The attendance at this year’s ­Cheltenham festival, which opens on Tuesday, is likely to fall short of last year’s disappointing figure, Ian ­Renton, the track’s managing ­director, said on Monday.

In an interview with Nick Luck on Racing TV, Renton conceded that “we are going to be a few down on last year”, when the attendance dropped by 14% from the four-day record of 280,267 in 2022.

Related: Have we passed peak Cheltenham? Why festival may be losing its shine

Possible reasons offered for last year’s big drop included the cost-of-living crisis and strikes by railway workers and teachers, but the latest decline is a disappointment after ­Renton expressed “total confidence” 12 months ago that the figures would bounce back.

The festival is expected to open on soft ground, while the cross‑country course in the ­middle of the track, which stages the ­Glenfarclas Chase on Wednesday, is easier still and described as heavy, soft in places.

“The track is in good shape and we’re pleased with how it looks,” said Jon Pullin, the clerk of the course. “We faced a few challenges last year with grass cover, but that was on the back of a cold spell throughout the winter.

“It’s been a very different story this year and very wet, which has given us other challenges, but we’re happy with conditions.

“We had 7mm overnight into ­yesterday and a further 4mm throughout the day. We’re forecast to be dry today, but then we have some more showers moving in tomorrow morning before a dry afternoon.”

State Man, the Irish Champion ­Hurdle winner, is the hot ­favourite for the Champion Hurdle, the ­feature race on the opening day, after the  scratching of last year’s ­imperious winner, Constitution Hill, last week.

“He looks a worthy favourite and hopefully he can prove himself to be a proper favourite,” Willie Mullins, State Man’s trainer, said. “He’s been doing everything right, so it would be great if he could win a Champion Hurdle, but nothing is a given when you come over here.”

Horses from Mullins’s stable in County Carlow are expected to dominate at the meeting, when victories in six of the 28 races will make him the first trainer to reach 100 Festival winners.

Mullins is priced up at just 1-10 to be the week’s leading trainer, while Paul Townend, his principal jockey, is 1-3 to take the prize for the meeting’s top jockey.