Yahoo Sport UK’s Grand National Day preview

Yahoo Sport UK has teamed up with the experts at Bet4Causes to bring you a preview of the day’s British racing – and The Night Hawk marks your card.

It is Crabbie’s Grand National Day at Aintree. The race that stops the nation is due off at 5.15pm. Can Many Clouds (below) become the first horse since Red Rum in 1973-74 to win back-to-back Grand Nationals?

We take a close look at his chances, but before that, there are five top-class races at the Liverpool track and we analyse every one of them.

1.35 GASKELLS HANDICAP HURDLE (GRADE 3)

3m 149y

FORECAST: If In Doubt (5/1), Arpege D'alene (7/1), Long House Hall (10/1), Mydor (10/1), Rock The Kasbah (12/1), Squouateur (12/1), Ubak (12/1), Ballycross (14/1), Eshtiaal (14/1), Silsol (14/1), Kings Palace (16/1), Murrayana (16/1), Tiger Roll (16/1), At Fishers Cross (20/1), Childrens List (20/1), Urban Hymn (20/1), Join The Clan (25/1), Minella Daddy (25/1), Pinnacle Panda (25/1), Ruacana (25/1), Saddlers Encore (25/1), Rolling Maul (33/1)

ANALYSIS: No less than 22 runners are set to go to post today for this competitive handicap, but it is worth noting that three last three winners all came from one of the first two in the betting market. Indeed, six of the last 10 renewals have been won by horses that were either favourite, co-favourite or second favourite.

Horses aged 6yo have won five of the last 10 renewals. David Pipe and Jonjo O’Neill have saddled five of the last 10 winners. Eight of the last 10 winners were rated between 130-138, although two of the last four successful were rated 145-plus.

One of those near the top of the handicap is If In Doubt, who was a fine third behind Mall Dini and Arpege D’alene in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival and but for finding trouble in running, would probably have won (Join The Clan 10th). He carries 1lb more today, but may well reverse the form.

Gordon Elliott trained last year’s winner Taglietelle and he saddles Eshtiaal and Tiger Roll. The former won a decent staying Flat handicap at York last summer and ended the season going close in a valuable American hurdle. He won his pipe opener on the Flat at Dundalk over 2m under a 7lb claimer and has an inviting weight.

Elliott also runs Squouateur (pictured below), who was favourite for the Martin Pipe, but did not appear to handle the drying ground, rather than his revised mark. He could be a different proposition today.

Kings Palace was third to Empire Of Dirt over fences at Cheltenham but tis track is not sure to play to his strengths.

Ubak dropped down in class when third to Diamond King in the Coral Cup, but the runner-up in that, Long House Hall, travelled really well on his return from chasing and may be able to cope with a 3lb rise for that.

Mydor is a hold-up horse who needs to be played late. He looked as though there was a good pot to be won with him when an unlucky third at Fairyhouse last month.

Rock The Kasbah and Ballycross, the latter who was raised 13lb for winning at Sandown, may be slightly too high in the weights now.

WINNER: MYDOR

EACH-WAY: SQUOUATEUR

2.25 MERSEY NOVICES’ HURDLE (GRADE 1)

2m 4f

FORECAST: Yorkhill (1/3), Le Prezien (7/1), Flying Angel (10/1), Bello Conti (12/1), The Dutchman (25/1), Ghost River (33/1), Prince Of Steal (33/1)

ANALYSIS: The likes of Simonsig, Morley Street, Wayward Lad and Best Mate are on the roll of honour for a race that invariably is won by those near the head of the market. Indeed, eight of the last 10 winners have come from the top two in the betting. The Irish have trained one winner since 2003, but Willie Mullins snapped that barren spell last year with Nichols Canyon.

He saddles Yorkhill, who is unbeaten under Rules, with his last two wins coming at the highest level, including when beating Yanworth in the Neptune Investment at Cheltenham last month. He looks like being a long odds-on favourite and if he stands up, the remainder appear to be playing for place money.

Bello Conti is the Mullins second string and was beaten 13-lengths by Yorkhill at Cheltenham. He has had just the three runs and is sure to progress further.

Le Prezien was second to Yanworth on his UK debut at Warwick and has won three of four subsequent starts, including the Grade 2 Premier Hurdle at Kelso last time. He will relish any drying ground and rates the biggest danger.

Flying Angel slammed the Imperial Cup field before running second to Ibis Du Rheu in the Martin Pipe. He is a progressive 5yo and is worthy of his place in this Grade 1, even though he might not yet be ready for this.

Prince Of Steal seeks a hat-trick after winning twice at Fakenham, but along with Ghost River and The Dutchman, is merely making up the numbers.

WINNER: YORKHILL

RUNNER-UP: FLYING ANGEL

3.00 MAGHULL NOVICES’ CHASE (GRADE 1)

1m 7f 176y

FORECAST: Douvan (1/6), Alisier D’irlande (7/1), The Game Changer (16/1), Fox Norton (20/1), Ballybolley (33/1)

ANALYSIS: Champion Chase winners Sprinter Scare, Finians Rainbow and Flagship Uberalles are among those who have won this race, with the former landing this at odds of 1/7 in 2012.

The trends point to winners coming from the top of the market, with 12 of the last 13 coming from the first two in the betting.

Douvan (above) needs little introduction. He has won his last nine races over hurdles and fences and his seven-length defeat of Sizing John was one of the highlights of the Cheltenham Festival. He seeks a sixth Grade 1 victory this afternoon and is already the 5/4 favourite with Bet4Causes to win next year’s Champion Chase.

Alisier D’Irelade looks a horse with a decent future, judged by the way he routed handicappers who were rated 125 and 131 in soft ground at Leopardstown. He is a horse with an engine and Aintree should suit, although he does have the tendency to put in at least head-scratching jump per race.

Fox Norton and The Game Changer were third and fourth in the Arkle. The latter may come on for the run, but would appreciate drying ground, which he does not get here.

Ballybolley has twice won at Aintree, but he has just one win over fences (over 2m4f) and decent ground is important to him. He should not have the pace to cope with Douven.

WINNER: DOUVEN

EACH-WAY: FOX NORTON

3.40 LIVERPOOL STAYERS’ HURDLE (GRADE 1)

3m 149y

FORECAST: Thistlecrack (2/7), Different Gravey (6/1), Prince Of Scars (10/1), Shaneshill (12/1), Serienschock (50/1), Aqalim (66/1)

ANALYSIS: The World Hurdle is a great guide to finding the winner of this race, with 10 of the last 13 winners having run in that race previously. All of the last 13 winners have come from the first three in the betting and six of the last 13 justified favouritism.

Big Buck’s won four successive renewals and Whisper has won the last two, but Thistlecrack (above), despite landing the World Hurdle with ease, is likely to go chasing next season and may not line up here in 2017 to follow up what expected to be nothing more than a coronation today. Colin Tizzard struck here with Native River in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase yesterday and this 8yo is expected to plunder another Group 1 for the yard before going over fences next season.

Of those routed by him at Cheltenham, only Aqalim renewals rivalry, but he should not really come into contention.

Different Gravey steps out of handicaps to tackle the brilliant stayer and is likely to go chasing next season too. He is improving and did brilliantly in conceding 10lb to his rivals at Ascot to win following 309 days off the track. That was over fences, though.

Shaneshill was runner-up to Blaklion in the RSA Chase, form not exactly franked yesterday, but his second in last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle puts him in with a shout now that he reverts back to the smaller obstacles.

Prince Of Scars won the Grade 1 Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle in soft ground and is a chaser in the making. He would not want the ground to dry out, but whether he has the gears to trouble the World Hurdle winner is debatable.

WINNER: THISTLECRACK

EACH-WAY: SHANESHILL

4.20 HANDICAP CHASE (LISTED)

3m 149y

FORECAST: Mystifiable (4/1), Coologue (7/1), Knock House (7/1), Cernunnos (8/1), No Secrets (10/1), Roc D'apsis (10/1), Cloudy Too (12/1), Band Of Blood (14/1), Little Jon (14/1), Maggio (14/1), Thomas Brown (14/1), Virak (14/1), Warden Hill (14/1), Al Co (20/1), Racing Pulse (20/1)

ANALYSIS: Six winners in the last decade have returned with a double-figure Starting Price and just two favourites have prevailed in the last 10 years. Only two horses have carried 11st or more to victory since 2004. Previous winners include Jonjo O’Neill’s Don’t Push It, who returned 12 months later to land the rand National. State Of Play was also placed in the national twice after winning this and more recently, Saint Are won this in 2012 before finishing runner-up in the National last year. Only two of the last 10 winners had won their previous race.

Mystifiable will be out to buck that trend, having defied an 8lb hike at Leicester with ease in a 2m6f½f novices’ handicap, following up a 2m4f handicap success at Leicester. He has plenty of potential and is ahead of the handicapper at present. Like fellow novice Cernunnos, he steps up in trip.

Mick Channon (above) saddles two, Warden Hill and Knock House. The former has not run since last April when scoring with ease at Market Rasen. Prior to that, he was a distant second to subsequent 2015 Gold Cup winner Coneygree at Kempton. He is no forlorn hope. Knock House might be the better option, though, following his storming effort to finish fourth to Cause Of Causes in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham.

Cloudy Too won the 3m Peter Marsh Chase in heavy ground at Haydock in January, with Virak 15 lengths behind, so must be a contender.

Coologue is only 2lb higher than when chasing home Ziga Boy in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster in January on his handicap debut. He will appreciate this step back up in trip.

No Secrets has been beaten a combined 93 lengths in his last two starts in heavy ground and has become a little frustrating, while it remains to be seen whether blinkers have a better effect on Thomas Brown a second time after a couple of below-par displays. His jumping has become pressured at this rarefied level.

WINNER: KNOCK HOUSE

EACH-WAY: CLOUDY TOO

5.15 CRABBIE’S GRAND NATIONAL CHASE (GRADE 3 HANDICAP)

4m 2f 74y

FORECAST: Many Clouds (7/1), The Last Samuri (8/1), Silviniaco Conti (10/1), Gallant Oscar (14/1), Holywell (14/1), Saint Are (14/1), The Druids Nephew (14/1), Goonyella (16/1), Shutthefrontdoor (16/1), Ucello Conti (16/1), Kruzhlinin (20/1), Morning Assembly (20/1), Sir Des Champs (20/1), Boston Bob (25/1), O'Faolains Boy (25/1), Triolo D'Alene (25/1), Unioniste (25/1), First Lieutenant (33/1), Hadrian’s Approach (33/1), Just A Par (33/1), Le Reve (33/1), On His Own (33/1), Onenightinvienna (33/1), Rule The World (33/1), Soll (33/1), The Romford Pele (33/1), Wonderful Charm (33/1), Ballycasey (50/1), Ballynagour (50/1), Black Thunder (50/1), Buywise (50/1), Gilgamboa (50/1), Katenko (50/1), Pendra (50/1), Rocky Creek (50/1), Vics Canvas (50/1), Vieux Lion Rouge (50/1), Aachen (66/1), Double Ross (66/1), Home Farm (66/1)

ANALYSIS: Many Clouds Won this 4m2½f marathon last year as a 25/1 shot and was spring-heeled in doing so. Everything has been geared to this race since beating Saint Are on good to soft ground. He runs off a 5lb higher mark, but only carries just 1lb more in the saddle. He won well at Kelso last time in a re-scheduled race put on at the behest of the trainer. Has a live chance of becoming only the first dual winner of the race since Red Rum 42 years ago and is currently an 8/1 chance with Bet4Causes who pay the first five places each-way.

Last year’s runner-up Saint Are Had a nice tune-up in a veterans chase at Doncaster and is 1lb lower than when second in this, making hi 2lb better off with Many Clouds.

The Last Samurai beat The Druids Nephew in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster and looks thrown in on the handicap on that form. The Druids Nephew was travelling strongly when coming to grief four out last year. He carries just 5lb more and has been trained for this all along.

Shutthefrontdoor was fifth when favourite for this last year after having only six previous chase starts, so experience may see him take a step forward. While Silvinaco Conti has never won beyond 3m1f, he is a seven-time Grade 1 winner, all on flat, galloping tracks like Aintree.

Holywell is not the biggest but has decent credentials and there was plenty to like about his second in the Ultima Chase at Cheltenham. He should stay the trip. Morning Assembly, was behind him last time, but probably needed the run and he was among the top novice chasers a couple of years ago.

O’Faolains Boy, though well beaten behind Don Cossack in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, has won three of his nine starts over fences and won the Grade One RSA Chase at Cheltenham two seasons ago. First Lieutenant won the Grade 1 Lancashire Chase here over 3m1f in 2013 and was a fine third in the Hennessy in soft ground (3m2f) in November.

Sir Des Champs is a class act, who had almost two years out through injury before making a winning return at Thurles in November. Ruby Walsh takes the ride and there are worse outsiders if he gets into a rhythm.

Goonyella is a Midlands National winner and Scottish National runner-up. He will stay all day but may not have the pace to trouble the leaders.

Kruzhlinin won at Kempton in January after 11 months off. He still has a bit to find with Holywell and Morning Assembly on his last run at Cheltenham, for which he went up 10lb, but holds each-way prospects.

Rule The World has gone close a few times and while he has never fallen in 13 chase starts, he has never won, either.

Boston Bob, winner of the Grade 1 Melling Chase here two years ago and the Punchestown Gold Cup, is attempting to follow up his defeat of stablemate On His Own in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse in February, while Gallant Oscar has had a light campaign and caught the eye in the Lienster National at Naas last time.

VERDICT:

1. MANY CLOUDS

2. SIR DES CHAMPS

3. SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR

4. MORNING ASSEMBLY

5. BOSTON BOB

See our Pinstickers Guide to the Grand National for more…

6.10 HANDICAP HURDLE (CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS AND AMATEUR RIDERS)

2m 103y

FORECAST: Automated (6/1), Allee Bleue (7/1), Thunder Sheik (7/1), Frodon (10/1), Nesterenko (10/1), All Set To Go (12/1), Boite (12/1), Always Resolute (14/1), Madfuninthewest (14/1), Master Jake (14/1), Tempo Mac (14/1), Bigmartre (16/1), Ivan Grozny (16/1), Sir Chauvelin (20/1), Dell’ Arca (25/1), Mr Boss Man (25/1), My Manekineko (25/1), Nabucco (25/1), Sgt Reckless (25/1), Sir Ector (25/1), War Singer (25/1), Chieftain’s Choice (50/1)

ANALYSIS: Never the easiest finale for punters with six of the previous seven winners of the race returning a double-figure Starting Price. Six of the last seven winners were rated between 130 and 139, so it pays to look near the top of the handicap.

No less than 22 runners go to post and Automated will have some support on the strength of his 6-length Navan win. A 75-rated performer on the Flat, he is progressing nicely for Gordon Elliott and while the handicapper has taken no chances with him, he should be more effective on better ground. He has a mark of 128, so runs below the trend threshold of 130 set by previous winners of this.

Allee Blue was fifth in the Imperial Cup off today’s mark (his handicap debut) and was prominent for a long way. He won a poor novice event last time but he is an improving horse and certainly one for the shortlist.

All Set To Go was rated 100 on the Flat and ran out a ready winner at Taunton last time on decent ground. If it dries out, his Flat speed should see him make an impact. One for the notebook.

Thunder Sheik has won at Haydock and Newbury, his resurgence coinciding with drier ground. The plan was to run in the Swinton Hurdle, so to see him rock up here may be a tip in itself.

Boite returned from a near seven-month absence to finish a good second to Gala Ball at Newbury on his handicap debut and should strip fitter. There is not a lot between him and Thunder Sheik on a line through Gala Ball.

Master Jake looks a chaser in the making judged on his all-the-way soft ground success at Sedgefield. He may be a little inexperienced over hurdles for a race of this quality, though.

Bigmatre was well beaten in the Rossington Main at Haydock when he could not dominate and appears as though he needs a bit further than this.

Frodon got a little outpaced in the Triumph Hurdle and he does not look as well treated as stablemate All Set To Go.

Always Resolute needs to brush up on his jumping but trainer Brian Ellison knows the time of day and while Nesterenko is respected, hailing from the Nicky Henderson yard, he is ground dependent and any rain would hamper his chance.

WINNER: ALL SET TO GO

EACH-WAY: BOITE

SELECTIONS FOR OTHER MEETINGS

CHEPSTOW: 2.15 One Style, 2.50 Mere Anarchy, 3.30 Heroes Or Ghosts, 4.05 Mr Mafia, 4.40 Waldorf Salad, 5.35 Celestial Magic, 6.05 Alberto’s Dream, 6.35 Admiral’s Secret

LINGFIELD: 2.00 Venus Grace, 2.35 Foreceful Appeal, 3.10 Dutch Uncle, 3.45 Maximain, 4.15 Tutu Nguru, 4.50 FASHAAK (NAP), 5.40 Speculator

SEDGEFIELD: 2.05 Jonny Eager, 2.40 Mardale, 3.20 Sakhee’s City, 3.55 Discoverie, 4.30 Thankyou Very Much, 5.00 Agent Louise, 5.45 Attimo (nb)

WOLVERHAMPTON: 6.20 City Of Angkor Wat, 6.50 Accladora, 7.20 Yasir, 7.50 Mont Ras, 8.20 Magical Path, 8.50 Ms Gillard, 9.20 Wildomar

GOWRAN PARK: 1.20 Discipline, 1.50 Pacodali, 2.20 New Direction, 2.55 Newsman, 3.25 Three Star General, 4.00 Oiche Mhaith Boy, 4.35 Radanpour

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