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Why have England failed to score from open play in 450 minutes?

Why have England failed to score from open play in 450 minutes? - GETTY IMAGES
Why have England failed to score from open play in 450 minutes? - GETTY IMAGES

World Cup semi-finalists in 2018, European Championship runners-up last year, England were surfing a wave of optimism, but the wheels have come off spectacularly and they now look anything but potential winners in Qatar.

Friday's 1-0 defeat in Italy relegated them from the Nations League top tier after a campaign in which they lost twice to Hungary – including 4-0 at Wembley – and once to Italy along with two scrambled draws.

Their only goal in five games was a late Harry Kane penalty against Germany and they will hardly be brimming with confidence for the return match at home on Monday.

So why have England found goals so hard to come by?

The lack of a playmaker

Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham are both fine midfielders, who do excellent jobs for their clubs, but neither seems able to provide the penetrating pass that England have been failing to find for so long.

Their pass maps from Friday night (below) highlight the problem: Rice rarely lost possession against Italy, but almost all his balls were played backwards or sideways.

Bellingham, a young man still finding his way in the international game, was more progressive and was equally tidy with the ball but he was still not delivering passes into the Italy third where England's three-pronged attack could hurt their hosts.

Playing too deep

One of England's biggest problems against Italy – and which has been a recurring theme against the better teams they have faced in the Southgate era – was how deep they were playing.

Their average position map below highlights the problem. Starved of service from midfield, England's front three of Raheem Sterling (10), Harry Kane (9) and Phil Foden (11) were continually forced to drop back towards the halfway line in search of the ball, while the wing-backs Reece James (3) and Bukayo Saka (7) struggled to get forward.

"That was the biggest frustration - how deep England were," Andros Townsend, the former England winger, told the BBC. "As a collective, they need to be higher up the pitch to start with so that when you regain possession, you're already in the midfield third or the final third. Most of the time against Italy, when England regained possession, they were in their own half and the front players were isolated. That means you have to have a Roy of the Rovers manoeuvre to even get out of our own half."

For Matthew Upson, the former England centre-half, the problem lay further back.

"Part of the problem is playing with centre-backs like Eric Dier and Harry Maguire who aren't that comfortable with getting higher up the pitch," he said. "If they're not doing that, the space is so much bigger and you can't condense it."

Players out of position

Saka's struggles as a left wing-back were painfully obvious against Italy. Despite Arsenal's fine start to the season, Saka has not been at his best – perhaps the legacy of an exhausting workload from last year which saw him play almost 3,000 minutes of Premier League football, the fourth most of any forward in the division.

In that context, it was arguably unfair to expect him to shine in a position that is so unfamiliar, and sure enough he struggled to make an impact in his 72 minutes on the field – touching the ball just 28 times, and barely at all in the Italian final third.

A possible solution

So, what to do about it? England's lack of playmaking options has been a running sore for Southgate, who again bemoaned the fact that not enough English players are playing consistently at the highest level to warrant a place in his squad.

But one player who is shining for his club side at the moment is James Maddison, with his contributions perhaps made even more notable by the fact they have come in a struggling side, at Leicester.

Only one Premier League midfielder has scored more goals this season than Maddison with his three, and his performance for Leicester in their defeat at Tottenham last week, as seen below, highlighted the forward thrust he could bring to England if selected. He provided four key passes (balls that lead to chances) and seven shots, three of which were on target, including one goal.

Southgate has shied away from selecting Maddison recently, mainly due to concerns over his off-field behaviour, but if he maintains his form, he may have no choice but to reconsider.

So how can England break their goal drought?

Back three to four

It may leave England more open, but shifting to a back four would allow Gareth Southgate to have an extra attacking option on the pitch. This would rely on his two centre-backs being pacy enough to deal with strikers, which would see them put under pressure during the latter stages of the World Cup. In Southgate’s favour for this is an excellent set of full-backs who have speed to cover after transitions and can play as extra centre-backs. The Euro semi-final win over Denmark was a good example, with players pushed further up the pitch.

Player positions

After a period of bad results, Southgate could do worse than going back to basics and starting players in the positions they are most accustomed to. Bukayo Saka playing at left wing-back did not work against Italy, leaving gaps behind him when he pushed forward. Kieran Trippier could be the exception to this, as he has shown he is comfortable on either flank. Trent Alexander-Arnold in midfield was another experiment which did not come off recently.

Jordan Pickford's passing

England’s No1’s presence is missed when he is not there, and far beyond him loudly berating his defenders when not happy about something. It is his range of passing which makes him such an important part of the backline. England can go from defence to attack with the swing of his boot. He is also accurate with his mid-range passing of around 40 yards. It eases pressure when he is in the team. He seems to have calmed over the last 18 months after a period where he looked impetuous.

Jack Grealish's X-factor

The Manchester City forward will not be playing against Germany as he picked up a booking and suspension against Italy, but he was one of the bright sparks in Milan when England were chasing the game. He makes an impact off the bench and should be trusted from the start more often as he provides such a different way of attacking. He draws fouls from opponents and is fearless in wanting the ball even when he is being targeted.

Set-piece threat

It was not so long ago that free-kicks and corners were one of the main threats for Southgate’s team. At the last World Cup they managed to confuse opponents with players standing in a line, called the 'Love Train', as they waited for the delivery. As the ball floated in they scattered and were difficult to mark. In 2022 they managed just one goal from set-pieces after 11 during the year they reached the semi-finals of the World Cup.