Erik ten Hag’s future at Manchester United is expected to be decided in the next fortnight, with the chances of the Dutchman keeping his job thought to be 50-50. United’s plan is to decide the manager’s fate after the FA Cup final on 25 May, when they face Manchester City at Wembley. It is understood his chances of remaining in the post are finely balanced.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the minority owner who now controls United’s football policy, his key lieutenant, Sir Dave Brailsford, Jean Claude-Blanc, the acting chief executive, and the technical director, Jason Wilcox, are leading the assessment of Ten Hag.

Related: Manchester United ponder move for Kieran McKenna if Ten Hag departs

If Ten Hag can lead United to victory over City and claim a trophy for a second consecutive season, this would no doubt aid his case, particularly as it would come at the end of a troubled campaign bedevilled by serial injuries and off-field issues.

Ten Hag has a year remaining on his contract and, should it be decided to replace him in the summer, the list of candidates who may replace him includes Ipswich’s Kieran McKenna, Brentford’s Thomas Frank, Thomas Tuchel, who is leaving Bayern Munich at the end of the season, Graham Potter, who is out of work, and the England manager, Gareth Southgate.

Ten Hag is under scrutiny for a campaign in which United find themselves in eighth on 54 points before hosting Newcastle on Wednesday. They face Brighton at the Amex Stadium in the final round of Premier League games on Sunday.

United may well have to win the FA Cup in order to qualify for Europe next season and Ten Hag accepted after Sunday’s 1-0 loss to Arsenal that having no European football next season would be “very damaging”.