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Fantasy Football Make or Break: Can we trust Brian Thomas Jr. in lineups without Trevor Lawrence?

tera roberts
Yahoo Fantasy Contributor
·7-min read

Last week’s Make or Break article was primarily focused on players stepping up to increased workloads with injury opportunities along with creative lineup strategies — shout out to Cade Otton!

This week’s article focuses on players in clear, defined roles but potentially brutal Week 10 matchups that could make you hesitant to turn to them.

There’s no question that the players on this list have clear upside, but what’s our trust level and are we willing to take on the risk?

I don’t often include quarterbacks in this column, but I felt compelled to talk about Nix this week. As the season has progressed, I’ve found myself becoming an undercover Nix supporter. I say supporter because I’m not quite at the level of “truther” — I won’t go that far — but it’s tough to deny Nix’s strengths from a fantasy perspective. His rushing upside has been tremendous this season. Nix has the fifth-most rushing attempts, fifth-most rushing yards and third-most rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. What’s even more impressive is that he’s maintained that level of production on the ground while being evasive in the pocket, taking only 15 sacks. For comparison, Daniel Jones, who has a similar level of attempts and yardage, has been sacked 27 times.

After the first four games of the season, Nix’s lowest fantasy output has been 14 points with a ceiling of 30 points, and he’s finished in the top 10 quarterbacks three times. As he’s gained experience, he’s become more of a “make” rather than a “break” player. However, that could change this week against Kansas City.

The Chiefs rank 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. That number doesn’t tell the whole story as their stats are somewhat skewed. They rank in the top 10 for passing touchdowns and passing yardage allowed, an impressive feat considering their schedule has included the Ravens, Bengals, Falcons, 49ers and Buccaneers. In a perfect world, you would have grabbed Nix off waivers and have the flexibility to stash him for upcoming favorable matchups rather than starting him against Kansas City.

In reality, if you roster Nix or picked him up recently off waivers, you might be dealing with bye week issues at quarterback, making Nix your best option. Kansas City’s defense could make things tough for Nix, potentially limiting him as we saw against the Jets in Week 4, where he had just 12 completions for 64 yards and his worst rushing performance of the season with five attempts for just 3 yards.

We should also consider that Denver’s defense is one of the stronger units in the league, so this will likely be a low-scoring game with a point total of 41.5. I’m pro-Nix, but he’s an extremely risky play this week.

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Mason Rudolph has put a little pep in Tennessee’s step, but the Titans are still a complete mess. Despite their struggles, they've been somewhat hospitable from a fantasy perspective. I discussed the upside Tony Pollard has in my Pulse Check article earlier this week and he's not the only player with potential. After a rough patch, Ridley has bounced back with a significant increase in target share since Rudolph has started and DeAndre Hopkins was dealt.

Over the past two games, Ridley has 15 receptions on 23 targets for over 200 yards. Volume is no longer an issue; the only thing potentially holding Ridley back is his ability to capitalize on it. Touchdowns have been scarce, which is concerning for a player like Ridley, who thrives off touchdowns and yardage rather than receptions. Now, Ridley faces a difficult Week 10 matchup against the L.A. Chargers.

No quarterback has thrown more than 257 yards against the Chargers this season. Odds are against Rudolph hitting strong volume, and there’s another issue — it’s possible that Will Levis could return this week. Ridley’s path to success is continued dominance in targets for a high-volume outing this week and the potential is there. While there have been struggles against the Chargers, solid performances have emerged as well. Last week, Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy both had over 70 yards, with Tillman scoring a touchdown. The prior week, Chris Olave had eight receptions and over 100 yards. Ridley could absolutely take advantage of a hefty workload and still thrive this week.

It’s been a rough season overall for Dowdle. He began in an ugly committee with Ezekiel Elliott, with neither being a viable fantasy option. As the season continued, he ascended, and in Week 5, he finally got a solid workload with 20 carries for 87 yards plus a receiving touchdown. Unfortunately, injuries, illness and a bye week halted his progress before he returned in Week 9 to finish as the overall RB9.

Just when you were starting to feel slightly comfortable with Dowdle, the Dallas offense is descending further into chaos. Dak Prescott suffered a torn hamstring and is set to miss extended time, if not the rest of the season. CeeDee Lamb is dealing with an injury as well. If the Dallas offense is affected as a whole, the run game could struggle. Dowdle might have volume but limited yardage and touchdown opportunities.

There is some potential saving grace here. Dowdle has had strong receiving work. In fact, while he only has three touchdowns on the season, all have come through the air. This isn’t the first time we’ve seen Cooper Rush at quarterback, either. Though the sample size is limited, Rush was not prone to checking down during his five-game stretch in 2022.

Much to Elliott’s dismay, Dowdle is clearly the best back in Dallas and should continue as the lead back moving forward. However, with Dowdle’s lack of upside and a tough matchup against Philadelphia’s run defense, he’s an extremely risky play in Week 10.

We were on quite a hot streak with Thomas and touchdowns heading into Week 9. Before last week’s game, Thomas Jr. had scored four touchdowns in the previous five games, excelling through efficiency. Unfortunately for Thomas, when those touchdowns don’t come, the floor can be a bit ugly due to inconsistent volume from Trevor Lawrence. Last week, his two receptions on four targets for 22 yards against the Eagles were a harsh reminder of this.

In Jacksonville’s defense, Philadelphia’s defense has taken a turn. We knew heading into the season that its young squad would need time to develop, and Jacksonville wasn’t its first or last victim. This week, however, the Jaguars face a Minnesota defense trending in the opposite direction. After a strong start that had opposing quarterbacks’ heads spinning, the Vikings’ defense has become very exploitable (last week's dominance over the Colts not included). To make matters even worse, Lawrence is dealing with a shoulder injury and unlikely to play in Week 10.

Last week, we saw an increase in volume to Evan Engram, which was expected with the injury to Christian Kirk. However, for the Jags to succeed in the passing game, they need to push volume to Thomas. Although Jacksonville was able to stay fairly competitive with Philadelphia last week, its defense was still gutted by Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. The Vikings will likely take advantage of the Jags’ defense as well, forcing Jacksonville to play catch-up, which should benefit Thomas.

I have a mild level of trust with Lawrence pushing volume ... but with Mac Jones? Technically speaking, we’ve never seen Jones with a player of Thomas’ talent. Maybe Jones lights it up Alabama–style but I’m struggling to get on board. Thomas definitely leans harder toward bust potential this week.

There’s a path to volume, and given the targets, Thomas can thrive. However, the risk level is extreme this week.