothing to gain from giving his honest opinion. If Gordon was able to have a decent game against the Chargers, I think he can shred a Green Bay secondary we’ve attacked all season long. Gordon is much more talented than any player Green Bay employs in their secondary, so I’m going to have my fair share of exposure, as I can see this being Gordon’s big comeback statement game.

Other Options: Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Alshon Jeffery, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs

WEEK 14 DFS:
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Week 14 NFL DFS Picks: Tight end values

Hunter Henry, Chargers vs. Redskins (DraftKings: $4,600; FanDuel: $5,600)

I’m sorry for writing him up twice in a row, but it’s very odd to me that Henry’s price went down after recording a career high in receptions last week. I said it last week, but as talented as Henry is, it’s about time the Chargers started finding ways to get him involved in the offense. After two straight weeks of solid fantasy performances, it looks like that’s what is taking place in LA. I’m not sure what part of the pricing algorithm malfunctioned for his price to go down, but I think when it comes to value tight ends, Henry is once again in too good of a spot where it makes all the sense for us to exploit the price. Sure, Henry did exit his last game with after a scary hit to the knee, but with little talk of the injury at the time of this writing, I’m taking the no-news-is-good-news approach and assuming Henry will find his way onto the field on Sunday.

Washington has been awful at defending the tight end and offers one of the best matchups you can ask for. Henry is the one guy at this price point who we could reasonably see break through to the elite tight end tier. This might be his turning point, so I’m going to continue to roster him for cheap while I can.

Other Options: Vernon Davis, Cameron Brate

MORE: Last week's perfect DraftKings lineup

Week 14 NFL DFS Advice: Defense values

New York Jets @ Broncos (DraftKings: $3,300; FanDuel: $4,500)

I’m sorry. I really am. In my defense, I warned you there were going to be some risks with playing the Jets, and going that route was more about betting against the struggling Chiefs than believing in the Jets. Well, here we are again -- another matchup where New York’s fantasy projection feels more about their opponent than about their own successes on the field. But this is different. This is a Broncos offense that can’t decide between three quarterbacks because all of them have turnover problems, limited upside, and questionable futures in the league. The best of the three, Trevor Siemian, just threw three picks against one of the worst defenses in the entire league.

Now, I’m not saying he’s a lock to do it a second week in a row, but at this point I think the odds are more likely that Siemian continues to struggle than to find himself suddenly turning things around. I want to pick on the Broncos, so I’m going to try and get cute with the Jets one more time.

Other Options: Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings

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