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Why the 49ers can be profitable this weekend

The San Francisco 49ers were the biggest underdogs of the divisional round and stunned the Green Bay Packers with a 13-10 victory in snowy Lambeau Field. The 49ers cashed as +200 underdogs and will now face the L.A. Rams in the NFC championship game. The 49ers slide into a comfortable position as +3.5 underdogs. I don't anticipate much line movement, considering the Rams closed as 3.5-point favorites in previous matchups in Weeks 10 and 18. The 49ers won both games outright as underdogs and extended their winning streak against the Rams to six games.

I bet the 49ers +3.5 and on the moneyline. In the NFL playoffs, defense matters most when both teams have top offenses. I think that's what you have between these two NFC West rivals. The 49ers' defense has demonstrated in the last two weeks against the Packers and Cowboys that they can get stops in high-leverage situations against the league's elite offenses. That's going to be the difference on Sunday.

There are a few different ways we can attack the betting market if you see the game playing out similarly to when these two teams faced each other this season. It all starts with the San Francisco moneyline, but I also took a look at two of the plus-money parlays that we can tie in with the total points. BetMGM offers a wide range of options depending on your confidence level on the side and total.

San Francisco moneyline (+160)

We have seen wild-card teams run the table and win the Super Bowl, so don't let the road fatigue narrative talk you out of a winning bet. The 49ers are poison to this Rams team. They are a matchup nightmare on both sides of the ball. PFF's Eric Eager detailed how San Francisco's high volume of pre-snap motion neutralizes the Rams' ability to disguise their coverages on defense, effectively taking away a key component of their defensive scheme.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) pitches the ball during an NFL divisional playoff football game against the Green Bay Packer, Saturday, Jan 22. 2022, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)
The 49ers appear to be in a great spot this weekend. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

In their 27-24 comeback win three weeks ago, the 49ers totaled 449 yards of offense and 8.7 yards per attempt passing. In their previous 31-10 win versus the Rams, Garoppolo was even more efficient throwing for nine yards per pass with only four incompletions. Defensively, the 49ers forced Matt Stafford into two interceptions in both meetings and sacked him five times in Week 18. DeMeco Ryan's defense just shut down Aaron Rodgers and the best team in the NFC. I can't fade them here. The +160 odds imply the 49ers have a win probability of 38%. I am willing to wager that's too low and I am happy to take the 49ers to win this game outright.

Spread and total points 49ers +3.5 and Over 45.5 (+250)

If you are just not sold San Francisco can win but think it will be a close game, there are still bets to be made. I detailed yesterday why I think the game goes over the total, and this wager presents an opportunity to capture the 49ers over the key number of three as part of a +250 parlay. The way the Rams offense has been producing, the 49ers will need to score to stay within the 3.5-point spread. I am confident they will do so, considering they scored at least 27 points in both previous meetings. If we pencil them in for that amount, we only need 19 points from the Rams.

If the total has you concerned, you can reduce it to over 40.5 and bet it at +180 odds. You are getting two offenses that averaged more than 50 points combined to reach a total score of at least 41 points. That sounds doable to me.

49ers to win and both teams to score 20 points or more (+375)

The Rams were held under 20 points only twice this season, but one was at the hands of the 49ers in Week 10. However, the L.A. offense has looked potent as ever in the playoffs. Football Outsiders rank the Rams No. 1 in passing DVOA this postseason. That's ahead of both the Bills and Chiefs, who put on one of the most exciting offensive performances of all time last Sunday night.

This is a higher-risk wager that can pay out big if we get a similar game to what we saw in Week 18. San Francisco's opponents have scored in the 20s in half of their regular-season wins, but failed to do so in both playoff games. This one is inside climate-controlled SoFi Stadium, which is very optimal for both offenses. The indoor track makes me confident the Rams can score enough to make a small wager worth a shot.

Stats provided by teamrankings.com and football outsiders.