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Enable can break Breeders' Cup spell
Enable will bid to buck the weight of history as John Gosden’s brilliant dual Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner runs in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf at Churchill Downs tonight.
The four-year-old daughter of Nathaniel is odds-on with most firms to record an eighth successive victory under Frankie Dettori as she faces 12 rivals including Arc fourth Waldgeist.
No horse has won the Turf having landed the Arc, so has her Longchamp success taken too much out of her?
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We take a look each of the nine Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup races on Saturday, highlighting some of the main protagonists at Churchill Downs, with odds are supplied by our friends at GentingBet. Odds are subject to change and were correct at the time of writing…
4.00pm BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT – 7f
Marley’s Freedom (6/4) has won her last four starts, the last three since joining Bob Baffert, and they include the Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga in August over this trip (Finley’sluckycharm [8/1] 8l behind). She does have a tough draw in stall 13 (of 14), but rates a worthy favourite.
Selcourt (4/1) has also won her last three for John Sadler and all her six starts have come at Santa Anita, so this is new territory. She has also not run in Grade 1 company before, but her last two wins have come in lesser Graded races, and she had Marley’s Freedom behind in the Grade 2 Santa Monica on her last run in March. She has fitness to prove and an awkward stall-one draw to overcome.
Golden Mischief (12/1) steps up in trip, having narrowly beaten the re-opposing Chalon (22/1) over 6f at Keeneland and could be an each-way possible if lasting home, while last year’s fourth, Skye Diamonds (16/1), may also be worthy of note, having scored in a Grade 3 last time, beating Anonymity (20/1), who is also among the 14-strong field.
4.38 BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT – 5f 110y
The Karl Burke-trained Havana Grey (10/1) and the Aidan O’Brien-trained Lost Treasure (11/1) represent a modest European team.
Lost Treasure beat Havana Grey when fifth in the Prix de l’Abbaye last month, avenging a defeat by that rival in the Group 1 Flying Five at the Curragh.
The first four home last year are back for more in a strong renewal and Turf Sprint champion Stormy Liberal (5/1) has won three on the bounce, latterly taking the Eddie D Stakes at Santa Anita in September to make it five wins (and four seconds) from 12 career starts for trainer Peter Miller. He beat last year’s runner-up Richard’s Boy (16/1) at Del Mar in August, so remains in fine form, and may have more to fear from stablemate Conquest Tsunami (10/1), who ran him close at Santa Anita.
Disco Partner (9/2) and Bucchero (12/1) were third and fourth respectively last year, and the former was a little unlucky in not getting a clear run. Christophe Clement’s runner signalled his good form with a comfortable success at Belmont last month and could be a major player again.
The John Servis-trained World Of Trouble (9/2) is progressive and won a Grade 2 over 7f last time, so while talented, there are questions about this drop back in trip.
5.16 BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE – 1m
Catalina Cruiser (5/4) comes into this as a warm favourite, having won his first four starts for John Sadler, including a cosy success in the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Stakes at Del Mar over 7f. The draw (stall 10) is a little concerning, as is the opposition, for he has never faced such talent before.
City Of Light (10/3) is a dual Grade 1 winner over 7f but gets this mile well, and while beaten last time, he did not have the best route behind Whitmore in the Forego Stakes at Saratoga. He rates a threat and will be staying on late. It is also worth noting that he has a verdict over Breeders’ Cup Classic favourite Accelerate on his CV, having defeated him at Oaklawn in April (a reverse subsequently avenged).
Firenze Fire (7/1) won a couple of Grade 3 races earlier this year and beat the re-opposing Seven Trumpets (22/1) on both occasions, while Seeking The Soul (7/1) looked decent in beating last year’s third Awesome Slew in the Grade 3 Ack Ack over course and distance last time, and appears to hold each-way claims.
6.04 BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF – 1m3f
This could be one for the Europeans, as Wild Illusion (7/4) (Charlie Appleby), Magic Wand (8/1) and Athena (28/1) (Aidan O’Brien), Eziyra (7/1) (Dermot Weld) and Princess Yaiza (18/1) (Gavin Cromwell) take on the best of the American turf females.
Whueida won this for Appleby last year and Wild Illusion, who reversed earlier form with Magic Wand in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot when scoring in the Prix de l’Opera over 1m2f at Longchamp last month, sets the standard.
Chad Brown has won this race three times in the last six years and Sistercharlie (7/2) has leading claims on her easy win in the Beverley D at Arlington in August, where she gave 5lb to Athena. That was her third top-level success this year and a similar level of form should put her right in the mix.
Brown has five runners, and both Raving Beauty (14/1) and Fourstar Crook (10/1)– who scored a sixth win in 10 starts in the Flower Bowl at Belmont last time – are both Grade 1 winners and cannot be dismissed lightly.
6.46 BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT – 6f
There is not a lot of strength in depth and most have locked horns before, so the form lines are strong. Roy H (9/4) bids to retain his crown, having held Imperial Hint (7/4) by a length last year and he signaled his good form when scoring in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes four weeks ago.
Peter Miller’s six-year-old is entitled to come on a bit for that run, too, as it was his first since July.
Imperial Hint has won three on the trot for Luis Carvajal Jr, the last two at the highest level. He won with a bit to spare in the Vosburgh at Belmont, too, so looks the one to beat.
Three-year-old Promises Fulfilled (5/1) had Whitmore (8/1) a head behind at Keeneland and may make the weight allowance count again if getting a decent start from stall two.
You cannot rule out Limousine Liberal (17/2), who always goes well at this track (six wins from eight) and Ben Colebrook’s representative was better than the bare form when not getting a clear run behind Promises Fulfilled last time.
This looks among the most likely to go to a European raider. Ryan Moore sticks with the O’Brien-trained Gustav Klimt (5/1), who was not beaten far by the William Haggas-trained One Master (9/1) in the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp last month. O’Brien also saddled Happily (7/1), I Can Fly (7/1) and Clemmie (20/1).
Expert Eye did not get a clear run at Longchamp in September but still finished third in the Prix Moulin, ahead of Lightning Spear (14/1), and Sir Michael Stoute’s first string (he also runs Mustashry [20/1]) should relish this stiff mile.
Oscar Performance (11/2), winner of the Woodbine Mile in September, has a better draw in stall five than Gustav Klimt, but was last of 10 on his sole run at this track and is opposed on that.
8.16 BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF – 1m 1f
With no European interest, on paper this looks a two-horse race between the Brad Cox-trained Monomoy Girl (85/40) and Bob Baffert’s Abel Tasman (11/4). The former was on a six-timer when ‘winning’ the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes at Parx in Philadelphia, only to be disqualified for failing to keep a straight line. Aside from that, she had sailed to five consecutive top-level wins following a debut second.
Abel Tasman, a runner-up in this last year, did not look in the same form when last of five in the Grade 1 Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita last time and is better than that bare form.
The Chad Brown-trained Wow Cat (10/1), with six wins from eight starts, scooted home in a Grade 1 at Belmont early last month, and while has a bit to find with Abel Tasman on their run in the Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga in August, appears to be still on the upgrade and holds each-way claims.
8.56 Breeders’ Cup Turf – 1m4f
Dual Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Enable (8/13) looks difficult to oppose in the last turf race on the card. However, she would be the first Arc winner to follow up in this race, so the weight of history is against John Gosden’s brilliant filly.
Last year’s winner, Talismanic (14/1), was well beaten in the Arc and was runner-up to the Andre Fabre-trained stablemate Waldgeist (6/1) before that. The latter, who was fourth in the Arc, rates the biggest danger and may well turn the tables on Enable, who is fresher, having only had two runs this season.
Magical (11/2) represents Aidan O’Brien. She took the Grade 1 British Champions Fillies’ and Mares’ Stakes at Ascot following her below-par 10th of 19 in the Arc, so has a plenty to find with the favourite.
9.44 Breeders’ Cup Classic – 1m2f
Back in 2000, it was Giant’s Causeway who came the closest to winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic for Europe at Churchill Downs, going down narrowly to Tiznow. Raven’s Pass, of course, landed the Classic for John Gosden a decade ago at Santa Anita, but this race has always been notoriously hard to win for those from across the pond.
Three will take their chance this time and Gosden’s Roaring Lion (10/1), who took his fourth consecutive Group 1 when landing the QEII at Ascot last time, is the best of them on paper. Yet this is on dirt, rather than turf, and Godolphin colt Thunder Snow (14/1) and Ballydoyle runner Mendelssohn (17/2) have form on dirt, having filled the placed behind Discreet Lover (40/1) at Belmont last time.
Mind Your Biscuits (14/1) and Catholic Boy (6/1) both have verdicts over Mendelssohn, with the latter easily landing the Travers at Saratoga in August.
Accelerate (4/1) has won five of six starts over 1m1f to 1m2f this year, including four Grade 1s in California, latterly handing a two-and-a-quarter length beating to West Coast (13/2) in the Awesome Again Stakes at Saratoga in September. He had to creep into the race form a poor draw and similar tactics may have to be employed again. That is not a major concern, given the long, sweeping bends at Churchill Downs.
Bob Baffert, who won this with Bayern (2014), American Pharoah (2015) and Arrogate (2016), saddles Mckinzie (5/1), who has been steadily improving and took the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby last time. He looks a shade inexperienced though, and stablemate West Coast possibly needed the run behind Accelerate at Santa Anita, given that this was a first run since March. He has been laid out for this race and West Coast could be the each-way value in the race.
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