Yahoo NFL DFS Picks Week 4: Daily fantasy football lineup advice for GPP tournaments
Sometimes you take a big swing in an NFL DFS tournament -- and sometimes you have a big miss. That was us with our Yahoo GPP lineup picks last week. We nailed a couple of layups (DeAndre Hopkins, Austin Ekeler, Bucs D/ST), but guys like T.Y. Hilton, Jordan Akins, David Montgomery and even Kenyan Drake really let us down. We've officially learned our lesson about picking Hilton (though you know he'll be going off soon), and we're moving on after a classic more-bust-than-boom week. Our Week 4 Yahoo daily fantasy football tournament picks will be better...we hope.
We're once again going with a three-man stack, but this time we're taking more of a risk by targeting the Texans. Deshaun Watson and Co. are yet to have a monster game, but a matchup against the Vikings should change that. All three members of our Houston stack are priced down, so we'll take the savings and apply it elsewhere.
We also have another major value at RB that allows us to pay up for this week's most expensive WR and TE. Whenever you pay top dollar for a player, you need production, and while our WR pick is extra risky, we're willing to take that gamble given the potential payoff.
This lineup is for a Week 4 Yahoo DFS main slate tournament with a $200 budget (half-point PPR and four-point passing TDs)
1 QB Deshaun Watson, Texans vs. Vikings ($30)
Watson hasn't had a huge game yet this year, but a tough early schedule (@ KC, vs. BAL, @ PIT) has had something to do with that. Watson is still a dynamic, dual-threat playmaker who can take advantage of bad defenses, and Minnesota certainly qualifies. The Vikings are allowing 34 points and just under 293 passing yards per game. Watson has QB11 pricing this week, making him a potential bargain given his immense upside.
2 RB David Johnson, Texans vs. Vikings ($17)
Johnson has struggled two weeks in a row to get much going yardage-wise (96 total yards), but he managed to score last week and is still dominating RB snaps in the Texans backfield. Like Watson, tough matchups have held Johnson down the past two weeks, but if we look back to when he had a favorable matchup in Week 1, he went off for 109 total yards and a score. The Vikings have allowed back-to-back 100-yard rushing games and at least one rushing TD in every game this year, so Johnson should produce closer to his Week 1 output. Given his receiving prowess, he's a reasonable stacking partner with Watson, especially at his bargain price.
3 RB David Montgomery, Bears vs. Colts ($14)
Here's your "why-is-this-guy-so-cheap?" play of the week. Montgomery struggled through most of Week 3, so perhaps DFS players are down on him, but $14 for a starting RB who's going to play more/catch more passes after Tarik Cohen's knee injury is a steal. Indianapolis has done a good job against James Robinson (90 total yards), Dalvin Cook (71 total yards, TD), and Frank Gore (62 total yards) this year, so perhaps Montgomery is better suited for cash games than tournaments, but the tough-to-tackle second-year back has more upside than he's shown, especially as a receiver. He'll easily pay off his price
4 WR Michael Thomas, Saints @ Lions ($35)
Obvoiusly, we'll be watching the injury reports closely, but assuming Thomas is back from his ankle injury, we'll take on the risk of paying top dollar for him. It's entirely possible that Thomas will be merely 75 percent and ultimately disappoint, but the Lions pass defense is below average, as shown by DeAndre Hopkins 137-yard outing and Andy Isabella's two touchdowns in Week 3, and even a gimpy Thomas can put up numbers against it. Make no mistake, this is a risk, but we'll hope for slightly depressed ownership for Thomas. If he's out, we'll pivot to Hopkins for $3 cheaper, which is honestly a safer play anyway.
5 WR Adam Thielen, Vikings @ Texans ($24)
Thielen took a backseat to rookie Justin Jefferson in Week 3, but he still managed to haul in his third touchdown of the season. He remains Minnesota's top receiver, and even though Houston has been better against wideouts the past two weeks, this is still a burnable defense at every level. You can find better values than Thielen this week, but he's still a solid option who should produce in what figures to be a high-scoring game.
6 WR Will Fuller V, Texans vs. Vikings ($22)
If you're going to take Watson at QB, it only makes sense to stack him with Fuller. If you're really bold, you could try Brandin Cooks, but we'll stick with the more reliable big-play threat. Fuller shook off a poor Week 2 with a touchdown in Week 3, and it seems like only a matter of time before he has one of his patented "explosion" games. The Vikings allowed several long touchdowns against the Packers in Week 1 before settling down a bit in Weeks 2 and 3, but Fuller has the kind of speed that could expose their secondary this week.
7 TE Mark Andrews, Ravens @ Washington ($27)
Washington has allowed three TE touchdown this year despite playing teams that rarely utilize TEs in Weeks 2 and 3 (Arizona, Cleveland). Andrews remains Baltimore's top scoring threat among pass-catchers, so we'll use the savings we got from our value RBs to pay up for the best TE this week.
8 FLEX Preston Williams, Dolphins vs. Seahawks ($19)
Williams is obviously a tournament-only play, but the talented second-year receiver is overdue for a breakout game. He managed a short touchdown in Week 3 before disappearing the rest of the night, so perhaps a matchup against the worst pass defense in the NFL will get him going. Seattle has been torched by secondary receivers like Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson, and Russell Gage this year, so Williams could be the next random WR to go off against the 'Hawks. It would be nice if he was a few dollars cheaper, but clearly there's a premium for playing WRs against this pass defense.
9 D/ST Philadelphia Eagles @ 49ers ($12)
The Eagles' woes haven't affected their pass rush (12 sacks), and Philly will get either Nick Mullens or a hobbled Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) in Week 4. Even if George Kittle (knee) and Raheem Mostert (knee) are back, the Eagles can get after San francisco's quarterback and force a few mistakes. At just $12, that will be enough for the Eagles to pay off.