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Why the IPL's postponement could hinder England's Ashes chances

Ollie Robinson of Sussex in action during day 2 of the LV= Insurance County Championship match between Sussex and Yorkshire at The 1st Central County Ground on April 23, 2021 in Hove, England. Sporting stadiums around the UK remain under strict restrictions due to the Coronavirus Pandemic as Government social distancing laws prohibit fans inside venues resulting in games being played behind closed door - Mike Hewitt/Getty Images

The inevitable suspension of the Indian Premier League means that no longer will England begin their Test match summer by selecting a weakened side, with their stars detained in India. That increases Joe Root’s prospects of beginning the summer with a Test victory against New Zealand. And yet, for England’s longer-term development, picking a full-strength XI at Lord’s might not be entirely desirable.

However unsatisfactory the prospect of beginning a Test summer with a coterie of star players unavailable thanks to the IPL, there were benefits to this prospect. While New Zealand are a fine side, as their qualification for the World Test Championship final attests, the two-match series was hastily arranged to help England cover the revenue shortfall caused by Covid-19. As the series is not part of the World Test Championship, the Tests are effectively friendlies.

If England are to survive the demands of the months ahead – five-match series at home to India and in Australia sandwiching the T20 World Cup – they will need to call upon all the depth in their squad. And so, however inconvenient, the IPL would have allowed England to stress-test their fringe players in Test cricket, giving an opportunity to Ben Foakes and debuts to James Bracey and Ollie Robinson.

With the IPL returnees – including Jos Buttler and Chris Woakes – now available, these slots could be closed. Yet that would be a shame, depriving England of a chance to learn about those vying for a spot in the first XI before the challenges that await later in 2021.

Research done by England has found that batsmen who make their Test debuts in an away Ashes series, or immediately before, tend to struggle down under. It illustrates the importance of planning ahead, reducing the chances of being forced to hand out a Test debut with the Ashes on the line. So giving a debut to Bracey – who has grown in stature since becoming a member of the England squad – would be to England’s advantage if a spot opened up during the engagements against India and Australia. His versatility makes him an unusual cricketer: both a candidate to be Jos Buttler’s debut – and eventual successor – behind the stumps, and a contender to bat in the top three for England.

James Bracey of Gloucestershire bats during day four of the LV= County Championship match between Gloucestershire and Surrey at Bristol County Ground on April 11, 2021 in Bristol, England. Sporting stadiums around the UK remain under strict restrictions due to the Coronavirus Pandemic as Government social distancing laws prohibit fans inside venues resulting in games being played behind closed door - Dan Mullan/Getty Images

Batting at three, while keeping wicket for Gloucestershire, makes Bracey an option in either role. But unless England decided to dispense with Foakes, a top three berth appears to be Bracey’s most likely route to a Test berth.

Robinson is another unusual cricketer: an opening bowler who also bowls useful auxiliary off spin. But for England’s Ashes purposes, his role is obvious: to reprise the role he performed taking seven wickets in the England Lions’s victory over Australia A at the MCG last year, when he pounded out a relentless length which he augmented with seam movement and then reverse swing. For all England’s seam bowling riches, the ghosts of Ashes tours past suggests that Robinson may well be needed this winter.

In Australia four years ago, England handed out three debuts to bowlers, who took nine wickets at 68.8 apiece. While Dawid Malan, who was five Tests into his career, performed admirably , Mark Stoneman and James Vince – three and seven Tests into their career – only averaged in the mid-20s.

Rather than risk a reprise, England would be better sticking to their original plans for using the New Zealand series in part as an exploratory mission, no matter the awkward conversations about who to leave out.