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Why Tottenham do not need to panic buy a striker to replace Harry Kane

It was just last month that Tottenham Hotspur completed a hat-trick of firsts under Mauricio Pochettino. Having inflicted Pep Guardiola’s first defeat as a Premier League manager two seasons ago, Spurs won for the first time in 28 years at Stamford Bridge last term.

The Carabao Cup quarter-final victory over Arsenal last month was Pochettino’s first success at the Emirates and, as chance would have it, all three of those milestones were achieved without Harry Kane in the starting line-up.

It is why Pochettino will not be pushed into panic buying after receiving the news that Kane suffered ankle ligament damage against Manchester United and could be out until the start of March.

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That is not to say Spurs will not buy a forward as Pochettino has around £50million to spend if he wants it and the club were already looking at potential replacements for Fernando Llorente.

Liverpool’s Divock Origi is the right age and profile and only has 18 months remaining on his contract, while Pochettino has always been a fan of Jay Rodriguez who is having a good season at West Bromwich Albion and David Pleat, whose opinion is valued by chairman Daniel Levy, has watched Hull City’s Jarrod Bowen.

But Tottenham insiders are adamant that Kane’s injury will not change Pochettino’s planning and that the only potential direct consequence is that Llorente, who had been lined up for a return to Athletic Bilbao, will not be allowed to leave this month.

The difficulty Pochettino faces in trying to sign forwards was perhaps best articulated when he revealed Tottenham’s interest in Alvaro Morata before the former Real Madrid man joined Chelsea in July 2017.

Pochettino said: “Morata talked about me in the media he said, ‘Mauricio called me’. That was from the beginning — two years ago or more. When we spoke he said to me, ‘Why do you want me if you have Harry Kane?’

“You know? If I go to try to sign a striker, they will all say, ‘Uh, gaffer. You want me for what? To be on the bench? Because it’s Harry Kane, I can’t compete with Harry Kane’.”

That exchange may say as much about Morata’s attitude as Tottenham’s dilemma, but it is a fact that any forward the club look at must accept that Kane will always be the main man.

Spurs were given no chance when Guardiola’s City arrived at White Hart Lane in October 2016 on the back of 10 wins and a draw in their first 11 games under the Spaniard. But, without Kane, Pochettino’s team won 2-0 with Dele Alli getting one of the goals.

Pochettino decided to experiment in April last year, when Kane raced back from his last injury to take a place on the substitutes’ bench against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Erik Lamela was employed as a false nine and by the time Kane stepped off the bench in the 74th minute, the game was already won with Alli scoring twice in a 3-1 victory.

Kane started last month’s Carabao Cup quarter-final on the bench due to rotation and once again Alli got on the scoresheet in a memorable 2-0 success over Arsenal.

It is a statistical quirk that during the past three seasons Tottenham’s win percentage is actually higher without Kane and, as a team, they have, very slightly, averaged more goals.

Alli certainly seems to relish filling the void left by Kane. The 22-year-old has ‘only’ scored six goals this season, but it would be no surprise if he suddenly found his shooting boots over the coming weeks.

Since 2015/16, Alli has scored 37 goals in the 113 Premier League matches he has played with Kane, giving him an average of 0.33 goals per game. But that average goes up to 0.44 goals a game when Kane is missing, as Alli has netted four times in the nine League matches he has played without the striker.

Son Heung-min was also on target against Arsenal in December and he started all three of the City, Chelsea and Arsenal games that Tottenham won without Kane.

Fernando Llorente  - Credit: reuters
Fernando Llorente will not be allowed to depart this transfer windowCredit: reuters

The South Korean is now away with his national side at the Asia Cup and the timing of his absence has caused almost as much concern among Tottenham supporters as Kane’s injury itself.

Should South Korea reach the final, then Son will be away until February 2 meaning he would miss the games against Fulham, Chelsea in the Carabao Cup semi-final second leg, Crystal Palace in the FA Cup, Watford and Newcastle United.

It is while he is without both Kane and Son that Pochettino will have to be at his creative best, but he still has options. Llorente scored a hat-trick on his last start against Tranmere in the FA Cup, while Moura, who is on his way back from a knee injury, has scored eight goals this season and played through the middle.

Pochettino will also be well aware of Kane’s record of coming back from injury earlier than predicted. The last time he suffered ankle ligament damage, Spurs put his recovery at six weeks and he was back in three. Reasons to be cheerful may be pushing it, but Tottenham can still feel optimistic without their talisman.