Derby County are not being outplayed - they are being outgunned
Jamal Lowe hit a last-gasp winner for Sheffield Wednesday as they came from behind to beat Derby County 2-1 at Pride Park.
The Rams were fast out of the blocks and were ahead early on when a lovely move ended with Marcus Harness sliding in a cross for Ebou Adams to put Paul Warne's side ahead. Further chances came as Nathaniel Mendez-Laing saw a shot saved by James Beadle while Craig Forsyth hammered an effort over the bar as Derby oozed control.
Mendez-Laing, playing against his former club, then tried to beat Beadle from distance but ended up shooting straight at him when he could have taken on his marker. The Owls came back into the contest before half-time, but Jacob Widell Zetterstrom was not troubled as Derby searched for a second goal.
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A shot from Mendez-Laing was deflected wide of the post for a corner, but the best chance came when Harness teed up Jerry Yates from close range but he was thwarted by Beadle.
Yates then hit the bar from inside the box from a corner with Adams hooking over the bar. And they were made to pay when Bannan sent a glorious effort into the top corner. That sparked Wednesday into life and Josh Windass slid a shot wide before Jamal Lowe looped a shot onto the net.
Bannan then curled an effort wide before Tom Barkhuizen had appeals for a penalty inside the box. Yates was then denied by a super block from Shea Charles with three minutes remaining. But up popped Jamal Lowe to slide in a winner right at the death to leave the Rams with one win in nine games.
Here are all the talking points from yesterday's game...
Profligacy is punished
Derby's performance warranted a point at the very least, but they can point to two pivotal moments that turned this game in Wednesday's favour. If Jerry Yates converted a gilt-edged chance in the second half to make it 2-0, you sensed there would have been no way back for the visitors, whose fans were growing increasingly restless in the corner of the South Stand.
Yates then hit the bar inside the six-yard box, and it only seemed like a matter of time before that elusive second goal arrived. But when Barry Bannan struck from a distance, Derby's momentum was punctured, the balance of power began to shift and everybody in Pride Park began to fear the worst. Wednesday eventually stole a winner through Jamal Lowe in the 94th minute, which was cue for the fans to stream for the exit gates.
Danny Rohl and his backroom staff celebrated wildly but ultimately Derby's profligacy in front of goal proved decisive. The level of ruthlessness in the Championship has been proven in the last two games in that the four shots on target between Swansea and the Owls resulted in four goals. Annoyingly, Derby had more possession, more shots and had double the number of touches inside the box of 26 compared to Wednesday's 13. Derby are not being outplayed, but they are being outgunned. The forwards must start stepping up to the plate.
The have and the have nots
When Lowe slid in the winner in the 94th minute with the last kick of the game, the irony would not have been lost on Paul Warne. Derby's head coach had spoken to the forward in the summer about a move to Pride Park, but unfortunately, they could not reach an agreement over the finances.
Derby's loss was Wednesday's gain as they moved to sign him from Bournemouth on a free transfer, but of the 13 games he has played at Hillsborough this season, seven of them have been from the substitutes' bench. Had he moved to this neck of the woods, he would have been a guaranteed starter rather than fourth choice at Wednesday, which merely underlines the stark reality of life in the Championship. Even the mid-table sides boast greater strength in depth, particularly in the forward areas.
Derby's changes made them weaker rather than stronger, but we must remember they still carry a large proportion of last season's promotion-winning team. Developing them into a fully blown Championship squad will take time, money and a hell of a lot of patience. It isn't the Derby of old when millions would be thrown at players. Under David Clowes, it is a club that is sensible in its spending and won't make kneejerk decisions.
And while one win in nine is a concern, there have been five draws in that sequence so it's not as if they are the division's whipping boys. But there will be undeniable and justified frustration that they have picked up only one point from their last three home games and as Warne said afterwards, they can't keep saying they are unlucky. The absence of Ryan Nyambe and David Ozoh has been acutely felt and the latter's return to midfield is crucial especially ahead of a December run of fixtures that reads like a Stephen King novel.
But the game did not tell us anything that we didn't already know in that this team will give you everything but it just lacks that extra sprinkle of quality in the most vital area of the pitch. It was always going to be a hard season and while Derby are making a fist of it despite having spent modestly in the transfer market compared to some of their rivals, a bit of help in January would certainly be most welcome.
Adams suspension is a huge blow
Ebou Adams might lack some technical prowess in his ability on the ball, but his tenacity, coupled with his aggression, makes him such an important part of Derby's midfield. He produced another all-action performance in the heart of midfield, but when you play on the edge as he does, you are at risk of a yellow card although the one he received here was soft.
It means he will miss the game against Leeds next week, and a tough test against one of the promotion chasers just became a lot harder. It will be fascinating to see how Warne will manage his absence. It's highly unlikely Ozoh will be risked, given he has not even returned to full training and a midfield of Ben Osborn, Liam Thompson and Kenzo Goudmijn is not particularly blessed with physical presence either.
Cashin excels
While the headline writers focused on Lowe's last-minute winner, there were some good performances across the 90 minutes. Ben Osborn was excellent until he started to tire and was happy to collect the ball off the back four to get Derby moving in the first half. Liam Thompson ran himself into the ground and looked just about spent which led to his substitution.
But Eiran Cashin's performance trumped the lot with another excellent performance in the heart of the defence. His switch of play was very good and he defended with his usual concoction of intelligence and aggression. He could have been helped out for Bannan's goal because Jacob Widell Zetterstrom should have given him a shout. But he is playing well at the minute and Derby are going to need him to continue his current form in what is going to be a very hard December.