While Arsenal may have been stymied in each of the last two seasons in their bid to become Premier League champions, the return of the Gunners as a competitive force at the top of English football’s top tier has boosted their chances of future success.

The second-placed finish in 2022/23 was the first time that Arsenal had secured a top-four slot, and with it lucrative UEFA Champions League football, since the 2015/16 Premier League campaign when Leicester City were crowned champions. The following 2016/17 season in the Champions League was, until last season, Arsenal’s final before they entered into the Europa League hinterland.

Europa League football is far less lucrative than the Champions League to the tune of tens of millions. The enormous broadcast deals for European football’s elite knockout club competition, allied with the expanded format which means an extra two games, means that it has never been so valuable.

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The Gunners’ return to the top table couldn’t have come at a more important time, with financial regulation in the Premier League through PSR (Profitability and Sustainability Rules) having become part of the industry vernacular and front and centre when it comes to what clubs can and can’t do in the transfer market.

For some, there is more room to manoeuvre than others. But where do Arsenal fit into the equation, and how does their PSR position look for both the 2023/24 financial year, where the results will be published in the coming weeks, and the current 2024/25 financial year, which for the Gunners runs until the end of May, as it does with Liverpool and Wolverhampton Wanderers, while the rest of the Premier League have a June financial year end?

According to figures presented by football finance expert Swiss Ramble, Arsenal have little to be concerned about when it comes to PSR, either this season or next.

The aim of PSR is, essentially, to ensure financial prudence and that clubs operate within their means in a sustainable manner. Clubs are permitted to lose £105m over a rolling three-year assessment period, with allowable deductions for such things as investment into infrastructure, investment into the academy and the women’s team, and money spent on community initiatives. Losses attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic were also permitted.

As per Swiss Ramble’s estimates, Arsenal could see a £13m pre-tax loss this season, a reduction on the £52m from 2022/23 and the £45m from 2021/22 thanks in no small part to the return of Champions League football.

Allowable deductions for the club were pegged at £41m for 2021/22, £40m for 2022/23, while the prediction is £42m for 2023/24. That means a total of £123m in allowable deductions over the three-year period, with the rolling loss standing at £111m, if the £13m figure is correct.

The net PSR result, after deductions, for 2021/22 was negative £2m, while for 2022/23 it was £12m. The club are predicted to be PSR net positive for 2023/24 at £29m, meaning the three-year net PSR position will be £14m, making an allowable loss for the club for 2023/24 of £119m, meaning that they have plenty of headroom and no PSR concerns.

Assuming the same level of allowable deduction are applied to the current financial year of 2024/25, then the forecast is that Arsenal, for the current reporting period that runs until the end of May, could lose as much £164m before tax and still be able to remain PSR compliant. The club won’t get anywhere near that kind of loss having enjoyed another season in the Champions League, albeit with some additional wage spend and amortisation costs due to transfer activity.

Arsenal are in the strong position of being able to move on targets in January if required, and with the club eyeing a title challenge but also conscious of ensuring that a top four finish is achieved and Champions League football remains at the Emirates Stadium for next season, they will be able to act if they feel it is required. One area that has been a source of much focus is the front line and the need for a prolific striker, with Sporting CP’s Viktor Gyokeres one name linked.

The Gunners are in a healthy position both on and off the field, and at a time when traditional rivals such as Manchester United are faced with more time away from the Champions League, a fate that took Arsenal several years to recover from, the Gunners will be confident of starting to grow revenue streams and close the gap on some of those in the big six who have been able to keep the Gunners at arms length due to revenue growth attributable to regular Champions League football. The tables are very much turning in the favour of the Gunners, which points to a greater chanced of long-term sustainable success.