What We Learned: Inside the NHL’s coach-hiring trend

(Hello, this is a feature that will run through the entire season and aims to recap the weekend’s events and boils those events down to one admittedly superficial fact or stupid opinion about each team. Feel free to complain about it.)

One of the big recent trends in hockey over the past few years has been teams in need of coaches going outside the “old boys network” of the 40 or so guys who could reliably get coaching jobs in the NHL.

It used to be that if your team fired a coach, the odds were that it would then hire a guy with plenty of NHL experience, but who had been fired from another team in the somewhat recent past. On some level, this makes perfect sense. You typically only get an NHL job because you are one of the 30 best hockey coaches in the world at any given time. Often, you’d flame out not because you weren’t doing a good job coaching, but because the talent you had to coach in the first place wasn’t conducive to winning.

That’s the thing about NHL hockey: You can be the best coach on the planet, but if you don’t have talented players throughout your roster, you’re not getting very far, if you get anywhere at all.

Case in point was Mike Babcock this past season. He took a Leafs team that was deeply untalented once you got past a small handful of useful players, and he made them competitive in most games because he’s probably the best systems coach in hockey. Lots of one-goal losses, or one-goal-with-an-empty-net for a team that, on paper, was pretty uninspiring.

The fact that the Toronto Maple Leafs went from being a roughly 46 percent adjusted-possession team to north of 50 percent without a big talent injection tells you plenty about Babcock’s quality. The fact that despite the big positive change, the Leafs only went from 68 points under Randy Carlyle and Peter Horachek to 69 under Babcock tells you plenty about the talent level.

So it’s interesting that NHL teams are becoming more into hiring coaches from lower leagues. And it might also be very, very wise. That’s because having the best players is the biggest differentiator between good and bad teams in the NHL, and probably always will be. The fact is, though, that a quality “Xs and Os” bench boss can really get you ahead if you’re a middling talent-level team. That takes you from “decent” to “good,” or from “good” to “great” pretty easily.

But what’s more coaching talent often the biggest reason for team success the farther you get away from the most talented player pools. Systems matter a lot more in college or junior than the ECHL, in the ECHL more than the AHL, and in the AHL more than the NHL. It’s why a coach like Rand Pecknold or Norm Bazin can regularly make the NCAA tournament despite the fact that they’re not getting the boatloads of NHL-drafted players bigger-name schools do. Their coaching acumen and systems are what level the playing field for their older, generally less talented players.

This obviously comes up this week because the Colorado Avalanche hired Jared Bednar late in the week — to go along with “late in the summer” — with the long-time minor-league coach having just won a Calder Cup with Lake Erie. It was his second minor-league title in six seasons as a head coach at lower levels, as he also won a Kelly Cup in the ECHL with South Carolina in 2009.

Certainly, Bednar said all the right things about his approach to the game in his introductory presser, but it’s easy enough to say the right things, and a lot harder to actually win at the NHL level unless you’re an actual good coach. But if his won-lost record in the minors is any indication (89-45-9 in the ECHL, 162-113-33 in the AHL) he very much seems to be.

Again, success at that level is as much coach-dependent as talent-dependent, and the stats suggest that he’s certainly above-average at the very least.

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His teams have finished in the top-9 in their leagues in shots-for percentage across all situations three out of six times, and once more in the top half of the league. In terms of goals-for percentage, they’ve spent four seasons in the top-10 and only one outside the top half. His teams generally seem to get good goaltending (which seems to be very systems-dependent the farther you get from the NHL), because only once have they even finished outside the top-eight in their respective leagues.

Bednar’s numbers generally speak for themselves here.

Good coaches’ teams can generally uphold high PDOs in lower levels of hockey, and that generally seems to be what Bednar’s teams did until recently. However, it’s also worth noting that this is something that doesn’t matter as much in the NHL, where actual on-ice talent is the big divider, and coaching has a more diminished impact.

But the good news for the Avs is that they do actually have quite a bit of talent, though not necessarily on the blue line (the depth is just not very good there). But if the general rule of thumb is that Bednar’s teams are going to get good goaltending, they can probably count on that from Semyon Varlamov with little difficulty. And it might also be worth noting — though it probably isn’t — that the Avs have the highest shooting percentage in the league over the last three seasons. Point being, Bednar is somewhat unlikely to suffer a PDO collapse that makes him look worse than he is, just as his predecessor enjoyed an inflated PDO.

Really all you want to do is ensure that the process is sound. Patrick Roy’s very much was not, but the results briefly upheld whatever authority he might have wanted to yield. The fact that over six seasons with four different teams, Bednar ended up coming out ahead on all-situations shots on goal (almost 51 percent, which is respectable) and goals-for (only one time in six seasons were his teams actually outscored, due to some very bad goaltending), probably portends good things.

Also worth noting here is that Bednar’s two lost seasons with Peoria in his first AHL head coaching stint came when he took over a team that had just 26 wins the year before. He won 42 and 31. When he left, they dropped down to 23. That, to me, might indicate the kind of impact he could have at the AHL level.

At the NHL level that impact is likely to be a bit diminished. But it will still be there, and if this Colorado team can get back anywhere close to 50 percent possession at 5-on-5, then they could threaten for a playoff spot because of the talent level some of their players bring to the table (especially their goaltender). That is, of course, a tall order. Given Bednar’s minor-league numbers are pretty solid if not overwhelming, even if they are less descriptive than what we have at the NHL level, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see the Avs actually compete for a playoff spot.

Lake Erie was a very good team last year, headed up by a good coach who seems to understand how the game works on a fundamental level. The Avs have the roster to be a good-ish team in the NHL, now that they have that help behind the bench. I wouldn’t expect much more than that, but this is a solid step in the right direction.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: No surprise here, but the Ducks signed Max Jones over the weekend even though he’s probably headed back to the OHL.

Arizona Coyotes: Boy am I already sick of the “The Coyotes might move to a different part of the greater Phoenix area” conversation that will seemingly never end. They already have one tax-payer funded arena they can’t come close to filling. What good does another one do anybody, especially if it’s not downtown?

Boston Bruins: First nine words of the headline: “Hey, not bad!” Last four words of the headline: “Oh, never mind.”

Buffalo Sabres: The Sabres still haven’t re-signed Rasmus Ristolainen, and it’s almost September. Maybe the issue is that Tim Murray understands what few others do: Ristolainen is not a No. 1 defenseman.

Calgary Flames: The Flames goaltending situation is so much better today than it was a year ago that this is almost not even worth talking about. Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson are significantly better than anyone they’ve had in years. Probably since Miikka Kiprusoff was a near-annual Vezina candidate.

Carolina Hurricanes: Speaking of goalies, Eddie Lack really ought to be The Guy in Raleigh this year.

Chicago: Ah hmm, seems like there isn’t as much outrage over Toews not being Canada’s captain as I expected. Guess it’s cuz Crosby won that Cup again, hey?

Colorado Avalanche: Whenever you can compare Jared Bednar to the pope who became the first one to resign in 600 years, you gotta do it. Especially because you wanted the team to hire Bob Hartley instead.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Sergei Bobrovsky is basically chronically injured, so he have reined that in with a new workout regimen this summer.

Dallas Stars: We’re still talking about this, huh? That’s fair. That’s fine.

Detroit Red Wings: Ooooo, I really don’t know about this call.

Edmonton Oilers: Matt Benning was a perfectly above-average college defenseman. Thus ends my opinion of Matt Benning.

Florida Panthers: Did you see this column coming? Sure you did.

Las Vegas No-Names: “Desert Knights” is really not a good name.

Los Angeles Kings: An outdoor AHL game in Southern California. Should go great.

Minnesota Wild: Too late, bud.

Montreal Canadiens: Basically the only reason the Canadiens will be better this season is that Carey Price is probably a lot better than sub-replacement-level.

Nashville Predators: If only one song by Nashville-based band Diarrhea Planet can be the Predators’ goal song, it ought to be “Heat Wave,” and not the also-excellent “Ain’t a Sin to Win.” This is entry-level Diarrhea Planet stuff, folks. I can’t be held accountable for other people’s bad opinions on this subject.

New Jersey Devils: Hey is Damon Severson actually better than Adam Larsson? We’re about to find out.

New York Islanders: The Islanders hired Lou Lamoriello’s son Chris as their director of player personnel. It’s a new “err, ah” in Brooklyn. That’s a good joke. Thanks everyone.

New York Rangers: If the Rangers don’t make a big trade before the season starts, that… won’t be a surprise.

Ottawa Senators: Do you think Derick Brassard will have the best plus-minus on the Sens this year? Cuz I don’t think that will happen if he gets top-line minutes.

Philadelphia Flyers: There is no Flyers goaltending battle. Or at least, there shouldn’t be. Horrible playoff goal or not.

Pittsburgh Penguins: The Penguins are sending a lot of older guys to a rookie tournament. Why not, I guess?

San Jose Sharks: “Big.”

St. Louis Blues: That first-ever Blues jersey ain’t bad at all.

Tampa Bay Lightning: It is very sad that this is hockey news.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Seems like “Auston Matthews as rookie of the year” is quite likely to happen, doesn’t it? He just got done dominating a men’s league at 18.

Vancouver Canucks: Not to put too much pressure on two young players on a rotten team, but…

Washington Capitals: Congr8ts. Does that work? No, huh?

Winnipeg Jets: Quinton Howden “can’t believe he’s playing for the team he once watched.” He’s not, though. That team is in Arizona now. Unless Howden was a big Thrashers fan growing up or whatever.

Gold Star Award

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins owns a race horse. Adorable. Bless them both.

Minus of the Weekend

And speaking of race horses, Eddie Olczyk is the keynote speaker at a race horse owners’ conference. Because of course he is.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Year

User “Titsuple” has a bright idea.

Puljujärvi for Trouba 1 for 1.

Signoff

That’s your solution to everything: to live under the sea. It’s not gonna happen.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here. (All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)