For almost three decades, the Americans have been an ever-present obstacle standing between the Australian women’s basketball team and greatness. At the Atlanta 1996 Olympics, the United States defeated Australia in the semi-finals (the Opals subsequently won their first-ever Olympic bronze). In the gold medal match at Sydney 2000, one of the last events of the home Games for Australia, it was the USA who spoiled the party, with an emphatic 22-point win.

Four years later, in Athens, the gold medal rematch saw the same result – although the Opals reduced the losing margin to 11 points. Another Olympics, another loss to the USA. At the Beijing Games in 2008, the Australians were forced to settle for their third consecutive silver medal, behind the Americans. In London, the teams met in the semi-final: another American victory, the Opals going on to claim bronze. An early exit in Rio spared the Australians yet another encounter with the USA. Normalcy was restored in Tokyo: the nations faced each other in the quarter-finals, and the Americans won resoundingly.

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So when Opals veteran Lauren Jackson was asked about an impending semi-final encounter with the Americans, she offered a wry smile. “We’ve had great tussles with them over the years,” said the basketball legend, in Paris for her fifth Olympics. “Obviously we would have loved to play them in the gold medal match.”

Instead, on Friday, the nations will meet once more at Bercy Arena in the semi-final. The fact the basketball heavyweights are meeting in the penultimate round, and not the gold medal match, is down to Australia: they were defeated by Nigeria in the opening game, meaning the Opals progressed from the pool as the second ranked team. But the team’s rapid improvement since, culminating with a dominant victory over Serbia on Wednesday, has left Australian fans dreaming. Is this the Olympics where the Opals finally slay the American dragon and win gold?

The Australians are not getting ahead of themselves – they have been left heartbroken too many times before. But Jackson, who has played only limited minutes in Paris since returning for her first Games since London 2012, was upbeat. “We’ll see how it goes,” she said, hedging. “This team has an innate belief in themselves and what they’re able to achieve.”

Alanna Smith, one of seven current Opals to play their club basketball in the American WNBA, was more direct. “It’s just a big rivalry, even in the lead-up to the Olympics, I was playing in the US and they were talking shit. “They’ve had a history of winning, but now’s the time we can topple that. It would be sweet to take them down a peg, for sure, but we have to prepare for a fight.”

Smith, 27, is one member of a newer generation of Opals, without the same weight of history when it comes to facing the Americans. 21-year-old Washington Mystics guard Jade Melbourne was immense in the quarter-final against Serbia, while Ezi Magbegor, 24, is a mainstay of the Opals team. With a new young core, and plenty of experienced older players, Australia seem to be hitting form at just the right time.

The USA, too, have been playing superb basketball so far in Paris. They won all three of their pool matches, against Japan, Belgium and Germany, with an overall points difference of plus-58. They had to fight harder in the quarter-final against Nigeria, who had downed Australia earlier in the tournament. But despite Nigeria’s best attempts, the Americans ran out 14 point winners. It is not for nothing that the USA are currently on a seven-Olympics gold medal streak.

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But Jackson, speaking after Australia’s win over Serbia, was undaunted. The team’s elder stateswoman, making a remarkable return to international basketball after retiring years ago, pointed to the new generation – players who emerged since she initially left the sport before the Rio Olympics.

“You’re seeing the Opals getting better every half of basketball,” said the 43-year-old. “The girls are really resilient. It’s a new generation of athletes going through the WNBA, playing big roles in the WNBA, they know how to play against the American team. In my opinion, we’re there with a shot. Absolutely.”

On Friday, the Australians face yet another Olympic encounter with Team USA. For Jackson, and a younger generation of Opals, it is time to defy history.