Explained: How Aston Villa can clinch Champions League top eight spot after shock Bayern Munich boost
Aston Villa’s chances of securing a place in the top eight of the Champions League league phase table were boosted by Bayern Munich’s 3-0 shock defeat to Feyenoord.
The German giants would have moved above Villa in the standings if they had avoided defeat at De Kuip on Wednesday night, but they lost spectacularly, which rules them out of competing for a top eight finish in the final matchweek. Villa passed up on their own chance of holding a top eight position before they host Celtic next Wednesday as they lost 1-0 to Monaco at the Stade Louis II.
After full-time on Tuesday, Unai Emery admitted his side had probably blown their chance of avoiding a two-legged play-off in February. “When we are playing games like today, it’s important to get three points because I think we lost the opportunity to get in the top eight,” Emery conceded. “Today was the key.”
READ MORE: Aston Villa in huge £262m Deloitte update as Chris Heck states 'global' force plan
READ MORE: Monchi announces key Aston Villa appointment
READ | Tyrone Mings fires 'ruthless' Aston Villa demand as next step revealed
READ | Every word angry Unai Emery said about Monaco defeat, Duran mistake and Buendia
But after Bayern and Brest both lost their matchweek seven games, Villa are sitting in ninth place with a chance of pouncing if teams above them fail to win. Simply put, if Villa beat Celtic and one of Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta or Bayer Leverkusen fail to win, then there’s a strong chance Emery’s side finish in the top eight.
Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille and Brest are all capable of hitting 16 points too, but their goal difference is worse than Villa’s; Monaco’s by two goals and the other three teams by three goals, although they have all scored more than Villa.
Inter, who are ahead of Atletico in fourth place, could also be caught by Villa if they lose to Monaco. But it would be the Ligue 1 side replacing Inter in the top eight if they were to win by two more goals than Villa do against Celtic.
Villa could also overtake Leverkusen even if the Bundesliga team beat Sparta Praha at home. That would be the case if Emery’s side won by two more goals than Leverkusen manage in their match.
The most likely situation for Villa to gatecrash the top eight would be to beat Celtic and one of Atletico, Milan, Atalanta or Leverkusen slip up by not winning. Atletico have been on a terrific run of form of late under Diego Simeone and are expected to get the job done against RB Salzburg away considering the Austrian outfit have only taken three points in the league phase.
Milan, meanwhile, face a tricky away match against Dinamo Zagreb. The Croatian side must win themselves to give them hope of finishing in the Champions League knockout play-off positions.
But possibly the most likely outcome for Villa to finish in the top eight would be Barcelona avoiding defeat to Atalanta. The Italians will likely have to beat the Spanish giants to stay in the top eight, with Villa, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille and Brest having the chance to better their points tally of 14.
Monaco face a difficult challenge to win at Inter, while Feyenoord and Lille play each other in France. Brest host Real Madrid.
A top eight finish for Villa would bank them a place in the Champions League round of 16, allowing them to bypass a two-legged knockout play-off. If Villa weren’t to seal a spot in the top eight, they’d play six games in the space of 16 days next month.
