The conditions in the Ardennes mountains might have suited Max Verstappen with all too familiar rain and mist encircling Spa-Francorchamps, but the world champion nonetheless laid down a formidable marker in qualifying for the Belgian Grand Prix. Quickest by a country mile, the Red Bull driver will need every bit of pace on Sunday if he is to claw back the deficit from a 10-place grid penalty, but it is a comeback that cannot be ruled out.

Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc has pole position at Spa and deserved it with a superb lap where he wrestled something special from what has been a recalcitrant Ferrari in very tricky, wet conditions. Yet for all that, it was entirely eclipsed by Verstappen’s run. He finished with a time of 1min 53.159sec, almost a full six-tenths quicker than Leclerc in second, with Red Bull’s Sergio Pérez in third and Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton in fourth.

Related: Rattled Max Verstappen faces further frustration at Belgian Grand Prix

After a torrid time at the last round in Hungary, where Verstappen was vocal in his displeasure with his ride and his team, friendly equanimity was restored in Belgium. The team knew he would have to take a new engine at some point this season and opted to do so at this round because of the opportunities for passing Spa presents. They have no little confidence in doing so. This is the third time in a row they have taken a penalty in Belgium and having started from 14th in 2022 and sixth last year, Verstappen came back to win both races.

Going into this round, the assumption was that such a comeback would simply not be possible given the pace McLaren and Mercedes have shown in recent meetings. However, with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri in fourth and fifth for McLaren, there is a chance at least Verstappen will be in the mix.

Red Bull brought an adjusted low downforce aero package to Spa, changed from the new high downforce spec they ran with such little success in Hungary and it worked perhaps beyond expectations. Crucially, they have demonstrated real race pace and look to be enormously strong on tyre wear which, in warm, dry conditions on Sunday, will prove to be vital. For all of Leclerc’s heroics, Ferrari and indeed Mercedes will be unlikely to match McLaren or Red Bull.

Verstappen played down his chances after qualifying but was also clearly aware that in the dry he had a shot. “We will see what we can do,” he said. “I am not as confident as the last years round here in coming back to the front. I still see it more as a damage limitation race.

“McLaren’s race pace is very strong, they will quickly challenge for the lead. It depends how I get through lap one. I would be happy if we can match the race pace [of McLaren]. Starting further back, also on different tyres, I don’t know how that is going to work out.”

Those opening laps then will be crucial. If Verstappen can make passes quickly and keep in touch with the leaders, he will have a shot. With a 76-point lead on Norris in the championship, he has no little cushion nonetheless. His teammate Pérez has much more pressure, with his future at Red Bull to be decided over the summer break after this race. He starts from second and anything less than a win might be considered below par given the strength of the Red Bull.

McLaren too must anticipate a strong run, despite not delivering their best in the wet. With a one-two at the last round, both drivers can expect more in the dry and for Norris in particular this is the perfect opportunity to take back a significant number of points from Verstappen. He will be optimistic he can do so, but the race is still wide open, as the world champion will doubtless believe when the visor comes down on Sunday.

George Russell was in seventh for Mercedes, Carlos Sainz in eighth for Ferrari, Fernando Alonso in ninth for Aston Martin and Esteban Ocon in 10th for Alpine.

Lance Stroll suffered a heavy crash in the rain during the final practice session and was sent for a medical check up. The driver was unhurt and his Aston Martin team did well to repair his car for qualifying where he finished in 15th.

Alex Albon was 11th for Williams, Pierre Gasly in 12th for Alpine, Daniel Ricciardo in 13th for RB and Valtteri Bottas in 14th for Sauber. Nico Hülkenberg and Kevin Magnussen were in 16th and 17th for Haas, Logan Sargeant in 19th for Williams and Guanyu Zhou 20th for Sauber.

Yuki Tsunoda was in 18th for RB but will start from the back of the grid after a 60-place grid penalty for having taken a full set of new powerunit components.