Bryce Young's benching is more proof first round NFL quarterbacks are a crapshoot

Dave Canales was supposed to turn Bryce Young around. The rising assistant had been key in reviving the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield in coaching stops with the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That put him on the radar of mercurial Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper, who needed someone who could restore the shine to 2023's first overall draft pick.

Through two games, however, no quarterback in the NFL has been worse than Young. That was all Canales and company needed to see. Less than 24 hours after telling reporters young was "our quarterback," Canales reportedly made the switch from Young to 36-year-old journeyman Andy Dalton behind center.

That was a surprising move, but not an unearned one. Since debuting in 2023, Young's -0.211 expected points added (EPA) per dropback ranked 32nd among 33 quarterbacks to play at least 320 snaps. The only player he beat out was Zach Wilson.

In his first two games, Young's EPA/play dipped to -0.514; he cost Carolina a point of expected value every other snap. In a game where he trailed the Los Angeles Chargers 20-0 in the second quarter, the young QB still failed to throw a single pass that traveled more than 12 yards downfield.

That makes Monday's move a little less surprising. But further softening the blow has been how comfortable NFL teams have been to move on from young quarterbacks once thought as potential franchise cornerstones. There's been a rising tide of teams ditching former draftees while they're still on their rookie contracts, slicing sunk costs from the roster in hopes of a fresh start.

With high enough draft status and modest success, many quarterbacks could count on a fourth year of angling for a starting role with the teams that plucked them from the college ranks. Mitch Trubisky, for example, got four years frustrating the Chicago faithful.

That kind of long leash hasn't been extended to more recent Day 1 selections. Between 2018 and 2023, 21 quarterbacks were selected in the first round. Only 11 remain starter for the team that drafted them and one of those is Daniel Jones, whose position is... tenuous. Since 2021 especially we've seen teams more willing to write off a struggling young quarterback and move on:

In the last 3.5 years, two-thirds of the NFL's first round quarterbacks were demoted or dealt by the teams that drafted them. They aren't the only young quarterbacks to feel the heat.

Sam Howell threw a ton of passes for a bad Commanders team in his second season as a pro, then was swept out in a regime change that deposed former coach Ron Rivera. Desmond Ridder couldn't outplay Taylor Heinicke, ending his Atlanta Falcons tenure at two years. Malik Willis was dealt to the Green Bay Packers when the Tennessee Titans decided he was better off elsewhere rather than backing up Will Levis (who could soon wind up on this list).

That doesn't count guys who were unlikely starters and then usurped by veteran signings down the line. Aidan O'Connell gave way to Gardner Minshew in Las Vegas. Bailey Zappe wasn't the caretaker quarterback the Patriots wanted, so they signed Jacoby Brissett. It confirms one thing we already knew; that developing a quarterback is a difficult business. It's forming another hypothesis at the same time; the NFL teams are more interested in a veteran reclamation project than trying to fix their own broken toys.

What does this mean going forward? Well, the good news is Levis may no longer get thrown under the bus by his own head coach after playing doofus-ball in Tennessee because he'll be benched and/or traded. Young, if he stays glued to the sideline, could be swapped for a Day 3 draft pick this spring. Bo Nix may not be part of the Denver Broncos' future if the 24-year-old can't prove his worth over the next 32 games on the team's schedule.

It also means fans may want to wait before buying their first round quarterback's jersey at the pro store. Projecting a stud passer's transition to the NFL remains an imperfect science, but at least teams are getting better at knowing when to cut bait.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Bryce Young's benching is more proof first round NFL quarterbacks are a crapshoot