Arsenal can still win Premier League – here is why
Arsenal’s 2-2 draw with Aston Villa on Saturday left them six points behind league leaders Liverpool, who still have a game in hand on Mikel Arteta’s side. It was a hugely disappointing night for the north Londoners, which resulted in many of their supporters fearing their title challenge is already over.
With almost half a season remaining, though, there are numerous reasons for Arsenal to believe they can still compete with Arne Slot’s team for the Premier League trophy. Here, Telegraph Sport explains why the title race is not quite finished yet.
This injury crisis will pass
Arsenal’s injury list has been a source of concern throughout this season, and is perhaps the most significant reason for their inability to improve on the previous campaign. Right now, the injury crisis is at its most severe: they had seven important players missing from the draw with Villa.
Ben White, Takehiro Tomiyasu, William Saliba, Riccardo Calafiori, Ethan Nwaneri, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus are all currently unavailable because of fitness problems. The attacking injuries are especially debilitating – against Villa, they had three academy players on the bench and only one senior forward.
The good news is that the likes of White, Tomiyasu, Calafiori and Nwaneri are believed to be nearing returns in the next few weeks. Saliba’s injury, meanwhile, was described by Arsenal as “minor” before the game against Villa.
The return of White and Nwaneri, especially, will make a significant difference to Arsenal’s strength in depth. Both players can operate in numerous positions, allowing Arteta to rotate his players and reduce the physical load on those who have been available in recent weeks. Jurrien Timber, for example, has played many more minutes than Arsenal would have wanted after he missed almost all of last season with a knee problem.
Saka’s absence is more long-term (he is likely to be out until March) but he is expected to come back with enough time to make an impact in the final part of this season. Arsenal will hope that he returns energised, refreshed and ready to lead their attack once again.
The January window is open
It could be worse for Arsenal: this injury crisis could have happened at the start of February, after the transfer window had closed. The timing of the Saka and Jesus injuries, especially, has allowed the club to recalibrate their transfer plans and pursue another attacker this month.
It remains to be seen, of course, whether Arsenal’s executives are able to secure the signature of a top forward. This is famously a difficult month in which to do business. But Arsenal have the opportunity, at least, to address their biggest problem. If Saka and Jesus had gone down just a few weeks later in the season, Arsenal would not have had that chance.
A new signing would not only help to fill in some of the gaps in Arteta’s squad, it could also provide the entire fanbase with a powerful emotional and psychological boost.
They are dominating their opponents
Despite their numerous injury issues, Arsenal’s underlying performances have been largely positive in recent months. There have rightly been complaints about their inability to convert their chances in the final third (a problem they hope to address in the transfer market), but the fact remains that Arsenal are dominating their opponents in almost every game.
In 20 of their last 21 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have had a greater expected goals total than their opponents. Defensively they have mostly been solid, restricting five of their last nine Premier League opponents to an expected goals figure of 0.5 or lower.
Currently, it is the small details that are undermining Arsenal’s cause – Thomas Partey’s dreadful marking of Ollie Watkins against Villa, for example, or the Mikel Merino shot that struck the post – rather than the big-picture tactical outlook. Arteta would be more concerned if his injury-ravaged team was struggling to play their usual game.
Indeed, after the draw with Villa he described it as an “immense” team performance by his side, given the circumstances. “Against this team, what they have done after playing three times in six days, with the same players, not having enough [players] to change it, I cannot be prouder of that,” said Arteta.
Related to this, it is worth noting that Arsenal remain incredibly difficult to beat. They have still lost only two league matches all season, the last of which was against Newcastle United in early November. They are unbeaten in 12 league games, which coincides with the return of captain Martin Odegaard to the team.
Away fixtures will become less treacherous
A strange quirk of Arsenal’s season is that they have already played most of their toughest opponents away from home, rather than at the Emirates. Of the current top 12 in the Premier League, Arsenal have played 10 of them away.
Aside from trips to Liverpool and Nottingham Forest, Arteta’s side therefore have a presentable run of away games in the second half of the campaign. Their next two away trips, for example, are against struggling Wolves and Leicester City. Liverpool, by contrast, still have to play six of the current top 10 away from home.
Arsenal’s unbalanced fixture list so far goes some way towards explaining why their form against top-half teams is much worse than against bottom-half teams, as this graphic shows:
Liverpool are not as formidable as prime Manchester City
In the last two title races, Arsenal were defeated by Manchester City teams that produced relentless winning runs in the second half of the campaign. Last season, City won nine of their first 10 matches after Christmas, and then finished the season with another nine-game winning streak. The season before, Pep Guardiola’s team won 12 league games in a row from February to May.
Are Liverpool likely to produce such a run of form? It does not seem that way. In all competitions, Slot’s team have failed to win three of their last five matches. In the Premier League, they have drawn four of their last eight. A six-point gap to peak City would have felt too big for Arsenal to close. With this Liverpool team, there is perhaps not the same fear of a three-month winning streak.