Why Manchester City should pursue Raheem Sterling

Recently there has been a flurry of transfer rumors linking Raheem Sterling to Manchester City. If the rumors are to be believed, City has been offering increasingly high bids of 30, 40, and even 50 million pounds to Liverpool FC in an attempt to pry away the 2014 European Golden Boy.

Some pundits have been quick to judge this potential transfer as a desperate move to shore up an aging squad, or perhaps a just another transfer inflated by Sterling’s English passport. Rio Ferdinand considers it to be just another example of English players going for massively inflated transfer fees. The Independent actually pulled out Football Manager and ran two seasons of simulations to reach a conclusion that Sterling wouldn’t make a great buy. But I’d actually like to disagree. In my opinion, £50 million for Raheem Sterling could actually be a good deal for Manchester City, despite the massive fee.

Sterling is a very versatile player who plays all over the pitch, with most of his apps on the right as a right winger. At Manchester City, Sterling seems like he will be a replacement for Jesus Navas, playing as a right winger. Navas split time with Milner on the right side this season, and with Sterling, City is probably going to make Sterling their starting right winger, with Navas relegated to a rotation or backup option. In my opinion, Sterling compares very favorable to Navas, and will likely be a big step up for Manchester City.

Navas is a traditional winger who has excellent pace and excellent crossing but he offers little else. At Manchester City, Navas’ role is simple, his job is to take the ball, and quickly move it down the right wing where he would either cross it in for a headed goal, or maybe pass diagonally back to a midfielder if the box is packed with defenders. Navas does have world class pace and crossing abilities, but he offers little more than that. With a total of 4 goals in two seasons on an offensively explosive Manchester City team, Navas doesn’t actually provide much of a goalscoring threat.

While playing on the right side, Sterling lacks Navas’ explosive pace and crossing, but he is a better-rounded player. Sterling has excellent shooting and passing, and unlike Navas who will only stay on the right, Sterling can and will drift in and be an overall threat all over the pitch. Sterling also tracks back, and contributes more defensively, although that might be because Liverpool lacks an excellent right back while City has a great one in Pablo Zabaleta. Not only can Sterling assist and create goals like Navas, he can also contribute to other phases and play, and Sterling is much harder to silence than Navas.

As of right now, Sterling is probably a better player than Navas. Yes, they are very different players, but it is not unrealistic to expect Sterling to perform better for Manchester City than Navas on the right side. Even if we assume Sterling doesn’t improve at all from his current level, I consider him to be at least as good as Navas, if not better.

But if we look at Sterling, we have to consider his future potential. He is only 20 years old and performing at such a high level. During his 4 seasons as a first team player with Liverpool, he was voted European Golden Boy, Liverpool Young Player of the Year twice, and he made the shortlist for PFA Young Player of the Year twice (Losing to Hazard and Kane). Obviously, as a player, Sterling has immense potential, and it is not a stretch to say that there is a solid chance that one day he could become a world class right winger.

Most critics of the Sterling transfer aren’t really criticizing the player, but the rumored transfer fee. These critics claim that the alleged £40, £50 million pound transfer fee is ridiculous, and that Manchester City is massively overpaying for Sterling. I disagree, and to me, a £40 or £50 million fee is actually very appropriate for a talent like Sterling. Let’s quickly crunch the numbers behind City’s potential purchase of Raheem Sterling.

First of all, there is risk present with every player. A footballer can get hit by car walking down the sidewalk and suffer a career ending injury. But ignoring these seriously unlikely catastrophic events, I would project Sterling’s floor to be a Jesus Navas level player. Or in other words, at the very worst, Sterling will remain a good, but not superstar level right winger. I think that it is much more likely that Sterling will reach a higher level than Navas at his peak. Alongside world class players like Aguero, it isn’t exactly a stretch to imagine that Sterling can consistently perform at his 2013-2014 level, as one of the best right wingers in the Premier League and arguably a top 10 right winger in the world. Most talent evaluators speak very highly of Sterling, and there is a small, but not negligible chance that perhaps Sterling might become a world class, top 10 in the world player.

Before evaluating the potential bid for Sterling, first we have to consider a baseline. Manchester City were willing to pay £17.6 million for 28 year old Jesus Navas. Most pundits and fans seem to agree that it was a good signing, and considering that there isn’t really any leaks or signs that Pellegrini isn’t happy with Navas, I would say that the club probably considers him to be a pretty good signing too. As a very pace dependent player, I can’t really see Navas keeping up his level of play for much longer. I cannot see him remain a good enough player for a title contending side past 32, so if we average down his transfer fee, City paid £4.4 million per season for Navas.

Assuming that Sterling can play until he is 32, as a 20 year old player, if City pays £40 million, Sterling would cost them an average of £3.3 million per season. If City pays £50 million, Sterling would cost them an average of £4.4 million per season. From a transfer fee perspective, Sterling isn’t really going to cost any more than Navas once you factor in their ages. In other words, Sterling might be 3 times as expensive as Navas, but we can expect his career at City to be 3 times as long as Navas’ stint at Manchester City. If Navas is not commonly perceived to be overpriced, there really isn’t any reason for Sterling to be considered overpriced.

The idea that City is massively overpaying for Sterling is just a form of irrational sticker shock. It is like saying two dozen eggs for £12 is overpriced when 6 eggs sell for £3. There is a higher up front cost with Sterling, but the unit cost per season for Sterling is no higher than Navas. If we look at Manchester City’s recent signings, they paid 22 million for 28 year old Negredo. If we say Negredo can play until he’s 32, that’s £5.5 million per season! They paid £35.2 million for 28 year old Fernandinho, if we assume Fernandinho can play until 34, that’s £5.8 million per season. If we assume Fernandinho has exceptional longtivity, and can play in the Premier League until he’s 36 (well above the average Premier League midfielder), that’s still £4.4 million per season, the same price per season as Sterling if we assume Sterling can play until he’s 32.

I consider Sterling for £50 million to be a great deal, because in my opinion, Sterling’s floor is Navas Level. Or in other words, at the very least, Sterling is the equivalent of 3 Jesus Navas level players. In fact, if we consider the inflation in the transfer market and how fast transfer fees are growing, Sterling is probably going to be cheaper than purchasing three consecutive Navas level players. If Sterling lives up to his billing as a future world class player, he would end up as a huge bargain for Manchester City. If Sterling becomes world class at the age of 25, stays world class until he’s 30, and retires (or leaves City) when he’s 32, City could potentially get 7 seasons of a very good player, and 5 seasons of a world class player for £50 million. Considering the prices nowadays of top players, if Sterling even approaches his world class potential, he would be a massive steal for Manchester City. Just look at Luis Suarez, Barcelona paid £72 million for him when he was 27. If we optimistically say that Suarez can play at a world class level until he’s 32, that’s a whopping £14.4 per world class season!

Sterling at £50 million is a good deal, and that is before we even consider the value of his passport. UEFA and Premier League rules dictate that a club is allowed at most 17 non-home grown players. So a club has to have 8 homegrown players if they would like to register a full squad of 25. With Milner and Lampard’s departure, the only homegrown players in Manchester City’s first team is Joe Hart and Gael Clichy. This means that as of right now, City can only register 19 players above the age of 21. So effectively Sterling doesn’t even “cost” the club a spot in the first team, unlike Navas, Fernadinho, and Negredo. With the FA currently in discussions to decrease the number of non-homegrown players allowed from 17 to 12, the price of all homegrown players will be driven up in the near future. If £50 million for Sterling is a good deal compared to non-homegrown players like Navas, once we factor in his homegrown status, Sterling at £50 million is a fantastic deal.

Sportswriters often say that young players like Sterling lack a proven track record, and that is absolutely true. When they say this, what they are implying of course is that young players like Sterling don’t “deserve” massive transfer fees, and that I do not agree with. Clubs buy players for what they will do in the future, not for what they have done in the past. It is true, players with a long proven track record have a bigger sample size of matches that we can use to assess them, but it shouldn’t be a defining factor in determining a player’s transfer value. Just because a player doesn’t have a long history of playing in the top level doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be valued very highly.

Sterling has two seasons as a starter at Liverpool under his belt. Two seasons worth of starts in the Premier League is more than enough for clubs to determine his talent level and to assess his future potential, and unlike singings from other leagues, Sterling already plays in the Premier League, so there is no need to worry about how he will transition to playing in England. With modern scouting and analytics, two seasons as a starting player is more than enough for a club to assess a player. Bale only had around 3 seasons as a starter at Tottenham before Real Madrid broke the world transfer record to sign him, Suarez arguably only had 1 world class season at Liverpool before Barcelona spent more than £70 million on him, and Diego Costa only had two seasons at Atletico Madrid before Chelsea signed him to start on a title winning team.

At this stage, discussing where Sterling will end up next season is mostly speculation with a bit of guesswork thrown in. But I am definitely not be surprised to hear about Manchester City bidding £50 million for Sterling. £50 million is not an overpay for clubs that are as wealthy as City, and if this deal goes through, I would consider it to be a great piece of business.