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How Chelsea can 'confirm' Conference League qualification vs Brighton with Europa League wait
Nine games ago Chelsea were 10th in the Premier League table. Mauricio Pochettino's side had hardly ventured into the top half, let alone made a challenge for European qualification.
Games in hand slightly skewed things - they could have been ninth and just one point from Newcastle in eighth, five off Manchester United (sixth) - but the feeling was poor, even with a slight uptick in results in the new year. On Wednesday night against Brighton they can all but secure seventh place.
For a team that has committed over £1billion on transfers in the past two years - and who were taken over in May 2022 as the reigning world and European champions, domestic cup finalists in both competitions and third in the league - it may not seem like a huge achievement. To Pochettino it certainly is.
Chelsea finished 12th last year, scoring just 38 goals in the entire season. In 2023/24 they have as many in 18 games at Stamford Bridge alone. They have spent much of this season trailing their rivals, and were 14 behind Tottenham at the start of March.
Win at the Amex Stadium and that gap will be just three points heading into the final day. Spurs have won just one of their last five whereas Chelsea are heading into their trip to the south coast with three victories in a row as well as a draw to Aston Villa. It means that there is still an outside opportunity that they could come fifth.
However, that will have to wait until Sunday to be decided. What won't need to go that far is confirming seventh. A win over the Seagulls will put Chelsea onto 60 points. Manchester United could match that if they were to beat Newcastle (also on Wednesday) and Brighton in their final two games. Chelsea would also need to lose to Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge to finish level in this scenario.
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Due to United's -4 goal difference - comfortably the lowest of any side in the top eight - it would take a swing of 16 across the last two matches for both teams to see the Red Devils climb above Chelsea, should they beat Brighton.
Seventh is also the spot that will be enough for Conference League qualification as long as Erik ten Hag's men fail to win the FA Cup. They face Manchester City in the final later this month and are huge underdogs.
There is also a scenario in which seventh brings Conference League football even if United lift the cup. Should they finish sixth and be victorious at Wembley then the Conference League entry would drop to seventh again.
Chelsea still have eyes on the Europa League though. They are at the mercy of Newcastle somewhat, with Eddie Howe's men holding a better goal difference.
The Magpies are 10 ahead on this metric with a trip to Old Trafford and Brentford to finish. Chelsea would need to hand out two drubbings in their remaining matches to catch up in this sense but will be hopeful of Newcastle dropping points to allow them the chance to finish sixth.
Even that may not be enough to be in the Europa League, though. Should United finish eighth and lift the FA Cup then sixth would only be enough for the Conference League.
Fifth therefore, is the only spot to make absolutely sure of Europa League qualification. Chelsea being in this mix is certainly an improvement on much of their fortunes this season though and having a chance to reach seventh and be pretty secure there in the final week of the campaign will be a boost to Pochettino.
