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Fantasy Basketball Trade Analyzer: Time to move off Jimmy Butler?

mike barner
·5-min read

We are nearly a month into the NBA season. With a decent sample size in hand, we have a bit of a better gauge of the trade market for fantasy basketball. Let's discuss some players to buy low on, sell high on or hold based on the first month of the season.

Buy

The trade from the Thunder to the Bulls set Giddey up with the potential to see a significant boost in his fantasy value. Last season, he averaged 12.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game, with the Thunder cutting his playing time to 25 minutes per game. While he has started every game for the Bulls, he hasn't seen a huge increase in playing time, averaging 27 minutes per game. The result has been averages of 12.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.3 3-pointers per game.

Giddey's scoring numbers aren't great because he is shooting just 41.6% from the field. He shot at least 47.5% in both of the last two seasons, so his efficiency should at least improve some as the season moves along. A couple of recent blowouts have skewed Giddey's playing time. Of the Bulls' 15 games, Giddey has logged at least 28 minutes in 10 of them. He is still a good source for rebounds and assists, and with the potential for his scoring numbers to improve, this is a buy-low opportunity to acquire him.

After averaging 18.7 points per game last season, Sexton is averaging just 15.8 points per game this year. That is despite him shooting 44.4% from behind the arc. Part of the reason for his decline in production is that his usage rate has dropped from 27.5% last season to 24.6% this season.

After this season, Sexton has just one more season left on his contract. His salary isn't all that unreasonable, either, at $19.2 million next season. Will he remain on the rebuilding Jazz through the trade deadline? Will they trade veteran Jordan Clarkson, who is also under contract through next, but at an even cheaper salary? There is a path to Sexton seeing his usage rate increase at some point in the season based on trades, but even if it doesn't significantly, he can still provide value to fantasy managers. It might not cost much to acquire him in a trade right now.

Sell

After missing four straight games with an ankle injury, Butler returned Monday to record 30 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and one steal against the 76ers. He played 34 minutes, so he clearly wasn't limited by the injury. For the season, Butler is now averaging 17.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.4 steals per game. His numbers would be better if not for him only playing seven minutes in a game against the Nuggets when he suffered his ankle injury.

When Butler is on the floor, he can be a great fantasy option. The problem is, he hasn't played more than 65 games since the 2016-17 season. He turned 35 years old in September, so asking him to be healthier this season is a tall order. He's healthy right now and just produced a monster stat line, so float him out in trade offers before he misses any more time.

Selling Kuzma right now would be selling low. He is averaging just 17.0 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. Part of the reason for his decline in scoring is that he has shot just 40.9% from the field and 29.2% from behind the arc. Last season, he shot 46.3% from the field and 33.6% on 3-pointers.

The good news is that Kuzma is showing signs of regaining his efficiency, shooting 46.3% from the field over five games since returning from a groin injury. It might take another week for his averages to get better, but at least start thinking about trading him in fantasy now. He has played at least 30 minutes in a game just one time this season. With the Wizards being blown out often, he could find himself on the bench for the majority of the fourth quarter many nights. He might have more name value right now than actual fantasy value.

Hold

Daniels is firmly in the hunt for the Most Improved Player award. After playing limited minutes with the Pelicans during his first two seasons in the league, Daniels is averaging 34 minutes per game for the Hawks. He has made the most of his expanded role, averaging 14.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 3.4 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.2 3-pointers per game.

The Hawks are finally starting to get healthier with Bogdan Bogdanović returning from his hamstring injury Monday. That marked just the second game that he has played this season. However, given how well Daniels has played, he has likely cemented himself as a starter with plenty of minutes moving forward. He can be a league-winner when it comes to steals, so don't panic because of the return of Bogdanović.

Hart is off to a terrific start with averages of 13.7 points, 8.9 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.2 3-pointers per game. He has shot 58.4% from the field, which is a huge improvement over his 43.4% mark from the field last season. Prior to that, Hart had shot at least 50.4% from the field in back-to-back seasons.

With Hart excelling in so many areas, this might seem like a good opportunity to sell high on him in fantasy. However, holding onto him might be the right move. He is logging 37 minutes per game this season and should continue to play a ton with the Knicks having a thin bench. The combination of his versatile skillset with a head coach in Tom Thibodeau, who likes to play his starters a ton, makes Hart a very appealing option.