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Yahoo Sport UK’s 2000 Guineas guide – Saturday’s top selections

Yahoo Sport UK has teamed up with Bet4Causes to bring you a preview of the day’s British racing – and The Night Hawk marks your card.

The first Flat racing Classics of the season take place on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile this weekend and first up is the Qipco 2000 Guineas.

Here is the preview of today’s big race, complete with all Saturday’s selections and our idea of a Lucky 15 (four singles, six doubles, four trebles and a four-fold).

RACE OF THE DAY: QIPCO 2000 GUINEAS

3.45 Newmarket 1m

FORECAST: Air Force Blue (8/13), Stormy Antarctic (6/1), Galileo Gold (10/1), Marcel (10/1), Massaat (10/1), Buratino (12/1), Air Vice Marshal (25/1), Herald The Dawn (25/1), Ribchester (33/1), First Selection (50/1), Zonderland (66/1), Zhui Feng (100/1), Kentuckyconnection (200/1)

ANALYSIS: A race restricted to three-year-old colts and run over Newmarket’s Rowley Mile is arguably the most pivotal race in the racing industry.

Over the last 30 years, with an enhanced emphasis on speed ensuing from Americanisation of pedigrees, the 2000 Guineas has grown hugely in importance.

In an era where milers are more sought after than ever as breeding stock, the one Classic mile event naturally attains a greater profile.

Yet there is no appreciable improvement in the quality of Guineas performances. The standard continues to vary quite appreciably from one year to the next, and the traditional complaint – that the Classic comes too early in the season – is frequently reflected in the end-of-season ratings.

Arguably the two best winners in recent times were Sea The Stars (2009) and Frankel (2011).

We could see another potential superstar this afternoon in the shape of Air Force Blue, who will bid to give Aidan O’Brien his eighth 2000 Guineas victory, following those of King Of King (1998), Rock Of Gibraltar (2002), Footstepsinthesand (2005), George Washington (2006), Henrythenavigator (2008), Camelot (2012) and Gleneagles (2015).

Air Force Blue (above) has dominated the ante-post market for the race and is expected to go off the shortest-priced favourite since Frankel bolted up at odds of ½.

His only defeat came in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and he rattled off three subsequent top-class victories in the Phoenix Stakes and National Stakes at the Curragh, and the Dewhurst Stakes over 7f at Newmarket last October.

That last run saw him power home and once he hit the rising ground, he strode clear with authority. Although he has an extra furlong to race today and is fitted with a first-time tongue-tie to help his breathing, the expected soft ground should not be detriment to him.

If there is a negative, he is a May foal and horses that are so young often see their rivals maturing faster over the winter months. In the last 24 years, the only Guineas winners born after the first week in April were Dawn Approach and Rodrigo De Triano.

The positives far outweigh the negatives, however.

Emotionless, who won the Champagne Stakes and who was ante-post second favourite, is not deemed ready to run, so bypasses a second crack at the Dewhurst winner.

So second-favouritism currently belongs to Stormy Antarctic, who chased home the O’Brien-trained Johannes Vermeer in the 7f Group 1 Criterium at Saint-Cloud in November in very soft ground. Ed Walker’s runner was taking a massive step up in class that day and while he won the Craven Stakes here on his season debut, one wonders whether he would have the class to win this. Any rain would help his cause, as he handles cut better than many of his rivals.

Two weeks before that run, Johannes Vermeer had been beaten by Marcel (below) in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, having gone there with just a Newmarket maiden to his name. Held up at the back of that 1m Group 1, he powered home without his rider ever having to get serious with him.

Peter Chapple-Hyam won the 2000 Guineas with Rodrigo De Triano way back in 1992, but did win the Derby with Authorized in 2007, so knows how to get one ready for the big day. He will handle the ground, is proven over this trip and his breeding suggests he will be better over a bit further.

Massaat was a fine second to Air Force Blue in the Dewhurst for Barry Hills, who retired at the end of last season and the Teofilo colt is now in the care of Owen Burrows.

He has over three lengths to find with the winner but appeared to have a bit more scope for improvement and has reportedly strengthened up over the winter. There is plenty to like about him.

With plenty of rain over the past few days, there has been good money for Galileo Gold. Trained by Hugo Palmer, he won the Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood in August and then on ground that was thought to be plenty quick enough, ran a fine third in the Group 1 Grand Criterium in October. He does not have the best draw, having to come widest of all from stall 1, but there is little chance he will get boxed in, so Frankie Dettori’s mount is worth a second look.

Butratino was sent off favourite for the Phoenix Stakes but could not confirm his Coventry Stakes win over Air Force Blue and Mark Johnston would arguably have preferred quicker ground for the son of Exceed And Excel, who has yet to race beyond 6f.

Of the remainder Mill Reef winner Ribchester looked to be traveling well before hanging badly left in a heavy-ground French Group 3 three weeks ago and may well improve for the step up to a mile. Anything ridden by William Buick has to be respected.

Grand Criterium fifth, First Selection. And seventh, Herald The Dawn, are also worthy of taking their place in the line-up.

SELECTION: AIR FORCE BLUE

EACH-WAY: MARCEL

LUCKY 15 SELECTIONS

LIMINI (Punchestown 3.35) can land the Mares’ Champion Hurdle for the Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh partnership. A three-time winner since joining Mullins, including a Grade 2 mares’ novices hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (above), she had her colours lowered at Aintree by Buveur D’Air, which was no disgrace considering she was taking on the boys. Indeed, she was a fair third and that case came quickly enough after her Cheltenham exertions. She rates a decent proposition.

SOLAR FLAIR (Goodwood 2.50) was a progressive three-year-old last season, winning twice at over 7f Newmarket and Lingfield. He ran a fine second on his four-year-old debut from a bad draw at Kempton and while now 13lb higher than for his last win, there is more improvement to come from William Knight’s representative. Back on turf today, he has gone close a couple of times at this track and while in a highly competitive handicap, he should go well. Either way, he looks one to follow this season.

MOSSPARK (Uttoxeter 3.35) is hard work for whoever rides him. Daryl Jacob usually has the unenviable task of riding Emma Lavelle’s reluctant chaser, who was a fresh horse when scoring with ease at Sandown in soft ground six weeks ago. The encouraging thing was he jumped with aplomb without his usual headgear and while up 8lb for that win, he was a Listed scorer over hurdles, so his ability remains still largely untapped over fences. There is scope for improvement and the stable has been going well of late, so he gets the vote in the 3m handicap.

KELTUS (Hexham 5.55) looks an obvious choice in the 2m4f novices’ chase and is the only runner on the card for 10-times champion trainer Paul Nicholls. His jumping is not always the most fluent, but a small field of six will certainly help. Fourth in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival two years ago, he was thought good enough to contest Listed novice handicap chases last spring and while he has not run over fences since finishing second at Newbury in November 2014, this represents a class drop which should provide a confidence-boosting win.

OTHER SELECTIONS

NEWMARKET: 2.00 Mutamakkin, 2.30 Lancelot Du Lac, 3.05 Jack Hobbs, 3.45 Air Force Blue, 4.20 Venturous, 4.55 Tathqeef, 5.30 Bahaarah

GOODWOOD: 1.45 Salient, 2.15 Moderah, 2.50 Solar Flair (nb), 3.25 Normal Equilibrium, 4.00 Black Cherry, 4.35 Destroyer, 5.10 Captain Peacock

PUNCHESTOWN: 2.35 Cantlow, 3.10 Heathfield, 3.50 LIMINI (NAP), 4.25 Apple’s Jade, 5.00 Archie Meade, 5.35 Champagne At Tara, 6.10 Mai Fitzs Jack, 6.40 Ibsen

THIRSK: 2.10 Lawless Louis, 2.45 One Boy, 3.20 Udontdodou, 3.55 Wilde Inspiration, 4.30 Rosy Morning, 5.05 High Bridge, 5.40 Long Awaited

UTTOXETER: 1.50 Matchaway, 2.25 Zamdy Man, 3.00 Wintered Well, 3.35 Mosspark, 4.10 Maybe Plenty, 4.45 Louis Phillipe, 5.20 Master Ally, 5.50 Badger Wood

DONCASTER: 5.15 Rhythm And Blues, 5.45 Muir Lodge, 6.15 Foresight, 6.45 Sliceoflife, 7.15 Quality Time, 7.45 Rock On Bollinski, 8.15 Desert Encounter

HEXHAM: 5.25 Hunters Belt, 5.55 Keltus, 6.25 Clan Legend, 6.55 Little Glenshee, 7.25 The Highlander, 5.55 Sakhee’s City, 8.25 Oscar Lateen

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