Every Six Nations result predicted as Ireland win title decider and Wales don't have enough
Here we go again then, the greatest annual tournament in the world is upon us once more - and we can anticipate two months’ worth of spills, thrills, controversies, great rugby.
And, doubtless, some not so good passages of play, too.
Ireland, as defending champions, are still the team to beat, but how well they cope in the absence of Lions coach Andy Farrell remains to be seen.
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What do we make of England? Steve Borthwick's honeymoon period as coach is over, their poor losing run means he is a man under pressure and he needs to start turning narrow defeats into victories.
Scotland will miss their injured captain Sione Tuipulotu, but with Finn Russell knitting everything together they still boast a back division to take on anybody. Their problem has been consistency, Gregor Townsend needs to address that this time around.
The only consistency with Warren Gatland’s Wales, I’m afraid, is the one that has seen them lose 12 matches on the trot. France first up in Paris next Friday night hardly offers respite. That is followed by Italy in Rome, a game Wales teams of the past would have been expected to routinely win, but this time could prove to be one heck of an obstacle.
It will be the match Italy target above any other, they have far more belief in themselves these days. As such it’s an 80 minutes that could pile up yet more problems for Gatland and Welsh rugby.
Looking for positives, there were three games last year where, with better decision making at key moments, Wales could have won, rather than lost narrowly. That happens with inexperience. Get those things right in the heat of battle this time and perhaps we can start to see the upturn in fortunes a rugby-made nation craves.
Will the good times return? I’m not so sure - and it hurts me to write that as a proud Welshman.
France are the opposite to Wales, bang in form after a brilliant set of autumn results which saw them beat New Zealand among others, brim-full of seasoned campaigners to help the younger players and undoubted title contenders. Thomas Ramos, one of the best full-backs in the world, settled into the No.10 position with consummate ease and considerable success in November and has been a prolific scorer in the Six Nations too.
But who needs an outside-half when you have a guy by the name of Antoine Dupont just inside? The great man is back - France, and the Six Nations - will be much better for it.
It’s shaping up to be a closely fought tournament. Some matches might be too tight to call, but having been asked to get out my crystal ball this is how I see the Six Nations shaping up, game by game…
ROUND ONE
France 34-18 Wales
Two teams with completely contrasting fortunes. The French had an excellent autumn, impressively taking the scalp of New Zealand and have been developing their team well over the past three years. They are an outstanding side, forwards and backs, as well as having an influential bench.
Wales, by contrast, are in a mess. They head to Paris with those record losses on the trot behind them, question marks over whether Gatland is the right man to lead the team - and indeed the whole coaching structure under him.
The first match often sets the trend for the entire tournament - and France away is hardly an ideal start for Wales. It’ll be unlucky defeat number 13 for them.
Scotland 27-18 Italy
This is the perfect way for the Scots to ease their way into the Championship. Italy are nobody’s mugs any more - they proved that in beating Gregor Townsend’s men in Rome last year.
Stung by that shock loss, Scotland will be determined to get off to a flier this time. They will, too.
Ireland 21-16 England
Borthwick’s side will head to Dublin with belief after surprisingly beating the Irish at Twickenham 12 months ago. This is also the first game for the men in green without Farrell, so it remains to be seen how they go.
But Ireland have a settled side, good structures in place, and I expect them to come out guns blazing with too much for the Red Rose thanks to home advantage.
There were question marks about how Ireland would fare without Jonathan Sexton, but the transition has been seamless with Jack Crowley, and more recently young Sam Prendegast, filling the No.10 void capably.
ROUND TWO
Italy 26-21 Wales
The most important game of the Six Nations for Wales. Who would have envisaged that a few years ago? They simply HAVE to break the losing sequence by this point.
Whether they will or not is another matter. Indeed I fear it could go horribly wrong in Rome.
There is always an element of wishful thinking when I forecast how Wales will fare in a match, but Italy are at home and I’m genuinely worried the horror run will continue.
England 21-27 France
Two years ago the French came to Twickenham and put 53 points on Borthwick’s team. At least last season the 33-31 final scoreline in Paris resembled the kind of close encounter we are more accustomed to seeing when these two clash.
It will be close again, but France are too powerful and will hold the edge.
Just.
Scotland 20-29 Ireland
The one thing we can guarantee here is points. Lots of them, which tends to have been the way through history when these two have locked horns.
Scotland can only play an expansive game. Ireland can go toe-to-toe that way if they want, or they can also take a forward dominated approach.
Their tactics might be dependent upon the weather, but either way the Irish will have too much.
ROUND THREE
Wales 17-33 Ireland
After two away games Gatland’s men will be back on home soil, hoping the Cardiff factor plays its part.
The Principality Stadium tended to be a fortress on Gatland’s first watch as coach, as proven in landing three Grand Slams, but sadly those days have gone. Ireland will be well into the tournament by this point, a couple of important wins behind them, and they won’t be slipping up.
England 26-21 Scotland
Townsend’s team have won four in a row against the old enemy and only lost one in seven. I’m not sure quite why they have the Indian sign on England, other than it’s obviously Scotland’s biggest match of the season and like Wales they raise their game a couple of levels whenever the English are in sight.
But the class of Marcus Smith can sway things the way of the Red Rose.
Italy 19-33 France
Should be a walkover for Les Bleus. That’s the natural thought process. Then I look at what happened in Paris last year when they only drew 13-13 with the Azzurri.
No such shock this time. Expect France - and the Six Nations - to revert to rugby type.
ROUND FOUR
Ireland 27-18 France
The two best teams in Europe, the title decider, the Grand Slam clincher.
What a way to kick off round four at a sold-out Aviva Stadium.
This will be a titanic clash and I expect the Championship to be decided right here.
The age-old cliche of which French side will turn up on the day has gone since Shaun Edwards started working on their discipline. They are far more consistent these days, less prone to the self-inflicted wounds.
But unfortunately for France the game is in Dublin and with home advantage Ireland are favourites. It’ll be one heck of an 80 minutes though, no quarter asked or given.
Scotland 31-21 Wales
This will be full of running rugby, with tries aplenty. For the neutral it will be among the best matches of the tournament, see-sawing one way, then the other.
But by the end the Scots will probably prevail. WIth Finn Russell at 10, Blair Kinghorn as full-back, Huw Jones in the centre and dynamic tryscoring wings, I just fear the Welsh defence will crack.
Once more, home advantage will be the key.
England 40-12 Italy
You just can't see anything other than an England win. The only question is by what margin?
It will be comfortable.
ROUND FIVE
Italy 18-34 Ireland
On to Super Saturday. I expect Ireland to be going for a Grand Slam in this one - and they won’t slip up.
Italy may make it a little awkward for a while, but Irish momentum and class will tell in the closing half hour.
A comfortable win in the end - and the title.
Wales 23-28 England
Wales were heading for a Wooden Spoon under Gareth Jenkins’ stewardship back in 2007 when their fly-half James Hook went through the scoring card - try, penalty, conversion and drop goal - to win their last game 27-18.
Can that happen again 18 years on with the Cardiff factor?
Personally I’d like to think so, but that Cardiff hoodoo that used to affect England so badly disappeared a while back. It’s just another game to them these days.
By this stage I worry about the sort of XV Wales will be able to field, given injuries are inevitable during the tournament and Gatland is already struggling for choice.
They haven’t got the strength in depth to cope like England.
I fervently hope I’m wrong, but I foresee back-to-back tournament Wooden Spoons for Gatland.
Cue more crisis in Welsh rugby and question marks over the coach.
As I say, let's just hope I'm proven wrong.
France 30-21 Scotland
Les Bleus will wind it up with a win, but they’ll still be somewhat underwhelmed at this point given Ireland will have taken the title earlier in the day.
PRICEY’S FINAL SIX NATIONS ORDER
Ireland
France
England
Scotland
Italy
Wales
