AFC Championship preview - Chiefs to freeze out Patriots?

The Kansas City Chiefs won their first playoff game for a quarter of a century when holding off the Indianapolis Colts 31-13 in the Divisional round last weekend and now get the chance to play for the trophy which bears the name of their founder, Lamar Hunt, who also started the league that eventually became the AFC.

The Chiefs have never won an AFC championship. Even though they appeared in two Super Bowl games – the first played after the 1966 season and the second after the 1969 season – in both cases they appeared in the game as the representative of the original AFL. The AFC didn’t come into being until the 1970 season.

They now face the New England Patriots, who are incredibly competing in their eighth straight AFC Championship game.

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The Chiefs are 8-1 at home this season, their only loss – a 28-29 defeat – coming at the hands of division rival Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15.

The Patriots, who knocked off the Chargers at home 41-28 in a game that was not as close as the score would suggest in last week’s Divisional round – are 3-5 on the road this season.

Chiefs are considered 3.0-point GentingBet handicap favourites at odds of 10/11, although they can also be backed at 3/4 to successfully concede 2.5 points on the handicap.

The Patriots, who lost a heartbreaker to the Philadelphia Eagles in last season’s finale, can still be supported at 7/2 to win Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta on February 3, while the Chiefs are 23/10 second favourites to win their first Vince Lombardi Trophy since beating the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IV in January 1970.

It is also anticipated that this will be one of the coldest games in NFL history. A winter storm system, with plenty of snow, is expected to descend upon Kansas City, with temperatures at game-time on Sunday forecast to drop to anywhere from -8C to -17C.

Anyone who has ever attempted to catch a football in freezing temperatures knows that you have to be used to grabbing high-velocity rocks, so some may feel the odds-makers might be taking a chance at setting the under/over points-total line at 55.5 total points.

Their reasoning is perhaps the score of their first meeting this season in Foxboro, which resulted in a 43-40 Week 6 Patriots win.

Historically, New England does not have a great record when playing at Kansas City. They have lost seven of their eight trips in the Super Bowl era, but have been favoured in their 12 previous playoff games, which dates back to the 2013 AFC Championship. They were road underdogs against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos and lost that particular game 26-16.

New England head coach Bill Belichick has a 6-2 record against Chiefs’ counterpart Andy Reid, who was 1-4 against Belichick while head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles – including a 24-21 loss to the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX (following the 2004 season) – but is 2-2 as Chiefs head coach, including a divisional round loss in Foxboro in the 2015 season. Reid is also 1-4 in Conference Championship games, which is an irritating itch on his CV.

Belichick has coached 342 games (postseason included) and only seven times have his teams allowed 40 points or more. Three of those instances came at the expense of Reid’s offenses.

PATRIOTS OFFENSE vs CHIEFS DEFENSE

The much-maligned Chiefs’ defense caught something of a break against the Colts. They went into their Divisional Round clash conceding 132.1 yards per game on the ground (ranking 27th of the 32 teams in the league) and a third-worst 19 rushing touchdowns, yet their offense scored quickly and often. So, while they still allowed an eye-popping 6.2 yards a carry on the ground, they forced the Colts to get away from their ground game. Reid’s squad also controlled the clock with long, time-consuming drives.

With two weeks to prepare, defensive coordinator Bob Sutton produced the ideal game-plan and the Chiefs held the Colts to 263 net yards. Furthermore, they allowed no third-down conversions (0/9) against an elite quarterback in Andrew Luck, which is unprecedented. The Chiefs had also conceded 30 passing touchdowns going into the game.

Some may argue this was a one-off. Despite their 12-4 regular-season record, the Chiefs allowed 405.5 yards per game on average, which ranks 31st in the league, as does their pass offense, which conceded 273.4 yards per game.

The Arrowhead Stadium crowd is one of the loudest in the NFL and there was no doubt this was a disrupting factor last weekend, helping to account for the Colts’ awful job in managing third-down situations.

The Patriots boast the fourth-ranked offense in terms of points scored at an average of 27.2 per game, and fifth in total yards at 393.4 yards per game, and while they scored a total of 79 points in their last two games, both of those wins (over the Jets and Chargers) came at home.

It must be remembered that they have largely struggled on the road and posted just 10 points in losses at Detroit, Tennessee and Pittsburgh, none of whom made the playoffs. They also suffered defeats at Jacksonville and Miami, who both ended with losing records. In summary, they went 2-5 on the road against non-playoff teams, and their sole win on the road against a playoff team came against Wild Card losers Chicago.

New England quarterback Tom Brady had a great deal of help from his offensive line, who pushed around the much smaller Chargers’ defensive line last week and running back Sony Michel made his post-season debut a memorable one by rushing for 129 yards and scoring three touchdowns on 24 carries.

Brady picked apart the Chargers’ zone looks, consistently beating them with short, quick throws – mostly to Julian Edelman and James White – that consistently put the ball in his receivers’ hands in space. Indeed, 24 of his 34 competitions went to that pair.

Given the likely conditions, the running game, merely an extension of the Patriots’ short-passing game, will be crucial to the chances of Belichick and Brady reaching a ninth Super Bowl. Michel could be the difference-maker and the Patriots are 16/5 to win between 1-6 points inclusive.

For the Chiefs to advance, their defense needs to apply pressure up front. It is something they have done consistently this season and Brady can get rattled if he cannot get rid of the ball quickly. He was sacked a total of 10 times in the five road losses (from 21 in total), and the Chiefs were tied as league leaders in sacks.

Despite great protection last week, Andrew Luck was sacked three times and the Chiefs had plenty of pressure when they could not get to the Colts’ QB. More of the same is paramount.

CHIEFS OFFENSE vs PATRIOTS DEFENSE

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 23 and Brady is 41. While they may be separated by 17 years in age and over 17 years in NFL experience, they have one thing in common – they are connected in the passing record book. For they are two of the three quarterbacks to throw 50 touchdown passes in a season, Brady in 2007 and Mahomes this term.

Second-year passer Mahomes was sacked the fifth-fewest times (26) in the regular season and leads the No.1 offense, who put up an average of 35.3 points per game and 425.6 yards per game.

He faces a Patriots’ defense that was ranked 22nd against the pass, allowing 264.4 yards per game, and a run defense that was ranked 11th (112.7ypg).

However, Brian Flores, who is in the running to become the new head coach of the Miami Dolphins, helped oversee a unit that allowed only 20.3 points per game (ranking 7th in the NFL) and showed improvement as the season wore on.

This bend-don’t-break defense will be severely tested. Travis Kelce is unlike any player in the league, in that he has a body of a tight end, but the skills of an elite receiver, while Tyreek Hill is a receiver who has speed to burn. He will be a threat in turning short to intermediate passes into big gains.

Yet perhaps the Chiefs’ biggest weapon this weekend will be former Dolphins’ rusher Damien Williams, who rushed for 129 yards at 5.2 yards per pop from 25 carries against the Colts. He also nabbed five catches for another 25 yards.

Chiefs managed to put up 40 points and 446 yards on the road in their first meeting at Foxboro and the Patriots’ defensive numbers dip markedly in road games, where they conceded an average of 398.9 yards and 24 points per game.

Kansas City has managed to vanquish their post-season failings with that win, but the edge of experience is clearly with the Patriots, who are 13/10 to win. The Chiefs are 8/13 on the Moneyline and are as big as 9/2 to win by a margin of 7-12 points inclusive.

How each team handles the icy temperatures and likely slick field conditions is the great unknown for punters, however. For all the AFC Championship odds, click here.

Those seeking educated picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.

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