Manchester City are the masters of proving wrong the old F Scott Fitzgerald chestnut of there being no second acts.

The jazz age writer of The Great Gatsby was talking about American life; Pep Guardiola’s treble-winners are experts at claiming championships by refusing to be defined by early-season setbacks and points deficits and producing unbeaten sequences that make the second part of the campaign their own.

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On 16 December this act was in danger of having to be a tall tale from a Boy’s Own annual as they flew to Saudi Arabia for the Club World Cup after drawing 2-2 with Crystal Palace. It left the champions three points behind Liverpool, having played a game more, and if Jürgen Klopp’s side had taken maximum points before City resumed at Everton on 27 December the gap would have been 12, though City would have played two matches fewer.

You might not have bet against City even then. As Guardiola takes his team to Newcastle for Saturday’s late kick-off they are unbeaten since 6 December in eight outings in all competitions, winning seven, including three from four in the league. Beat Eddie Howe’s side and they will be within two points of Klopp’s men, each having played 20 times.

It is a familiar, ominous pattern. Twice last year, City trailed Arsenal by eight points – on 18 January and April Fools’ Day – but by the final day they had claimed a third consecutive title by four points from the Gunners. What got them there: a 25-match unbeaten sequence in all competitions, kickstarted by a 3-1 victory over Aston Villa on 12 February.

Under Guardiola City have been champions four other times: 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022. Apart from the first triumph when they accumulated a record 100 points and were never more than three behind in a campaign that featured a 22-match unbeaten run that ended with a Champions League reverse against Shakhtar Donetsk on 6 December, each required a response after a stuttering first phase.

Two seasons ago City were five points behind after 10 games. On 6 November a 2-0 win at Manchester United initiated a 12-game streak of league victories that ended after the 1-0 victory over Chelsea on 15 January. From 11 December to 15 February they went unbeaten in 13 games in all competitions. They ended as champions on 93 points, one more than Liverpool.

In 2020-21 the gap to the top was eight points with a game in hand after they had played 12 matches before, from 19 December and a 1-0 victory at Southampton, a 15-game winning league run was compiled. It was part of a 28-match unbeaten stretch in all competitions that dated from 25 November to 7 March, when they went down 2-0 to United, the side they beat into second place with 86 points to 74.

In 2018-19 there were stretches of 16 and 14 matches unbeaten: September to December and February to April. City had been seven points behind at the midway juncture in the league, after the 2-1 loss at Leicester on Boxing Day. By mid-May Guardiola’s men had claimed a second successive title with 98 points to Liverpool’s 97.

So, what next, from mid-January and Saturday’s 20th league game at St James’ Park until the 38th and last, West Ham’s visit, on 19 May? Guardiola, in his shrewd manner, always dismisses any question regarding whether another formidable run could occur by stating that the past offers no guarantees for the future. Yet, just as accumulating trophies is a sweetly addictive habit for City, so is the elixir of refusing to be beaten for months.

Guardiola did not complain about a hamstring problem keeping Kevin De Bruyne out for five months after the opening-day victory at Burnley, but his star playmaker is now back. “What I saw [on Thursday] in training he looks really good and dynamic,” says the manager, whose side are in serious contention despite having missed Erling Haaland for the past five league games because of a foot injury.

Scary for Liverpool and the rest? Portentous, certainly. City may have lost at Newcastle already this season – 1-0 in the Carabao Cup – but Guardiola’s team are fuelled by their chance to do what no other has in the English game: become champions for a fourth consecutive season.

“Right now [it is possible],” Guardiola says. “We have 19 games left so we are five behind with a game in hand. It is obviously difficult. Sir Alex Ferguson [at United] or Arsène Wenger [Arsenal] or José Mourinho [Chelsea] and the other big clubs that made a dynasty similar to what we have done … if they could not have done it, it means it is difficult.

“I don’t know if it is realistic or not but it is far away. I will answer the question when there are six or seven games to go.”

City are re-energised after the Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League sweep of 2022-23. “I was not scared but I didn’t know what was going to happen after winning the treble [and] with no rest,” Guardiola says. “Immediately [to] Japan [for pre-season tour], then the Community Shield, we didn’t have any time.

“The competition helped us to have a spark, to reignite again and that’s why we won two titles already [Uefa Super Cup and Club World Cup] and are there.”

Liverpool may rue not taking advantage of their lead on 16 December. “I was a little afraid that we could be far, far away because I know how Liverpool is back playing unbelievable with their best moments in many years,” Guardiola says.

City, too, appear back in their familiar, relentless groove.