The Shuffle Up series keeps rolling along, my priced groups of players at each position. Today we get to the Shuffle that really matters, the most difficult position to manage.

Starting pitchers. Oh, sure. This should be a real hoot.

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If I could have just one singular player answer from a future-telling genie, I'd ask for the SP1 right answer for the fresh season ahead. If you connect on that player, your winning odds instantly push through the roof. Alas, pitchers are forever the sirens of fantasy baseball, tempting you with sweet promises that so often are not realized.

Starting Pitcher Overview

It's really not their fault, of course. Throwing a baseball at the professional level requires taxing, perhaps unreasonable, demands on your upper body. Shoulders, forearms, elbows; they often can't handle the strain of the repeated act, especially now that velocity has become such a huge part of the game. As a result of pitcher injuries, MLB clubs do all they can to "save" their pitchers — quicker hooks from start to start, lower IP target for a season, proactive trips to the injured list when even the slightest physical problem arises.

It's open to debate if the modern pitcher-handling theories are more gift than curse — perhaps in an effort to coddle and protect their prized arms, teams are actually setting them up to fail. That's a discussion for another day.

Any fantasy strategy can work if you pick the right players, but I am unlikely to use an outlier strategy on pitching. I won't be the team that loads up early, and I won't be the team that waits the longest either. In a typical mixed league I'd like to get three arms I feel reasonably good about, then look for plausible upside later (like any other solid manager will). I will also be on the lookout for middle-relief heroes, especially in-season when fresh ones emerge — with fewer wins coming from starting pitchers in recent years, non-closing relief pitchers have risen in value.

When in doubt, try to find good pitchers tied to solid teams and non-threatening ballparks. It's common sense, but often common sense is the best part of your fantasy toolbox.

Have some disagreements? Good, that’s why we have a game. I welcome your reasoned disagreement over at X (@scott_pianowski) or on Blue Sky (@pianow.bsky.social).

Tier 1: The Big Tickets

• $31 Tarik Skubal

• $29 Paul Skenes

• $28 Zack Wheeler

• $26 Logan Gilbert

• $25 Corbin Burnes

• $24 Chris Sale

• $23 George Kirby

• $23 Cole Ragans

• $23 Dylan Cease

• $23 Gerrit Cole

• $22 Garrett Crochet

Skenes is basically unhittable but the 98.9 average fastball makes me worried for his future health. He didn't work especially deep in games last year, to a lesser extent because of efficiency but mostly because of team design. The goal is to take the safety gloves off this year. Last season's 1.96 ERA wasn't completely validated by the estimators, but a healthy Skenes is going to dominate. It's probably not my aim to take him in the early second round, but I can see why some will do that.

Wheeler just posted a career season at age 34, despite a slight fastball velocity dip. BABIP was very good to him — he'll probably give back some of that .246 number from last year. The age is a mild concern, but when you imagine a horse on the mound, you think about someone with Wheeler's body type (6-foot-4, 195 pounds).

It's important to understand Seattle has the most pitcher-favorable park in the majors, so any of its starters are good targets. We'll start with Gilbert, who has been durable for three straight years and improves his strikeout rate every season. Last year's dreamy .887 WHIP probably can't repeat, but there's a delightful floor here, and you're getting a pitcher stepping into his age-28 season. Sounds like a nifty Round 3 target.

The Braves had an upside-down season in 2024 — somehow they kept Sale healthy for about five months, but just about the entire lineup got hurt. A more normal runout seems likely for 2025 — let's target their hitters, and push Sale back to 20-to-25 starts in his age-36 season. I'll need to like the price before I make the click.

Burnes received the expected big check from Arizona, but what pitcher are they getting? He's stepping into the age-30 season and his strikeout rate has tumbled significantly over the last three years. Even with deferments built in, I would have been leery of giving him a six-year contract. And the NL West has problems on the schedule — the Dodgers are obviously loaded, the Padres can ruin your afternoon and despite a mediocre Colorado lineup, Coors Field is still a pesky assignment. It's possible I won't roster Burnes at all in 2025.

Tier 2: Legitimate Building Blocks

• $20 Blake Snell

• $20 Michael King

• $20 Framber Valdez

• $18 Yoshinobu Yamamoto

• $18 Pablo López

• $17 Shota Imanaga

• $17 Bryce Miller

• $17 Max Fried

• $16 Luis Castillo

• $16 Logan Webb

• $16 Bailey Ober

Ober is always an odd watch because, for a 6-foot-9 pitcher, he has a surprisingly ordinary fastball, just under 92 mph. But he's a control master and he has bumped his strikeout rate two straight years. Minnesota's home park is slightly favorable to offense, but not in a jagged way. Ober has established a boring reliability that is generally affordable on draft day.

Webb has a profile I generally like to target, a durable guy who keeps the ball on the ground. He was unlucky with hit sequencing last year and never really had the feel of his change, but an added cutter led to better results down the stretch. The San Francisco ballpark and focus on defense will always help him. Webb's a target for me, in part because these are his boring veteran years.

King needed a month to get his sea legs in San Diego, and he was dominating after that (2.42 ERA, .219 batting average against). Petco Park is the safest pitcher yard in the National League, even as it's not quite as extreme as it was in an earlier era. King is a known quantity now but perhaps slightly underpriced as draft season opens.

Tier 3: Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down

• $15 Jacob deGrom

• $15 Aaron Nola

• $15 Freddy Peralta

• $15 Tyler Glasnow

• $14 Spencer Schwellenbach

• $14 Hunter Greene

• $13 Tanner Bibee

• $13 Sonny Gray

• $13 Zac Gallen

• $12 Roki Sasaki

• $12 Hunter Brown

• $12 Spencer Strider

• $11 Joe Ryan

• $11 Justin Steele

• $11 Jack Flaherty

• $11 Kevin Gausman

• $11 Seth Lugo

• $10 Grayson Rodriguez

• $10 Carlos Rodón

• $10 Kodai Senga

• $10 Yusei Kikuchi

• $10 Reynaldo López

• $10 Sandy Alcantara

• $10 Sean Manaea

• $10 Luis Gil

• $9 Shane McClanahan

• $9 Bryan Woo

• $9 Jared Jones

• $9 Cristopher Sánchez

As a baseball fan, there's no pitcher I'd rather see stay healthy than deGrom. His salad days with the Mets became appointment television for me, and I'll never forget the amazing 15 starts deGrom gave us in 2021 (1.08 ERA, 0.554 WHIP — wiffle ball numbers). Alas, deGrom has had a pair of Tommy John surgeries, in addition to forearm and shoulder trouble. He's entering his age-37 season, too. How many innings would satisfy you as a deGrom manager? Is 100 a pipe dream? Would 85 be enough to satiate? Would deGrom consider a move to the bullpen if the team suggested it?

The current deGrom price is heavy — he's SP12 from early Yahoo drafts and SP10 in the NFBC pools. I'll need a price correction before I take the plunge. I hope my caution is unnecessary, but this is not a spot where I can dream about upside.

Nola has a lot of traits I admire — he's durable, has excellent control, owns a nifty curve. But you wonder if it's around the plate too much because he has regular problems with home runs and his ERA over the last four years is a non-helpful 3.95. The Philly ballpark is basically neutral for runs but it's a homer-friendly yard, too. As Nola turns into his age-32 season, I see more downside than upside.

That sound you heard in mid-May 2024 was fantasy managers dropping Brown left and right, as the Houston righty had an ERA in the mid-7s. But the Astros stuck with Brown and he finally found the right pitch mix, pitching to an outstanding 2.31 ERA the rest of the way. Brown has the type of profile that will likely see his ADP rise in the next month, so the earlier you draft, the better. It's an age-26 season and he's always been seen as a potential ace. He sure looks like he's figured it out.

Glasnow is like most of the LAD pitchers — the goal is to pitch about 100-130 innings in the regular season, then be healthy for the playoffs. Glasnow was shockingly healthy for about four months last year, but an elbow problem cost him the final quarter, plus the playoffs. The Dodgers already have nine toes in the postseason, and Glasnow is probably the pitcher who needs the most careful handling. You'll get elite innings here, it's just a matter of how many.

Tier 5: Some Plausible Upside

• $8 Shane Baz

• $8 Brandon Pfaadt

• $7 Shohei Ohtani

• $7 Robbie Ray

• $7 Ryan Pepiot

• $7 Zach Eflin

• $7 José Berríos

• $6 MacKenzie Gore

• $6 Yu Darvish

• $6 Brandon Woodruff

• $6 Ronel Blanco

• $5 Taj Bradley

• $5 Tanner Houck

• $5 Bowden Francis

• $5 Justin Verlander

• $4 Nathan Eovaldi

• $4 Nick Pivetta

• $4 Clarke Schmidt

• $4 Walker Buehler

• $4 Ranger Suárez

• $4 Michael Wacha

• $4 Max Scherzer

Pfaadt will show up on a fair amount of breakout or sleeper lists because he was perhaps the unluckiest pitcher with ERA last year (batted-ball metrics say he was almost a full run unlucky). Of course, if you iron out that to natural luck, we're still talking about a 3.78 ERA, hardly an asset. But the strikeouts and walks are trending in the right direction, he's always had a pedigree and he's still merely 26. If you're in a live draft, get the name right — it's pronounced "Fought." Put him on your upside list.

Berríos is sort of the poor man's Nola — a control master and durability king who doesn't have enough raw stuff to dominate hitters. Berrios posted a 3.60 ERA last year but the batted-ball data suggests he was over a full run fortunate. That's the type of regression candidate you want to avoid. That said, Berrios still has a cheap ADP and, on some roster builds, reliable innings make sense. Just realize there's almost no upside here.

Player development isn't always linear but it's nice when it is — it's like answering a question on the math SATs. We like patterns. Gore kept his strikeout rate similar while trimming his walks and homers allowed. Now he enters the age-26 season. Unfortunately, the NL East has three daunting opponents he'll see regularly, but Gore is likely priced at his floor, with a clear upside case present.

Tier 6: Bargain Bin

• $4 Charlie Morton

• $3 Spencer Arrighetti

• $3 Nick Lodolo

• $3 Drew Rasmussen

• $3 Kutter Crawford

• $3 Mitch Keller

• $3 Kumar Rocker

• $3 Nestor Cortes Jr.

• $2 Gavin Williams

• $2 Jeffrey Springs

• $2 Reese Olson

• $2 Jackson Jobe

• $2 Merrill Kelly

• $2 Luis Severino

• $2 Jesús Luzardo

• $2 Andrew Painter

• $2 Chris Bassitt

• $2 Kyle Harrison

• $2 Lucas Giolito

• $1 A.J. Puk

• $1 Brayan Bello

• $1 Erick Fedde

• $1 David Festa

• $1 Matthew Boyd

• $1 Nick Martinez

• $1 Tomoyuki Sugano

• $1 Brady Singer

• $1 Bobby Miller

• $1 Clayton Kershaw