Today marks the end of the 14-day window for the Premier League’s financial and legal teams to assess the figures for club accounts for the 2023/24 period and determine whether anyone has breached the league’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR).

It is anticipated that clubs will learn this week their fate when it comes to PSR and potential points deductions. The Premier League will look to dish out punishments to any clubs found to be in breach of the £105m PSR threshold, with the process having been amended 18 months ago so as to have issues settled in the same season, with clubs having to submit their accounts by the end of December for assessment.

The aim of PSR is, essentially, to ensure financial prudence and that clubs operate within their means in a sustainable manner. Clubs are permitted to lose £105m over a rolling three-year assessment period, with allowable deductions for such things as investment into infrastructure, investment into the academy and the women’s team, and money spent on community initiatives. Losses attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic were also permitted.

Ever since Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital acquired Chelsea and embarked upon their heavy spending, offset by considerable outgoings and the sales of academy graduates as well as tangible club assets such as hotels, the club have been seemingly in the crosshairs of PSR and having little room for manoeuvre.

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Chelsea have always insisted that they will be compliant with PSR, and that tone has not changed for the period covering 2021/22, 2022/23 and 2023/24. They expect to come in under the threshold and, looking ahead to the final year of PSR rules as they stand, which will include the current financial year of 2024/25, they believe that they have reasons to be bullish over what their future financial prospects look like.

Chelsea made considerable money from the sale of players they produced in the last financial year, such as Conor Gallagher and Ian Maatsen, and those deals were concluded late in the financial year so as to aid the PSR position.

But it is the sale of Chelsea Women to another part of the club’s ownership group, BlueCo 22, that will be what gets the club over the line, with the value of that sale pegged at some £175m. Chelsea had used the valuation of the sale of Olympique Lyonnais’ women’s side in France as a benchmark of what they felt was fair market value.

According to figures presented by football finance expert Swiss Ramble, Chelsea are forecast to make a £13m profit this season as a result. But on the back of loss-making years of £121.4m and £90.1m they still come in at a pre-tax loss of £198m for the three-year assessment period.

Taking into account allowable deductions totalling £114m for the three years, that comes down to a net PSR position of minus £85m, which is £20m under the £105m threshold. If those figures are correct then the club will be well clear of any PSR punishment.

But compliance rests on the club’s sale of the women’s team to a related company being accepted by the Premier League. The club has confidence that it will be, and the Lyon benchmark that had already been set has only served to embolden them on that view.

Looking ahead to what the final three-year cycle might look like before the shift to a squad cost ratio method, Swiss Ramble has Chelsea being able to make a loss of £144m in 2024/25 and still remaining compliant, provided, of course, the sale of assets, effectively to themselves, is given the green light.

Chelsea don’t expect to be on the receiving end of punishment for a PSR breach this week, and with a return to UEFA Champions League football looking a good bet for next season, there will be confidence that the financial gamble that they made in the early years of the Boehly/Clearlake regime could well pay dividends, without the catastrophic consequences that had been predicted by some.