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What Celtic need to automatically qualify for Champions League last 16 – 7 results that must unfold

What Celtic need to automatically qualify for Champions League last 16 – 7 results that must unfold

It's been a Champions League campaign to remember for Celtic fans as the Hoops roared into the knockouts for the first time since 2012.

Celts have endured a mediocre decade in Europe but Brendan Rodgers has made significant strides to restore the Parkhead club's proud reputation. Aside from that blip in Dortmund, the Glasgow giants have proved they can compete against the elite by racking up a club record points total of 12 from seven matches - booking their place in the playoffs with a game to spare.

Direct qualification into the last 16 isn't entirely out of the question either, but it would require a remarkable set of results for the Scottish champions to somehow sneak into the top eight of the revamped league phase on matchday eight. Here, Record Sport examines what must happen in the final round of fixtures as Celtic head to Villa Park.

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Adam Idah was the match-winning hero against Young Boys
Adam Idah was the match-winning hero against Young Boys -Credit:SNS

Can Celtic qualify for the Champions League last 16?

Mathematically, yes. But it's extremely unlikely. In fact, their chances of reaching the top eight are so slim that they didn’t qualify automatically in any of Opta's supercomputer’s simulations. So, if you like a flutter, don't put your mortgage on Celts finishing outside ninth and 24th.

The Opta supercomputer gives Celtic virtually no chance of finishing in the top eight
The Opta supercomputer gives Celtic virtually no chance of finishing in the top eight -Credit:Opta

What results must unfold?

Let's start with the obvious. It goes without saying that Celtic must beat Aston Villa to stand any chance of leapfrogging the play-offs. As things stand, the Hoops are 18th in the table, a point behind eighth-placed Bayer Leverkusen who have 13, the same tally as Villa, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille and Brest. Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Juventus are all locked on 12 points just like Celtic, but have a better goal difference. With all that in mind, the Scottish champions would have to rely on seven results going in their favour on Wednesday night to somehow sneak into the top eight.

  • Aston Villa (9th) vs Celtic (18th) - Celtic win

  • Inter (4th) vs Monaco (10th) - Inter win

  • Lille (12th) vs Feyenoord (11th) - draw

  • Brest (13th) vs Real Madrid (16th) - draw

  • Dortmund (14th) vs Shakhtar Donetsk (27th) - draw/Dortmund lose

  • Bayern Munich (15th) vs Slovan Bratislava (35th) - draw/Munich lose

  • Juventus (17th) vs Benfica (21st) - draw/Juve lose

How much prize money is at stake?

Record Sport crunched the numbers after Celts beat Young Boys to guarantee their place in the play-offs. The Parkhead side pocketed £15.7million just from qualifying for the revamped league phase and have topped up their prize money with performance-related bonuses.

Wins over Slovan Bratislava, RB Leipzig and Young Boys boosted the coffers by a cool £5.31m, plus draws against Atalanta, Dinamo Zagreb and Club Brugge added another £1.77m to the pot - a total of £7.08m. That means the Glasgow giants are guaranteed at least £22.78m, but that final number will rocket even further as it doesn't take into account ticket sales.

Celtic also know they will be handed a tidy £843k just for reaching the playoffs. But if they qualify for the last 16 either on Wednesday or via the two-legged playoff ties, then they would rake in a whopping £9.3m. The Treble-chasers will also be due another chunky sum from UEFA depending on their final position, which ranges from £3m and £6.51m.

When is the Champions League play-offs draw?

The draw will take place on Friday January 31 at 11am UK time. The playoffs are scheduled for Tuesday February 11 and Wednesday February 12 and the same days the following week - February 18/19. If Celtic make it through, the date for your diaries are Tuesday March 4 and Wednesday March 5 for the first legs, and a week later for the second.