Erik ten Hag is out of excuses – Manchester United are just a mid-table team

The last rites were administered by Aston Villa. Perhaps it was fitting that, just as Manchester United did five hours earlier on Saturday, Unai Emery’s side did it while losing a lead. But their draw against Chelsea made the obvious a mathematical certainty. United cannot finish in the top four. And, barring a remarkable shift in Uefa coefficients between the Premier League and the Bundesliga, Champions League qualification is gone. United’s bid for it arguably did not die a death. It may be truer to say it was never really alive: Erik ten Hag’s tactical plan for the season looked destroyed by Wolves in their opening game. Since then, United have never been in the top four.

They don’t rank in the top four for goals for, or expected goals, or the fewest goals conceded or expected goals against, for their home record or their away record, for their results in the second half of 2023 or the first four months of 2024. They are in the top four for the most shots against, courtesy of their ridiculous style of play, but that is scarcely an achievement. For many of the statistical markers – possession, pass-completion rate, shots on target – they are a mid-table team; for some, a bottom-half side. If the numbers suggest they are flattered by sixth position, so does the naked eye.

If United’s Champions League and Carabao Cup campaigns were crushing failures, if their season could be salvaged in part by the FA Cup, the degree of disappointment about their Premier League efforts remains to be determined. It could be mitigated by qualification for the Europa League or exacerbated if they do not even reach the Conference League. It is mitigated by injuries, though Ten Hag cites them so often it feels like his default excuse, sounding oblivious to the reality that many a rival has also suffered from them. It comes in the context of a division where eight clubs can now harbour genuine ambitions of a top-four finish.

But this is United, the fallen giants who are likely to have the unwanted distinction of being the biggest club outside the Champions League next season. United, where the price of a failure to get a top-four finish has tended to be the sack. Not under Sir Jim Ratcliffe and Ineos yet, though the Glazer family remain co-owners. For now, at a club with an overhaul of senior figures in other departments, the manager’s status remains uncertain.

A verdict from the stands may have been instructive. There were boos when Ten Hag substituted Kobbie Mainoo and Rasmus Hojlund; he later argued it was to protect rookies from injury, but it is not the first time his changes have brought dissent. The Old Trafford faithful don’t tend to call for managers to go – though in the last 23 years of Sir Alex Ferguson’s reign, there were precious few reasons to – but it is questionable how much support Ten Hag commands in either the stands or the boardroom.

He argued that judgement should be postponed because of youth, though only three of his 22 most-used players are under 24. “We built this club back and that takes time,” he said. “We built this by bringing in young players.”

He studied United’s history and argued comparisons with their great sides were unfair. “Oh, absolutely. They are way off the mark,” he said, alighting instead on a team in transition and sending a message to the punditocracy. “But also the great Manchester United teams, we forget they were also built. I have seen, I think, in 2004-05 they also didn’t play that great football. They were building but everyone forgets, even the players who were by that time in the team, they forget they were struggling and that they needed time to progress.”

Nostalgia can blur and blind the difficult times, suggesting everything was golden in the past. United became champions of Europe in 2008, three years after a side with a young Wayne Rooney and Cristiano Ronaldo scored a mere 58 league goals. Yet they conceded just 26, whereas Ten Hag’s United have let in 28 since Christmas. They scarcely have the air of future Champions League winners.

And if United are building, it invites the question as to why the foundations look weaker than last year. Ten Hag was more entitled to plead for time then, but his debut campaign meant he had less need to. United were third then, but progress is less impressive when followed by regression. Ten Hag, who inherited a shambolic side who finished sixth, has a shambolic side in sixth. He branded them “one of the most dynamic and entertaining” teams in the division but too much of the entertainment comes at their expense. They have conceded six late goals in the final 10 minutes in the last month alone.

Those goals have cost them nine points and ensured their objectives for the Premier League campaign will not be realised. It may leave Ten Hag in greater peril. And if he is saved, it might not be by his unconvincing explanations as much as by an absence of alternatives.