England v All Blacks: Where the match will be won or lost – our experts make their predictions

The autumn internationals kick off at Twickenham with a blockbuster bout against the All Blacks. A true Test for any major rugby nation, this first fixture will show us what this England team is capable of.

Below our team of rugby writers tell us what they think is going to happen on Saturday, and at the bottom Charlie Morgan analyses where the match will be won and lost.

England 31 New Zealand 28

Dry conditions are forecast, so we should have a fast-paced and action-packed rendezvous between these teams. I believe England will miss Ollie Chessum and am surprised that they overlooked Sam Underhill, but six forwards to supplement George Ford on their bench should allow them to finish strongly. Engage the crowd and they should edge through to begin the autumn with a win.

England 22 New Zealand 29

On the Telegraph Rugby Podcast this week I backed England but having now seen the two announced teams I am regretfully, shamefully, back-tracking. I have bottled it. I maintain, as I outlined on the podcast, that the match will be tight and of high quality, but this All Blacks side will have too much of a game-breaking X-factor for England. In context, too, losing narrowly to New Zealand is no shame – but a response will be vital with Australia and South Africa, the world champions, around the corner.

England 18 New Zealand 23

I was more confident in England’s chances before the team announcements. Even in the absence of Ethan de Groot, I fear for an England scrum that suffered on the tour to New Zealand. While I understand Steve Borthwick’s logic of 6-2, it is a risk with question marks over the fitness of Henry Slade and Ford and I don’t think England’s loose forwards are quite ‘Bomb Squad’ material.

England 28 New Zealand 25

The memory of 2012, the last time England vanquished New Zealand on home soil, should be the reference point at Twickenham this time. What a tonic that day was: a wild crowd, a human cannonball in Manu Tuilagi, and a barely believable 38-21 scoreline. Given the All Blacks’ recent struggles, Borthwick’s players should be targeting a similarly electrifying performance, knowing that their raw pace off the wings in Tommy Freeman and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso can propel them to a fast start.

England 27 New Zealand 31

The significant questions around England’s ability to close out tight Test matches need answering, and maybe that happens on Saturday with a 6-2 split and Ford back. But, they have not defeated the All Blacks at home since 2012 and New Zealand are settling under Scott Robertson. They can find a way past England’s rush defence, while Will Jordan is now back and a huge threat.

Where England v New Zealand will be won and lost

Anglo-Kiwi clashes tend to happen in clusters. The teams met five times in the space of less than 12 months between 2013 and 2014 while Stuart Lancaster was in charge of England. They then shared just three further meetings over the ensuing decade. Saturday at Twickenham marks a third contest since July, and an opportunity for the hosts to avenge their 2-0 series loss in New Zealand.

The hope is that familiarity inspires a fierce, compelling match. This is where it will be decided.

Propping order

England conceded four scrum penalties across the two-Test series in New Zealand earlier this year and there was a certain symmetry to those set-backs. The tourists were collared once in the opening 10 minutes of each game, and then once again in the last 10 minutes. The fourth and final one occurred when the All Blacks ploughed through Bevan Rodd on an England put-in. New Zealand kicked to the corner, earned another penalty from the subsequent line-out and kicked three points for a 24-17 lead they did not relinquish.

Both teams are missing exceptional scrummaging looseheads, with Ethan de Groot out because of a disciplinary issue and Joe Marler withdrawing due to personal reasons. Steve Borthwick has Ellis Genge fit again and Fin Baxter has proven himself as an able deputy. On the tighthead side, Will Stuart starts with veteran Dan Cole among the replacements.

Scott Robertson has deployed serious size. The 24-year-old Tamaiti Williams wears No 1, with Pasilio Tosi selected as the reserve tighthead to back up Tyrel Lomax.

Williams and Tosi are both listed at 140kg (22st) on the All Blacks website. Other sources have them four or five kilograms heavier. Whatever the scales show, England will need to withstand set-piece pressure to avoid bleeding penalties – especially with a relatively light lock in Nick Isiekwe on the bench and George Martin potentially undercooked.

Breakdown battle for quick ball

Picking a six-two split of forwards on the bench for the first time in his tenure as head coach, and backing Ben Earl to cover centre in case of back-line injuries, Steve Borthwick is evidently aiming to fix England’s flat finishes in New Zealand four months ago. They did not score a point in the last half-hour of either Test; a bug that the All Blacks subsequently caught for the Rugby Championship.

Harry Randall is an energiser and Borthwick has brought back George Ford, one of several players to have recovered from ailments, to steward the final stages. However, it is the selection of Ben Curry and Alex Dombrandt among the replacements that hints at the importance of the breakdown.

New Zealand were cuter around the tackle when these teams last came together, consistently slowing England’s ruck-speed – though not conspicuously enough to draw the wrath of the officials. Part of Ben Spencer’s remit on his first start at scrum-half will be to highlight any skulduggery to Angus Gardner.

As for the All Blacks back row, Wallace Sititi is deployed at blindside flanker. The 22-year-old made his Test debut against Fiji, the week after England were beaten at Eden Park, and has looked fantastic. Watch out for his acceleration and balance when the game breaks up. Shannon Frizell was a hard-hitting facilitator for New Zealand in 2023. A year later, Sititi could surge into the reckoning for the World Rugby breakthrough player of the year from the same position.

Where is Will Jordan?

Three decisions stick out from New Zealand’s back-line selection. Robertson has overlooked the wily TJ Perenara to team up the youthful pair of Cortez Ratima and Cam Roigard as their scrum-halves, the latter having overcome a devastating knee injury. Roigard punctuated the win over Japan, his first All Blacks appearance since last year’s World Cup, with an eye-catching try.

Beauden Barrett, who tormented England from the bench in July, starts at fly-half. The 33-year-old wore 10 against Australia at the end of September, but had last done so for the All Blacks in November 2022 at Murrayfield prior to that. And then there is Will Jordan, preferred at full-back in a back three also featuring Caleb Clarke and Mark Tele’a.

In a quirk of scheduling and injury lay-offs, this will be Jordan’s first outing against England. His overall record stands at 35 tries from 37 Tests, reflecting his intuitive support play and athleticism. Jordan often tends to appear out of nowhere, gliding over the ground and through gaps, particularly from a second wave of phase attack.

His second score against Argentina at Eden Park in August, when he arced around Jordie Barrett to receive a pass that was pulled behind Rieko Ioane, was a trademark effort.

There are two parts to England’s aggressive defence: an initial press and then a scramble if they are outflanked. Jordan makes both more difficult. Henry Slade, having been passed fit to continue as a defensive leader, will be on the lookout for him as he marshals the England line.

Kicking strategy

With officials scrutinising ‘escorting’ more closely, back-field defenders will receive an aerial examination because there should be more scope to challenge contestable high balls. All four starting wings – Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, Tommy Freeman, Clarke and Tele’a – are very strong coming forward. It goes without saying that the All Blacks tend to gorge on aimless kicking when the chase is disjointed or understaffed. George Furbank and Marcus Smith add another dimension to England’s kick-return as well.

In July, neither team were particularly convincing on their own line-out throw. Ollie Chessum’s injury means that Chandler Cunningham-South stays at blindside flanker for England, with Tom Curry coming in at openside and perhaps offering himself as a supplementary jumper. Watch out for whether the sides kick ‘long and on’ to keep the ball in play or head to touch and bid to derail their opponents’ platform. Should England be afforded chances to strike from line-outs, we will probably see Ollie Lawrence shifted to the outside centre channel with Ellis Genge and Ben Earl among the forwards loading midfield.