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AFC championship game preview: Josh Allen and Bills try again to knock off Chiefs

frank schwab
Senior writer
·5-min read

The Buffalo Bills have tried beating the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs three times this decade. They are 0-3.

At least the Bills don't have a history of four straight disappointments in big postseason games.

It's easy to set the stage for a fantastic AFC championship game matchup. In one corner are the Chiefs, chasing NFL history as they try to be the first team to win three straight Super Bowls. The dynasty keeps getting stronger, with a seventh straight appearance in the AFC title game.

The Bills have never won a Super Bowl, though they've been a contender the past few seasons. The Chiefs have stopped them three times. Buffalo lost at Kansas City in the AFC championship game four years ago, lost a heartbreaker after taking a lead with 13 seconds left in a divisional-round game three years ago, then last season they got the Chiefs at home for a divisional-round game and lost that one, too.

This meeting should produce another fantastic game. The result will change legacies on both sides.

Arrowhead Stadium | Kansas City

6:30 p.m. ET

This game will be broadcast on CBS and streamed live on Paramount+.

The Chiefs are favored, but not by much. Kansas City is a 2-point favorite at BetMGM. The line has moved from Chiefs -1.5 to -2 despite 58% of the bets coming in on the Bills.

In the first meeting between the teams, a 31-20 Bills win, Buffalo was favored by 2.5 at home. The total for the game is 47.5.

Josh Allen and the Bills are trying to finally get over the hump and reach the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' dynasty remains in their way. (Yahoo Sports/Amber Matsumoto)
Josh Allen and the Bills are trying to finally get over the hump and reach the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' dynasty remains in their way. (Yahoo Sports/Amber Matsumoto)

From all the way back in August, everyone understood that Travis Kelce wouldn't be a workhorse during the season at age 35, and would be saved for the playoffs. Then when it happened, everyone seemed surprised.

Kelce, who had one 100-yard game all season, had 117 yards in the divisional round against the Houston Texans. It seems just like last year, when Kelce had a fairly quiet regular season and then posted 355 yards and three touchdowns in the playoffs.

Kelce had an even quieter regular season in 2024, with a career-low 823 yards while averaging a career-low 8.5 yards per catch. Before last season, when Kelce averaged 10.6 yards per catch, he had never had a season average lower than 12.2. The Chiefs understood his limitations, considering how little success there has been for tight ends his age.

Based on last week, it seems like he might have enough left for one more big postseason push.

Last Sunday should change how we view the Bills. The narrative, shaped by those who support Josh Allen over Lamar Jackson for NFL MVP, was that the Bills are a subpar team carried along by Allen. Then the Bills beat the Ravens with Allen having a pretty quiet game. Allen had just 127 yards passing and 20 yards rushing. He wasn't bad, it's just that the Bills had other ways to win.

Realistically, Allen is going to have to play great to beat the Chiefs. He had 262 passing yards and 55 rushing yards when the Bills beat the Chiefs in Week 11. But the Bills are more than just Allen.

The Bills' offense shifted when it promoted Joe Brady to offensive coordinator in the middle of last season to run the ball more, and Buffalo does it well with James Cook, who had 16 rushing touchdowns in the regular season. The Bills aren't a great defensive team — 12th in EPA allowed per play, 16th in success rate — but they're good enough to keep the team in the game. Buffalo held the Chiefs to just 259 yards in the regular-season meeting. Contrary to what you've heard, the Bills are a good all-around team. And for this game, they'll probably also need Allen to play like an MVP to bring it home.

The Chiefs just need to make it a close game, apparently. Kansas City has a streak of 16 straight wins in one-score games, which is an NFL record and also a mathematical miracle. While winning that many close games in a row is a bit fortunate, there's a reason for it. The Chiefs have been in so many pressure situations, they are well equipped to handle it. That gives them a massive edge in big games. While the Bills have the baggage of playoff failures the past few seasons, Kansas City thrives when games get tight.

The Chiefs will need to keep Josh Allen from breaking too many game-changing runs, it would be ideal if Kansas City got a struggling run game going, and it wouldn't hurt to have someone like rookie receiver Xavier Worthy make some big plays.

But the Chiefs have a massive edge in the intangible parts of each game. That's why every close game goes their way. The Bills better make sure it's not close at the end.

The Bills are probably the better team in this game. Plenty of analytics, like DVOA or EPA per play, will tell you that. Buffalo won the regular-season meeting. But we've seen plenty of "better teams" lose to the Chiefs. It's almost useless to extrapolate the Chiefs' regular-season results to the playoffs; last season showed that any flaws Kansas City shows don't ultimately matter. The Chiefs just find ways to win big games. So while it makes logical sense to pick the Bills to win the AFC championship and advance to their first Super Bowl in 31 years, a lot of well-meaning and well thought-out picks against the Chiefs in the playoffs have had a familiar result. Chiefs 23, Bills 17