When Brighton were quoting £100million for Evan Ferguson there is an argument to say they weren't quite out of their minds. After all, at the time he was an 18-year-old announcing himself on the Premier League stage. Capped off by a hat-trick against Newcastle United at the start of last season, there was substance behind the hype.

Despite his age, Ferguson carried himself with a unique physicality that saw him compared to Didier Drogba. From a Chelsea perspective, that is pretty enticing.

His rise was absolutely rapid, and Brighton know how to play these things. They are the masters of prizing out big money for excelling young players. Ferguson had gone from being a strong Under-21 option to looking genuinely unplayable at senior level.

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The flame only shone for a brief period, though, and Ferguson couldn't follow his breakthrough campaign up. By the time a knee ligament injury came in April last year he had already gone 15 league appearances without a goal. A bright start had fizzled out.

For someone still so junior in his football journey, it was perhaps no surprise that the Republic of Ireland international was struggling to carry the weight of Roberto De Zerbi's inconsistent Brighton side. His stock was still high, though.

Even in March 2024, just prior to his first serious fitness setback, Ferguson was valued by crowd-sourced football website Transfermarkt at over £50million. That is a far cry from the price Brighton were putting out into the world but still made sense.

Here was one of the best-looking young forwards in the world at a time where the striker market was lacking. Chelsea, yet to really find cover or support for Nicolas Jackson (something that hasn't changed in the 12 months since) were understandably linked. football.london has learned that interest and admiration in Ferguson hasn't gone away.

However, with Brighton actively looking to move him on in some form before Monday's January transfer deadline day, there are red flags. Ferguson's estimated market value has reduced significantly from its early peak in late 2023. It was almost at £60million then, a figure that would surely have been rejected out of hand by the Seagulls.

Chelsea may well have snapped their hands off if a deal at that stage was possible for such a price. Now, off the back of more injury issues - this time to his ankle - Ferguson is not demanding such big talk. Still only 20, football has moved on and left him as yesterday's boy.

His predicted value has only dropped. It is still at a respectable £35million but is nearly half of where it was just a year-and-a-half ago. For Chelsea, it is almost certainly too much to pay for a permanent deal. Whether he would be able to make an impact as a loanee is also questionable.

Despite the drop-off for Ferguson, he is still ranked in the top Under-21 players in the world. His estimated value of just over £55million is more than that of his teammate Carlos Baleba, according to a paper by CIES Football Observatory in November. It is also more than Mathys Tel, who Chelsea have also shown immense interest in this month.

This shows just how highly-rated he really is. Progress is not linear and Ferguson still has a lot of raw materials to develop with. His injury record is scary but may also go hand-in-hand with someone of such strength and size.

For Chelsea, they will see the decision not to go in for him strongly as being vindicated. Now only a cut-price deal makes any sense at all. That doesn't mean there isn't value to be had with Ferguson.