Yahoo Fantasy Hockey: Preparing for the inevitable regression

(Ed. Note: We’re once again pleased to partner with Dobber Hockey to provide fantasy hockey insight throughout the NHL season. Here’s Steve Laidlaw, the Managing Editor of DobberHockey, as your new fantasy hockey smarty-pants!)

By Steve Laidlaw

This week we will take a look at some of the goal scorers with the biggest disparity between their current shooting percentage and their career shooting percentage while also forecasting how many goals they would score if their shooting percentages regress to career levels. The good news for these fast-starters is that the we can’t take back the goals they have already scored so when we look at their regressed goal total it only docks them for games yet to be played and then we add that to whatever they have already contributed.

A few notes on some of these players:

T.J. Oshie, Washington Capitals – He is on the shelf for what looks to be a few weeks so we know that he isn’t going to hit his “on pace” total for goals. He may not even hit his regressed total at this rate.

David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins – It’s crazy to think that even after missing five games and regressing his shooting percentage, Pastrnak is still on pace for 40 goals. That’s thanks to his incredible shot rate, which has him on pace for over 250 shots on goal this season. He’ll need to stay healthy and not see an over-correction in his shooting percentage but this hot start has put 40 goals in play.

Scott Hartnell, Columbus Blue Jackets – This is an interesting case as Hartnell has been buried in the Columbus lineup in favour of younger options. He has gone from an elite net-front guy to a fourth-liner. He is on pace for less than 90 shots. It doesn’t matter how well he shoots, he isn’t scoring much with that kind of shot rate.

Rickard Rakell, Anaheim Ducks – His contract situation at the start of the season and injuries cost him the first nine games of the year, but he is making up for it with new-found shot volume. He is on pace to clear 200 shots for the first time in his career, which is a good way to keep scoring up even as his shooting percentage regresses.

Nick Foligno, Columbus Blue Jackets – We’ve played these games before with Foligno. He sustained at 17 percent shooting percentage for the entire 2014-15 season, a career year in which Foligno scored 31 goals and 73 points. He also did that while shooting more than ever before. Foligno is only on pace for 145 shots, so even if he sustains a high shooting percentage, we still shouldn’t expect a 30-goal performance.

Marian Hossa, Chicago Blackhawks – Maybe we shouldn’t have slept on Big Hoss. Even factoring in regression, he stands a good chance of scoring 30 goals. Of course, injuries are always a looming factor.

Paul Byron, Montreal Canadiens – It is entirely possible that Byron is simply an awesome and selective shooter. He has put up less than a shot per game throughout his career but has also sustained a shooting percentage of 17.4 percent, the highest on this list. In 82 games with Montreal, Byron’s shooting percentage is a sizzling 23.3 percent. Shot volume is a real problem here but he appears to be an excellent depth contributor.

Michael Grabner, New York Rangers– He fell off the map after a 34-goal season back in 2010-11 but the wheels have never left him. Now that he has been unleashed in a Ranger lineup that rolls all four lines to perfection he is shooting more than he has in a long time. That shot volume could sustain him to another 30-goal season considering his ability to convert scoring chances.

Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins – You don’t need me to tell you that Crosby won’t sustain a 70-goal pace. Crosby owners also have very little to worry about, regression puts him on pace for a 44-goal season. More importantly, we know that his elite playmaking skills will show out and make up for whatever drop in goal scoring comes his way.

Steve Laidlaw is the Managing Editor of DobberHockey. Follow him on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

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