If alarm bells were not ringing already, they definitely are now after Manchester City’s 2-1 defeat at the hands of Aston Villa on Saturday – the Premier League champions’ ninth defeat in their last 12 games in all competitions. Here are 12 reasons why Pep Guardiola’s team have moved beyond worrying blip to full-on meltdown:

Pep Guardiola’s demeanour

It has been extraordinary to watch Guardiola through this run. The greatest manager of his generation – and potentially the best of all – has seemingly run out of ideas and you can see the toll it is taking on him. He has admitted he is struggling to sleep or eat, and last week said: “Sometimes I lose my mind”.

There were the scratches on Guardiola’s nose and head after the 3-3 draw with Feyenoord, and even against Aston Villa on Saturday he appeared in anguish as he threw a bottle into the turf. This run is taking its toll.

A squad that is not getting any younger

Losing Rodri was hugely unfortunate, but it appears to have exposed the fact this is a season too far for the brilliant Champions League winning side of 2023. To varying extents all of Kyle Walker, Ilkay Gundogan, Bernardo Silva and Kevin De Bruyne have struggled, with Walker in particular seeing his form nosedive. Guardiola will stay to see the regeneration of this team but may wish he had begun the process sooner.

Erling Haaland showing he is mortal

The Norwegian is an arch goalscorer whose record is simply unquestionable. When the goals dry up, though, he comes under increasing scrutiny over his lack of all-round involvement. Haaland had scored 14 goals this season before this run, but has four in his last 11 games. He is having one shot fewer per game and his shot conversion rate has dropped from 23.3 per cent to 9.8 per cent. He has admitted that he has not been at his best, and it has affected City.

Allowing teams to play straight through them

Villa’s opener was remarkably simple: a straight pass from Emiliano Martínez to Youri Tielemans, and a straight pass from Tielemans to Morgan Rogers. Rogers in turn set up Jhon Durán to score but this was a basic goal of a type that has become increasingly common. City have become far easier to play against, and to score against.

Losing their aura

“That felt pretty routine today,” said Peter Crouch on TNT Sports for how easy the win was for Villa. It was hard to argue. City’s aura has gone and who knows when it will return.

A physically dominant team is repeatedly dominated

Guardiola’s best teams have mixed steel with silk. Playing four centre-backs in defence and having Rodri patrolling in front of them will guarantee that, as will having Haaland up front. Now, though, a central midfield of Gundogan and Mateo Kovacic feels lightweight, and it has become a recurring theme – you do not have to win the physical battle to have a chance.

The struggles of Foden and Grealish

Phil Foden scored his first goal of the season in the final seconds of the game at Villa Park – a scarcely believable statistic for the reigning player of the rear. That still looks good compared to Jack Grealish, though, who has now gone more than a year without a goal. For two of the English flagbearers in this team it is an awful return.

The slow decline of Kevin De Bruyne

De Bruyne has been one of the great players of the Premier League era, and will go down as a City legend. This season, though, has been a struggle. Guardiola has not always selected him after injury and had to deny there had been a rift between them. If this is his final campaign it is a sad way to finish.

The slow decline of Ederson

Ederson has been one of the finest goalkeepers of the Premier League era, and will go down as a City legend. This season, though, has been a struggle. The Brazilian has even been replaced by Stefan Ortega and his place is no longer guaranteed. If this is his final campaign it is a sad way to finish.

Former academy talents blazing a trail

One of City’s hallmarks has been their confidence in the transfer market. They have always allowed players to leave if they are unhappy, and have rarely regretted it. Now, though, the tables have turned. Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers have been two of the best players in the division this season, and both were allowed to leave City in the summer of 2022. What City would give to have them now.

Conceding in clusters

As an insight into City’s fragility, few things are more telling than how they have conceded in clusters in five of the last 12 games. They are: the three goals in eight minutes against Sporting Lisbon (lost 4-1), two in five against Brighton (lost 2-1), two in seven against Tottenham (lost 4-0), three in 15 minutes against Feyenoord (drew 3-3) and two in two minutes against Manchester United (lost 2-1).

Records they are breaking

You can scarcely believe these records all belong to a Pep Guardiola team:

• 5 Defeats in a row suffered by City in October and November, the worst run of Guardiola’s career. He had never previously lost more than three games in a row as a manager.

• 27 Goals conceded in their last 12 matches, the most of any team from Europe’s top five leagues since the start of November. In contrast, they let in only 43 across the entire Treble-winning campaign in 2022-23.

• 2006 The last time City endured such a torrid run, winning just one game in 10 under Stuart Pearce.

• 9 Defeats suffered in their last 12 matches. That is more than they had suffered in their previous 105 games combined.

Last time other members of ‘Big Six’ had run of losing nine in 12 games:

Chelsea 25/05/2023 (run ended)
Tottenham 26/12/1997
Arsenal 23/03/1977
Man Utd 16/12/1961
Liverpool 23/01/1954