China’s world champion, Ding Liren, 32, and his Indian rival Gukesh Dommaraju, at 18 the youngest ever title challenger, meet for the opening ceremony of their $2.6m 14-game title match in Singapore on Saturday, with the first game scheduled to start at 9am GMT (17.00 local time) on Monday.

This will be the 50th contest for the crown since 1886, and the first where both contestants are Asian. The No 1 player of the time was almost always a participant, but not in 2023 or 2024. Currently Gukesh is No 5 in the rankings, while Ding languishes at No 23. The world champion has not won a single classical game since January. Gukesh is the 1-5 odds-on favourite, while Ding is 10-3 against.

Magnus Carlsen, the game’s dominant player, who was champion for a decade until he abdicated last year, will also be in Singapore, but only as a spectator for the first few games.

Carlsen’s view of the match: “Gukesh is a significant favourite, and if he strikes first he will win without any trouble, However, the longer it goes without a decisive game, the better it is for Ding, because he has the ability but lacks confidence.”

Carlsen, the world No 1, and Fabiano Caruana, the US champion and world No 2, are also competing in Singapore, in a two-game mini-match on 21-22 November of Freestyle Chess, where the piece formation on the back ranks is randomly arranged. Carlsen won the match 1.5-0.5. A five-tournament Freestyle Tour has been announced for 2025, with a $750,000 prize fund for each event.

Carlsen has been comfortable with his decision to jettison his classical title and its required months of preparation every alternate year. He defended it successfully four times, continues to be the best in the world in rapid and blitz, and has a secure place at the pinnacle of chess history alongside or ahead of Garry Kasparov and Bobby Fischer.

The outcome of Ding v Gukesh revolves around whether Ding, who has not played in public since August, can recover some of the strength he had before and up to winning the title. Ding would have been favourite on his pre-pandemic form up to 2019, when he was impeccably solid. His run of 100 games unbeaten in 2017-18 was a record at that time, although it has since been surpassed by Carlsen’s 125. He was also creative and imaginative, as demonstrated in this week’s puzzle.

Earlier, Ding took a law degree at Peking University, but the pandemic affected his chess career badly. He was caught up by prolonged lockdowns in his home city of Wenzhou, and that affected his results when he resumed playing. He took several months away from chess in 2023 due to mental illness, and his lack of form in 2024 has been characterised by hesitancy at critical moments.

When Ding met Gukesh at the Sinquefield Cup in August, he chose 20 Bd3, then sacrificing bishop and rook for perpetual check, rather than the obvious 20 Re1, bringing another piece into the attack and preferred by the computer. In other 2024 games, such hesitancies changed favourable positions into defeats.

Despite the many negative omens, Ding leads his individual head to head against Gukesh in classical games, with two wins, one draw shown above, and no losses. At Wijk aan Zee in January Ding made a minus score, but one of his two victories was against Gukesh.

In a Fide pre-match interview, Ding acknowledged his poor current form, but argued that match and tournament play “are two different things. When one player starts to hit his stride, how the opponent reacts depends on their experience and how they handle the situation at the moment”. Ding was also the underdog in his 2023 title match with Ian Nepomniachtchi, but won in tiebreaks with the help of his second, Hungary’s Richard Rapport, who is likely to be in Ding’s corner again in Singapore.

How does Ding rate his chances? “My current state is neither exceptionally good nor bad, but I’ve definitely moved past the worst moments of the past one and a half years. I know I’ve been playing great chess – I just couldn’t convert some positions. I believe I can turn that round, maybe during the match.”

Gukesh Dommaraju, the son of an ear, nose and throat surgeon and a microbiologist, learned chess at seven and developed into a prodigy. He became a grandmaster at 12 years seven months, the third youngest in history, but there was also a controversial incident at Bangkok 2018 when Nigel Short, two pawns up, forgot to press his clock and Gukesh jumped up to celebrate the flagfall. Gukesh was a very active player in his teens and advanced rapidly. He was the third youngest in history to pass a 2700 rating, the youngest to pass 2750, and could easily reach 2800 during the world championship match.

Gukesh will stick with Grzegorz Gajewski as his chief trainer. The Pole, 39, helped him at last year’s Candidates, where his calm strategy, halving against his main rivals and scoring well against the tail, paid off at the end when he outscored Caruana and Nepomniachtchi by a crucial half point.

Vishy Anand, India’s first world champion, has been Gukesh’s mentor for many years, and would normally be expected to be available for advice during the match, but Anand is also the Fide deputy president, so needs to stay neutral.

Gukesh is confident he can handle the match decisions as they develop. “I’ve played in many high pressure situations,” he said. He is also unconcerned about the time needed for computer preparation, a factor in Carlsen’s abdication.

“It’s a new experience for me. It’s hard work, but I’m enjoying it, so let’s see how things unfold”. He also thinks his age will prove to be an advantage: “I have more energy levels, and it’s easier to stay focused during long tournaments.”

The preliminaries are nearly over: who will win? I expect Gukesh to be cautious in the first few games, then to probe and push hard in the middle of the match. Ding’s 2024 form has been so wretched that it is difficult to see how he can keep his title. A 7.5-4.5 margin for Gukesh looks about right.

Who do Guardian readers think will win? Let us know in the comments box.

3947 1….Ne5+!! If 2 Nxe5 Bf5+ 3 Kh5 Kg8/g7+ 4 Bh6 Ng3 mate. If 2 Kh4 Kg8+! 3 Nxh8 Bxg5 mate.