English clubs are set to clinch a fifth Champions League spot next season, with Uefa analysis suggesting a 90% chance that the Premier League takes an extra place ahead of the Bundesliga.

An expanded Champions League format from 2024 means two places are to be given to sides from countries who have performed the best in Europe over the previous season. Uefa’s coefficient table has Italy top, with Germany narrowly ahead of England in second place. But West Ham’s emphatic victory over Freiburg may well prove decisive in tipping the scales in England’s favour.

Before the quarter-final stages of Uefa’s three club tournaments, England is the equivalent of a single draw behind Germany in the coefficient table, calculated according to points awarded for performance and divided by the number of sides who started the season in competition. England began with eight teams and Germany seven, but after West Ham’s passage at Freiburg’s expense, Germany have three teams in quarter-finals while England have five.

The coefficient system awards a team two points for a win, one for a draw and, in the Champions League and Europa League, one point for passing each round from the last 16 (the Conference League affords an extra point only after the semi-finals). As it stands, according to Uefa, English clubs would need only earn a point more than the total accrued by German sides in the quarter-finals to take second place in the coefficient table.

After overseeing a commanding 5-0 victory over Freiburg on Thursday, David Moyes has increased the odds of his West Ham side returning to Europe next season, with eighth place in the Premier League table likely to secure a European spot. It also means Aston Villa and Tottenham have a high chance of making the Champions League, and even Manchester United – in sixth place – retain hopes of returning to Europe’s top table.

The battle for a coefficient spot will be a recurring feature of Uefa’s new competition format, with all three tournaments expanding to a 36-team league stage from next season, where progress to the last 16 is determined by performance in a unified league table. If England has eight teams in Europe for a second season, it will have a greater chance of accruing a competitive coefficient total again, and the possibility of creating a virtuous cycle.