In evaluating any athlete, team or coach, the danger is always in drawing broad conclusions from results determined by the width of a toe or a bit of luck.

So many crucial moments in the history of the USWNT could have gone the other way. Kristine Lilly clearing a goalbound shot in extra time of the 1999 World Cup. Carli Lloyd’s long-range shot in 2008, which many goalkeepers would have saved. Questionable penalty kicks all through the 2019 World Cup knockout rounds.

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All of these moments helped the “99ers,” Lloyd, coach Pia Sundhage and set-piece specialist Megan Rapinoe build their legacies in US women’s soccer.

Conversely, if Lina Hurtig’s penalty in the 2023 World Cup had been one or two millimeters closer to the goalline, today we might be hailing the continued success of the US women’s soccer team under coach Vlatko Andonovski.

And if Mallory Swanson had been a couple of inches closer to the goalline when Korbin Albert passed the ball into space for her in the 2024 Olympic final, the Emma Hayes era might not have started so brightly.

Hayes is rightly recognized as a brilliant soccer mind. But if Swanson hadn’t scored against Brazil last week to clinch gold for the US, or if Alyssa Naeher hadn’t launched herself into consideration alongside Scurry and Hope Solo as the best US goalkeeper ever with a pair of extraordinary saves, Hayes would have faced a series of difficult questions.

Why was playmaking midfielder Rose Lavelle not inserted into the final to re-caffeinate the “Triple Espresso” frontline of Swanson, Sophia Smith and Trinity Rodman? Why leave Jaedyn Shaw on the active roster if Hayes had no intention of playing her? If Shaw was still unfit, Hayes could have kept alternate Croix Bethune available.

Why did Hayes wait until the 74th minute of the Olympic final to make any changes with her tired squad, most of whom had played most of the minutes in two extra-time knockout games, clinging to a 1-0 lead? Why were struggling defenders Tierna Davidson and Crystal Dunn left on the field for so long, trying to push themselves to keep up with the overwhelming Brazil attack?

But, thanks to Swanson, Albert and Naeher, the questions are a bit different. And they paint Hayes in a more positive light.

How did Hayes make the right adjustments at half-time of the final after Brazil nearly ran the US off the field in the first 45 minutes? How did Hayes get the Smith-Swanson-Rodman line to click as they did? How did Hayes pick the right players in the most open competition for places the US women have had in decades?

How did Hayes get buy-in to keep Korbin Albert on the squad after the young midfielder shared anti-LGBTQ+ posts on social media, earning rebukes from Rapinoe and US fans alike? How did Hayes change the mentality of a team that barely scored against quality opposition a year ago in the World Cup?

Perhaps we can answer the latter two ourselves – Hayes is one of the few coaches in the world who has the gravitas to manage the oft-unmanageable egos on the US women’s soccer team. US Soccer denied the allegations that a player mutiny got coach Tom Sermanni fired in 2014, but it’s been clear for years that the players had the power, not the coach.

The Albert revelations could have blown up the team. It’s happened before: Jaelene Daniels’ career never recovered from her decision to double down on her refusal to wear rainbow-themed jerseys or otherwise accept anti-discrimination efforts.

Hayes got out in front of the situation, offering what Albert called “tough love.” We’ll never know whether that means Hayes sternly told Albert to keep divisive sentiments to herself or sat her down with some theology professors to argue against her interpretation of the Bible. (Albert played college soccer at Notre Dame, a Catholic university that has a complicated but not entirely exclusionary relationship with its LGBTQ+ students.)

Or perhaps Hayes has simply informed her team that a national soccer team is not a collection of best friends who agree on everything. Nor are places on the national team akin to tenured faculty positions or US supreme court appointments, relinquished only when the player agrees.

Hayes knows that a national soccer team has constant competition for places, something that has been made easier now that US Soccer’s collective bargaining agreements no longer place core players on annual salaries, and a point that was driven home when the US women left for France without the out-of-form Alex Morgan. The old days of a Rapinoe or an Abby Wambach remaining on the national team indefinitely are well and truly over.

Related: Hayes courts disaster but leaves instant mark with US Olympic football gold | Jonathan Liew

So perhaps career-defining moments are tinged with a touch of good fortune. But the old axiom that we make our own luck applies here.

Hayes had the tactical acumen and the player-management skills to have Albert and Swanson on the roster, on the field, in the right places and in the right system to make the play that won the US women the gold medal. Without such acumen and skills, does that play ever happen in any real or alternate timeline?

The US women’s place atop the soccer world has been usurped in the past 10 years by countries that have done a better job of developing young talent. The chaotic and expensive youth soccer landscape in the USA has not been conducive to helping the country’s national teams at youth or senior level win trophies. But the NWSL is getting better at identifying and signing top talent earlier – Swanson and Rodman each briefly attended college but turned professional before playing an official game, Shaw made her pro debut at age 17, and the league has rapidly filled up with teenage players ever since courts ruled that the then 15-year-old Olivia Moultrie had the right to sign with the Portland Thorns in 2021. Some players, like Albert, opted for European contracts.

Suddenly, the US talent pool looks a lot deeper. Moultrie has two goals in four US national team appearances. Lily Yohannes scored on her national team debut in June at age 16, though she could still end up switching her allegiance to the Netherlands. Bethune is 23, Albert is 20, and Shaw is 19. Eight of the 21 players on the US squad for the upcoming Under-20 World Cup are already professionals.

And they have a coach who has already proven adept at making the right roster calls and making the most of them.