Belgian Grand Prix preview: F1 returns with a Spa weekend

The nights, as they say in Scotland, are fair drawin’ in, the school uniforms are box-fresh and the Christmas adverts have started.

It’s time, then, to settle down for the second half of the F1 season, with a visit to two of the great historic circuits – Spa Francorchamps in Belgium this weekend, and the Italian job at Monza just a few days later.

What’s in store?

More of the same, hopefully

It’s been a good F1 season so far. For those of you with short memories, here are the essentials.

The season kicked off with a Vettel victory in Melbourne (pictured), setting the scene for a proper Ferrari-Mercedes battle throughout 2017. Yay, we all said, before Hamilton hit back immediately with a victory in China.

In Bahrain, a Hamilton pit-lane blooper landed him with a penalty and gifted Vettel victory before – drum roll – the Russian Grand Prix went to one Valtteri Bottas. Alas, Bottas’ maiden win was about the only talking point in a race where you could count the proper overtakes on one finger.

The boredom in Sochi was more than compensated for with an incident-packed Spanish Grand Prix, which saw Raikkonen and Verstappen retire early, Vandoorne torpedo Massa, and Hamilton bump wheels with Vettel on his way to another Mercedes victory.

Round six, in Monaco, was all about Alonso, which was unfortunate as he’d decided to skip F1 for the weekend and play a blinder at the Indy 500 instead. He didn’t miss anything in Monte Carlo, with Vettel taking the chequered flag with a bit of help from his Ferrari bag-carrier Raikkonen.

In Canada, Hamilton was on top form, equalling Ayrton Senna’s pole record (and receiving a Senna helmet from the Brazilian’s family as a result) and going on to dominate the race.

Azerbaijan was the gift that kept on giving. With sundry team-mates colliding, Lance Stroll scoring his first podium, Ricciardo nailing a rare Red Bull win and Bottas battling back from last place to second, it was hard to pick a highlight. Oh, wait a minute… Vettel thumping Hamilton from behind, before pulling alongside him and deliberately bumping wheels under the safety car. Yes, that may have been a talking point.

In Austria, Bottas drove a cracking defensive race to take his second win, form Vettel, as Hamilton spluttered.

Then on to Britain, where all the pre-race headlines were about Hamilton’s decision to skip an F1 display in London, while every other driver turned up to put on a show in the capital. Hamilton got his head down and utterly owned the weekend after that…

Next came Hungary, where Vettel hung on for victory while Hamilton and Bottas traded places deliberately in a show of mutual respect which scored high in sportsmanship terms but cost Hamilton three valuable points in the title race.

Oh, and a spat between Magnussen and Hulkenberg ended with a memorable instruction to the Hulk to ‘…suck my b****’. Those rascally F1 lads, eh?

And so we exit the mid-season break with Vettel 14 points ahead of Hamilton in the Drivers’ Championship, and Mercedes in their usual No.1 slot in the Constructors’ Championship, 39 points ahead of Ferrari.

And Hulkenberg, presumably, feverishly flossing his teeth.

What’s changed?

Not surprisingly, there will be a scattering of car updates brought to Spa, including a tweaked floor and suspension for Ferrari, a lighter MGU-K (kinetic energy recovery system) for Red Bull that is rumoured to be 5kg lighter than the one it replaces, and potentially a new-spec Honda engine for the McLarens.

The circuit itself has only some minor barrier alterations and remains, for many die-hard fans, a shadow of its former self thanks to huge run-off areas.

By modern standards, though, it’s still an epic track, rising, falling and challenging. At just over 7km, it’s the longest in F1 and with one of the most famous complexes in the sport – Eau Rouge and Radillon.

On the driver front, the mid-season break has seen some announcements – Vandoorne is staying at McLaren for 2018, though it’s anyone’s guess who his team-mate will be. And Raikkonen’s (pictured) selfless driving, as Vettel’s No.2, has been rewarded with another one-year contract, so expect him to hone his rear-gunner skills as the season builds to a climax.

Perhaps the biggest change is that Hamilton will have to up his game on the Twitter front if he wants to keep making social media headlines because… well, because Trump, as they say.

Who should I bet on?

The short answer is nobody but there are some clues as to where the advantage might lie.

Spa is a track that should favour the Mercs, its long, lovely curves being made for their longer wheelbase, and its straights rewarding their engine and aero package.

That, of course, is assuming that they can get ahead of the Ferraris early.

As we’ve seen already this season, it’s not always wise to assume Hamilton will be the Merc star, but the same can’t be said of Ferrari, where all efforts are focussed on getting Vettel to the top step of the podium.

However, Raikkonen is a master of Spa-Francorchamps and if he brings his A-game, it could be a chance for him to bloody some noses – at both Merc and Ferrari.

And, of course, there’s the Spa weather to consider. I’ve seen hail on Spa qualifying days and rain is certainly no stranger to the area.

If Red Bull’s new MGU-K is worth two or three tenths of a second a lap, as has been rumoured, and the electronic tweaks to their Renault engines come up trumps, a little rain could throw them right into contention – and Verstappen has a history of audacious manoeuvres at this circuit.

One thing you can bet on is a big crowd, perhaps a quarter of a million people over the weekend thanks in part to Spa’s spiritual draw to F1 fans, in part to its proximity to Germany, the Netherlands and France – all starved of F1 races at the moment – and partly because, in Vandoorne, Belgium has its first F1 driver since Jérôme d’Ambrosio in 2012.

Unbottle a beer, fry up some frites and keep your fingers crossed for a slice of classic Spa.