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Chelsea Champions League reality laid bare after Southampton as dream top four scenario explained

Champions League trophy
-Credit:Kristian Skeie - UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images


With the Premier League title race appearing to be over and the relegation battle offering very little drama, it's a good job that there is something riding on qualifying for Europe next season. Given that there is a chance nine teams get into the three competitions, more than half of the table are still in the mix.

Liverpool are the champions elect, they're in. Arsenal look likely to join them even though their hopes of winning the league have been dealt one latest disappointing setback.

If Nottingham Forest were to beat Mikel Arteta's men on Wednesday night then the gap to second would be just three points, though, which potentially drags Arsenal back into the dogfight. Should Forest lose then nine teams would be separated by 10 points and everyone from Crystal Palace in 12th to Forest could yet get into the Conference League at least.

Chelsea's 4-0 win over Southampton on Tuesday night has offered hope in a time of darkness for Enzo Maresca. His side remain four points above 10th place - although that is now Aston Villa rather than Fulham, who moved up with a win over Wolves in midweek - but have the boost of playing Leicester City next.

Chelsea can grow their confidence again when taking to Conference League action next week and know that the trip to Arsenal after the international break is not as daunting as previous meetings. One good week can make a big difference to the vibes, optics, and table when things are so condensed.

With Chelsea's rivals playing each other there is an opportunity to create a small gap to those outside of the top four. What Maresca is really looking at is the top four.

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England are expected to earn an extra place in the Champions League next season based on the UEFA coefficients. Chelsea's run in the Conference League as well as group phase success for Arsenal and Liverpool has set them well on their way to another spot.

Manchester City's failure to get into the last-16 via a play-off has not dented the likeliness of securing the fifth entry. Last season it was much closer as the German Bundesliga and Italian Serie A came top of the rankings.

There is a scenario which would see not only seven from England get into the Champions League but also nine qualify for Europe across the board. It is convoluted and unlikely but it is possible.

Should a team outside of the top five win the competition this year - between Arsenal, Liverpool, and the most likely but still unlikely Aston Villa - then they would get in as defending champions. That is six sides.

For a seventh, United or Tottenham would need to win the Europa League. Neither of those sides are likely to finish in the top five either after problematic seasons but are among the favourites in Europe's second-tier. This drops the Europa League space down to eighth, as long as a team below that in the table does not win the FA Cup and therefore qualify via that means.

The Carabao Cup will be won by one of Newcastle United or Liverpool. Both sides will surely finish in the top nine, meaning that in this scenario the Conference League qualification would drop down a place.

Chelsea are not in the mood to get into that tournament again and know that their route into the Europa League has been enhanced. It is the Champions League that they are really looking at, though.

The condensed nature of the table at this stage makes it tough to predict just how things will end. After defeat to Aston Villa it was doom and gloom whilst beating Championship-bound Southampton has changed the picture back. With five points between eight teams and five separated by just three, these narratives will change on a weekly, daily, and sometimes even hourly basis.

There will have to be disappointed sides come the end of it all as well. Chelsea's aim is to ensure they are not one of those and that they do their own business rather than relying on the others slipping up.