Derby County's Premier League record could finally be broken - here's how Southampton could do it
The dream is still alive for Derby County fans. There's a very real chance that, finally, their club's record of having the worst season in Premier League history with 11 points could be beaten.
We have been here before with near-misses. Sheffield United scraped 16 last season while Huddersfield Town managed the same amount of points in 2018/19 and Aston Villa accrued a measly 17 in 2015/16.
However, this time it feels different. On just six points from 21 games, Southampton are tracking at 0.28 points a game so far this campaign and are currently on a four-game losing streak.
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They were beaten 3-1 by Manchester United on Thursday night, in a game they actually played very well in. They were unfortunate not to get a positive result from a performance that had Paul Scholes lavishing praise on Ivan Juric's men after the game.
Derby, meanwhile, managed seven points after their first 21 games in 2007/08 partly thanks to the generous Newcastle United, who helped the Rams out with four points of their total of 11 after a 1-0 win at Pride Park and 1-1 draw in the return fixture at St. James' Park..
Rams fans will certainly take no pleasure from seeing Southampton do so badly, but it will be a welcome day when the club's 'worst team in history' tag - an unfair one given the record in total is from one season in the top flight out of over 60 in the club's top tier history - is gone. Despite the regular pastings, particularly at home, some Rams fans do look back on their season in the top tier with one or two good memories especially given the superb home backing right to the final game which saw the club's supporters given its player of the year award.
The fact that, 17 years on, the record could be broken is also not a good look for the Premier League either. The chasm between the Championship and top flight is widening but that is a conversation for another day.
So how likely is it that Southampton will pick up the five points needed to equal the Rams' record and the extra one to beat it? Statisticians Opta have given Saints a 6.9 per cent chance out of 100 to climb off the bottom of the table and reach Leicester City in 19th. The Foxes are currently on 14 points.
Given Saints' points-per-game average, that would take them to 10 or 11 points if they continue this trend. A change in manager has not had the desired effect.
Since Russell Martin was jettisoned and Juric replaced him, Saints have drawn one game - his first in charge - and lost the next four in the Premier League. If you take the last six games, which is usually used as a barometer for a club's form, it's one point from a possible 18 on offer from Southampton.
Should Southampton continue their current run of form, they would end up on less than ten points - but there are a couple of reasons why they might exceed that. Firstly, the January transfer window offers Southampton a chance to strengthen their ranks, though they could decide to wait until the summer to properly assess their squad given relegation is practically certain.
There is also a chance they could improve and look to carry a winning mentality with them into the Championship ahead of another promotion push and, once relegated, actually see their results improve as they start to play teams whose seasons are also done and dusted toward the end of the campaign. For now, Derby supporters will be watching Southampton's every move and keeping their fingers crossed the record becomes theirs.